+Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable

The outline for this post is as follows:

1. The Myth and Its Flaws
2. Context and Analysis (divided into multiple sections)
3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.

1.  The Myth and Its Flaws

In 1997 [677] or 1998, global warming paused / underwent a hiatus [4; 5; 7; 8 - 10; 13; 54; 55; 57; 670; 680], and will likely continue to do so until the 2030s [4; 9; 14; 57; 1182, with 1180]. Moreover, climate shifted in 2001/2002 [2; 3], supporting a prediction of post-2002 global cooling [3]. This rebuts the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) [7; 10; 54; 55; 98] use of climate models [1140] to predict global warming, since the IPCC predicted a warming trend of about ~0.2°C/decade [7; 18; 97; 98; 211; 212, as per 211, 213, and 214; 215; 216, page 133; 217, figure 3; 218, pages 14 - 15; 219; 220, section 3.4; 221 - 223; 224, page 84; 225, page 16; 226; 227, figure 24 on page 456; 228]. Consistent with this lack of warming, as of the beginning of 2019, 2018 would not be one of the top five warmest years in the thermometer record [32].

Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable

The outline for this post is as follows:

1. The Myth and Its Flaws
2. Context and Analysis (divided into multiple sections)
3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
4. References

This is the "main version" version of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.

1.  The Myth and Its Flaws

In 1997 or 1998, global warming paused / underwent a hiatus, and will likely continue to do so until the 2030s. Moreover, climate shifted in 2001/2002, supporting a prediction of post-2002 global cooling. This rebuts the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) use of climate models to predict global warming, since the IPCC predicted a warming trend of about ~0.2°C/decade. Consistent with this lack of warming, as of the beginning of 2019, 2018 would not be one of the top five warmest years in the thermometer record.