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Friday, July 28, 2017

+Myth: Santer et al. Show that Climate Models are Very Flawed

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaws
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaws



Climate scientist Ben Santer recently co-authored a paper [1]. Santer and his co-authors showed that climate models over-estimated recent atmospheric warming, thereby revealing a deep flaw in the models. The climate models likely exaggerated CO2-induced atmospheric warming, thus vindicating John Christy's and Ted Cruz's claims about the models.

Myth: Santer et al. Show that Climate Models are Very Flawed

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaws
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaws



Climate scientist Ben Santer recently co-authored a paper. Santer and his co-authors showed that climate models over-estimated recent atmospheric warming, thereby revealing a deep flaw in the models. The climate models likely exaggerated CO2-induced atmospheric warming, thus vindicating John Christy's and Ted Cruz's claims about the models.

Monday, July 24, 2017

+Myth: The Sun Caused Recent Global Warming and the Tropical Stratosphere Warmed

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaws
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaws



The tropical stratosphere, a layer of the middle atmosphere, warmed and the Sun caused most of the recent global warming. 

Myth: The Sun Caused Recent Global Warming and the Tropical Stratosphere Warmed

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaws
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaws



The tropical stratosphere, a layer of the middle atmosphere, warmed and the Sun caused most of the recent global warming. 

Friday, July 21, 2017

+Myth: The Tropospheric Hot Spot does not Exist

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface. This is known as the "hot spot" [8; 16, pages 14 and 42; 31, page 6; 32]. The myth claims that there is little-to-no evidence of a hot spot, or the scientific evidence argues against the hot spot's existence.

Myth: The Tropospheric Hot Spot does not Exist

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface. This is known as the "hot spot". The myth claims that there is little-to-no evidence of a hot spot, or the scientific evidence argues against the hot spot's existence.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

+Myth: The Tropospheric Hot Spot is a Fingerprint of CO2-induced Warming

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface. This is known as the "hot spot" [8; 16, pages 14 and 42; 33, page 6; 68]. The myth states that the hot spot is a fingerprint of anthropogenic (human-caused), CO2-induced global warming.

Myth: The Tropospheric Hot Spot is a Fingerprint of CO2-induced Warming

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface. This is known as the "hot spot". The myth states that the hot spot is a fingerprint of anthropogenic (human-caused), CO2-induced global warming.

Monday, July 17, 2017

+Myth: El Niño caused post-1997 global warming

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.



1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



El Niño caused post-1997 global warming. Thus the recent warming is natural, as opposed to anthropogenic or caused by humans.

Purveyors of this myth include Roy Spencer [1], the Daily Caller [2], The Competitive Enterprise Institute [3], Leo Goldstein [4], and Marc Morano [5]. Spencer seems to be the primary purveyor of this myth, since other myth proponents typically cite Spencer [2 - 5].

Myth: El Niño caused post-1997 global warming

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.



1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



El Niño caused post-1997 global warming. Thus the recent warming is natural, as opposed to anthropogenic or caused by humans.

Purveyors of this myth include Roy Spencer, the Daily Caller, The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Leo Goldstein, and Marc Morano. Spencer seems to be the primary purveyor of this myth, since other myth proponents typically cite Spencer.

The myth's flaw: Post-1997 global warming remains, even after one corrects for El Niño.


2. Context and Analysis



During El Niño (also known as the El Niño phase of ENSO or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) the oceans' surface and the lower atmosphere (a.k.a. the troposphere) warm. The strength of El Nino can be measured using the multivariate ENSO index, or MEI. Spencer should be aware of this, since Spencer employed the MEI in his published research.

MEI-corrected temperatures still show post-1997 global warming, as shown in published research and unpublished analyses. Thus El Niño did not cause the post-1997 global warming. Even Spencer's colleague John Christy admits that ENSO did not cause the post-1997 tropospheric warming trend (though Christy gets little else right when it comes to climate science). Figure 1 depicts some MEI-corrected temperature trends:


Figure 1: Relative temperature from 1979 - 2010 for three surface temperature records (GISS, NCDC and CRU) and two lower tropospheric temperature records (RSS and UAH), after correction for ENSO (using MEI), volcanic effects, and changes in solar irradiance [1]. 

In fact, the 2015/2016 El Niño was weaker than (or about as strong as, in some regions) the 1997/1998 El Niño, even though 2015/2016 was warmer than 1997/1998 (as shown in "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades"). Let's illustrate this point using the mid- to upper tropospheric warming that Spencer commented on:


Figure 2: Near global mid- to upper tropospheric temperature averaged for the UAH, NOAA, and RSS analyses [2].  


Figure 3: Multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The red peaks represent El Niño events and the blue troughs represent La Niña events. The relative magnitudes of the peaks and troughs are proportional to the strength of corresponding El Niño and La Niña events [3]. See figure 4 for a representation of some of the uncertainties involved in calculating the magnitude El Niño and La Niña events.


Figure 4: Non-cumulative ENSO index (Niño3.4) based on ocean temperature in the east central equatorial Pacific, up to the year 2016. Niño3.4 is one of several non-cumulative indexes used in generating the non-cumulative MEI shown in figure 5. Red lines indicate the Niño3.4 index values, while the black region represents uncertainty at the 95% confidence level [4].

So given this evidence, why do Spencer and his followers offer defend their myth? Well, they may be (intentionally or unintentionally) conflating the following two claims:
  • El Niño contributed to 2015/2016 being warmer than 2014
  • El Niño contributed to 2015/2016 being warmer than 1997/1998
The first claim is true, since El Niño conditions were stronger in 2015/2016 than 2014. However, since the 2015/2016 El Niño was weaker than the 1997/1998 El Niño (see figure 3), then the second claim is false. It is this second claim that Spencer defends when he claims that the past two decades of warming were natural. So Spencer is defending a false myth.



3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis




4. References


  1. "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010"
  2. "Tropospheric warming over the past two decades"
  3. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (accessed June 12, 2017)
  4. "Ranking the strongest ENSO events while incorporating SST uncertainty"

+Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



There has been no warming for about two decades.

Purveyors of this myth include Christopher Monckton [1, pages 122 and 127; 2, pages 1379, 1385, and 1387], Willie Soon [1, pages 122 and 127; 2, pages 1379, 1385, and 1387], David Legates [1, pages 122 and 127; 2, pages 1379, 1385, and 1387], John Christy [3; 4], Ted Cruz [5, page 1], Anthony Watts [6], Patrick Michaels [7, page 5], and Paul (Chip) Knappenberger [7, page 5].

Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "main version" of this post, which means that this post lacks most of my references and citations. If you would like a more comprehensive version with all the references and citations, then please go to the "+References" version of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.



1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



There has been no warming for about two decades.

Purveyors of this myth include Christopher Monckton, Willie Soon, David LegatesJohn Christy, Ted Cruz, Anthony Watts, Patrick Michaels, and Paul (Chip) Knappenberger.

Beginning of a new series for scientific debunking

After some reflection, I realize that the posts in the "Science (detailed discussion)" section may be too long and off-putting for some readers, even given the shorter summaries I included in each post. To address this issue, I'm going to start a "Quick Scientific Debunking" series with its own page. This series will include shorter posts that address specific myths about science. I will still keep the "Science (detailed discussion)" page; this page will deal with topics in more depth and will debunk sources that contain numerous errors.

I hope people enjoy the new series.