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Thursday, February 1, 2018

+Myth: The CCSP Presented Evidence Against the Hot Spot's Existence

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface [19, page 4; 20 - 23; 24, from 31:01 to 31:48]. This region of greater warming is known as the "hot spot" [25, pages 14 and 42; 26; 27, page 6; 28]. The myth claims that a 2006 report of the United States Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) [36, figure 5.7 on page 116] provided evidence against the hot spot's existence [2 - 18]. Many myth advocates resort to deception (or willful avoidance of evidence) in order to defend this myth.

Myth: The CCSP Presented Evidence Against the Hot Spot's Existence

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface. This region of greater warming is known as the "hot spot". The myth claims that a 2006 report of the United States Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) provided evidence against the hot spot's existence. Many myth advocates resort to deception (or willful avoidance of evidence) in order to defend this myth.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

+John Christy Fails to Show that Climate Models Exaggerate CO2-induced Warming

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. Summary and Objections to the Myth
  2. Elaboration on the Myth
  3. Elaborations on the Objections
  4. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  5. References
If you want the "tl;dr" for this post, then I suggest reading sections 1 and 2. Alternatively, if you are familiar with John Christy's claims on tropospheric temperature trends, then simply skip ahead to section 2.

Each numbered point in section 1 corresponds with a numbered portion of section 3. So there is no need to read this entire post; instead, you can look at section 1 to see which numbered point you find interesting, and then go to the corresponding numbered portion in section 3 for further details.

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1. Summary and Objections to the Myth



Climate scientists John Christy and Richard McNider published a paper examining warming in the lower atmosphere. They use this analysis to argue that climate models exaggerate [1; 9] a parameter known as climate sensitivity [2 - 7; 21]; this implies that the models over-estimate warming caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) [1]. Christy+McNider's claim that models over-estimate climate sensitivity is the myth I focus on in this blogpost.

John Christy Fails to Show that Climate Models Exaggerate CO2-induced Warming

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. Summary and Objections to the Myth
  2. Elaboration on the Myth
  3. Elaborations on the Objections
  4. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  5. References
If you want the "tl;dr" for this post, then I suggest reading sections 1 and 2. Alternatively, if you are familiar with John Christy's claims on tropospheric temperature trends, then simply skip ahead to section 2.

Each numbered point in section 1 corresponds with a numbered portion of section 3. So there is no need to read this entire post; instead, you can look at section 1 to see which numbered point you find interesting, and then go to the corresponding numbered portion in section 3 for further details.

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive versions with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1. Summary and Objections to the Myth



Climate scientists John Christy and Richard McNider published a paper examining warming in the lower atmosphere. They use this analysis to argue that climate models exaggerate a parameter known as climate sensitivity; this implies that the models over-estimate warming caused by carbon dioxide (CO2). Christy+McNider's claim that models over-estimate climate sensitivity is the myth I focus on in this blogpost.

Friday, September 15, 2017

+Myth: No Hot Spot Implies Less Global Warming and Support Lukewarmerism

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface. This is known as the "hot spot". The myth states that the lack of a hot spot implies that various factors will not substantially increase global warming to the levels seen in climate models. Thus the lack of a hot spot means that mainstream scientists over-estimate future global warming.