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Tuesday, July 18, 2017

+Myth: The Tropospheric Hot Spot is a Fingerprint of CO2-induced Warming

This post is part of a series addressing issues related to the hot spot. The other parts of this series are listed in the "Myths about the Hot Spot" section of the "Quick Scientific Debunking" page.


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Climate models predict that in moist tropical areas, a region of the lower atmosphere will warm more than Earth's surface. This is known as the "hot spot" [8; 16, pages 14 and 42; 33, page 6; 68]. The myth states that the hot spot is a fingerprint of anthropogenic (human-caused), CO2-induced global warming.

Proponents of this myth include David Evans [1 - 7; 57; 64], Stefan Molyneux [7], Judith Curry [8], Richard Lindzen [9, page 942], S. Fred Singer [10; 76], Christopher Monckton [10; 11], Anthony Watts [12], John Christy [13 - 17], Roger Pielke Sr. [15], Jospeh D'Aleo [16; 17], James Wallace III [16; 17], Steve McIntyre [18], The Daily Caller [19], Paul Homewood [20], Tom Nelson [21], Vladan Ducić [63], and a number of blogs including WattsUpWithThat [22 - 24].

Christy, D'Aleo, Wallace III [16; 17], and an organization known as ICECAP [75], use the myth to attack the US Environmental Protection Agency's attempts to regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

The myth's flaw: the hot spot is not a fingerprint of CO2-induced global warming, since the hot spot occurs with any sufficiently large surface warming in the tropics, especially warming of the tropical oceans [27]. This conclusion is supported by climate models [36, figure 12.a on page 707; 52; 53; 78 - 80], an understanding of the mechanism via which the hot spot forms [27, pages 383 and 384; 31; 32; 65; 66], and observations of the hot spot forming in response to short-term, non-CO2-induced warming [27, page 384; 58; 59, figures 3c, 4a, and 4b; 60; 61, page 102; 62, figure 4; 67, figures 1 and 3; 69, figure 4; 77; 83, figure 3].



2. Context and Analysis



Earth's atmosphere contains multiple layers. The layer closest to the Earth's surface air is known as the troposphere. Above the troposphere is the stratosphere. Tropospheric temperature decreases with increasing height.

Climate models and basic physical theory predict that warming at Earth's surface will cause more water to evaporate, especially over tropical oceans. This evaporation increases the amount of water vapor in the air, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. The vapor-rich air then rises by convection. The water vapor subsequently condenses with increasing tropospheric height, since tropospheric temperature and pressure decreases with increasing height. Condensation of water vapor releases some of the energy that went into evaporating the water. So water vapor condensation causes more warming of the lower troposphere and even more warming of the upper troposphere.

Thus the tropical troposphere will behave like a moist adiabat, in which the rate of warming increases with increasing height in response to water vapor condensing from water-vapor-saturated, moist air [10; 25, page 4; 26, from 31:01 to 31:48; 27 - 30; 81, pages 7 and 8; 82, pages 101 and 102]. So this amplified tropospheric warming has more to do with heat released by condensing water vapor (also known as release of latent heat), and less to do with CO2 emitting radiation into the atmosphere [31; 32; 65; 66]. CO2-induced warming can occur without this tropospheric amplification, particularly in areas that behave quite unlike a moist adiabat. For instance, some of the strongest warming on Earth occurs in deserts [70 - 72], even though this CO2-induced surface warming [72 - 74] comes with relatively little upper tropospheric warming [70 - 72].

It is at this point that the myth comes in. The aforementioned tropical amplification is called the tropical tropospheric hot spot by many myth proponents [8; 16, pages 14 and 42; 33, page 6]. Myth defenders claim the hot spot is expected to be a sign/fingerprint of global warming caused by CO2 [1 - 24]. Many myth proponents support this claim by (intentionally or unintentionally) misrepresenting [1; 2; 5; 6; 11; 12; 20 - 22] the following 2007 figure made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):


Figure 1: Atmospheric temperature change in K/century from 1890 to 1999 in the PCM (Parallel Climate Model) in response to (a) increased solar forcing (from increased solar output), (b) volcanic activity, (c) well-mixed greenhouse gases such as CO2, (d) tropospheric and stratosopheric ozone changes, (e) sulfate aerosols, and (f) the sum of all the aforementioned factors. Darker blues represent cooling and darker reds represent warming. The horizontal axis indicates latitude, with the tropics being between roughly 30N and 30S. The vertical axis indicates altitude, with decreasing atmospheric pressure as altitude increases [35, page 675]. The tropical troposphere lies below 150hPa, while the tropical stratosphere is above 70hPa [34]. Tropical tropospheric warming increases with height in panel f, indicative of the hot spot. This figure is taken from a 2007 report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [35, page 675].


A number of myth proponents claim that since the hot spot most clearly appears in the greenhouse gas portion of figure 1, then the hot spot is a specific sign of greenhouse-gas-induced (and thus CO2-induced) global warming [1; 2; 5; 6; 11; 12; 20 - 22]. Yet myth defenders are wrong on this point; the hot spot in figure 1 is not specific to CO2-induced warming. Instead, the pronounced hot spot appears in the CO2 portion of the figure because CO2 levels increased enough that CO2 caused most of the recent global warming. If instead solar output increased enough to cause most of the recent global warming, then there would be a pronounced hot spot in the solar portion of the figure 1. This is made clear in figure 2 below, which comes from an earlier 2001 IPCC report:



Figure 2: ECHAM3/LSG model (European Center/Hamburg Model 3 / Large Scale Geostrophic coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model) simulation of the atmospheric response to (a) increased solar forcing (from increased solar output) and (b) increased CO2 forcing (from increased CO2 levels). Colored areas indicate significant responses, with darker blues indicating cooling and darker reds indicating warming. The horizontal axis represents latitude, with the tropics being between roughly 30N and 30SThe vertical axis represents altitude, with decreasing atmospheric pressure as altitude increases [36, page 707]. The tropical troposphere lies below 150hPa, while the tropical stratosphere is above 70hPa [34]. Tropical tropospheric warming increases with height in both panels a and b, indicating that the hot spot forms in response to both solar-induced warming and CO2-induced warming. In contrast, strong tropical stratospheric cooling comes with CO2-induced warming, but not solar-induced warming. This figure is taken from a 2001 report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [36, page 707].

So climate models (including models used by the IPCC) show a hot spot in response to solar-induced surface warming [36, figure 12.a on page 707; 52; 53; 78 - 80]. This model-based result addresses whether or not the hot spot is a fingerprint of CO2-induced global warming. Fingerprints distinguish one cause of warming from another cause of warming. For example, strong stratospheric cooling is a fingerprint that occurs with CO2-induced warming [35, pages 674 and 675; 36 - 45], while the sun would not account for most of the observed stratospheric cooling [35, page 674; 39 - 41; 44; 46 - 53] (see figure 2 above). In contrast to strong stratospheric cooling, the hot spot is not a fingerprint since the hot spot occurs with any large warming of Earth's surface in the tropics (especially warming of the ocean surface) [27; 33, pages 7 - 9], as long as the warming triggers the latent heat release discussed above. A hot spot occurs with short-term surface warming that is not caused by CO2 [27, page 384; 58; 59, figures 3c, 4a, and 4b; 60; 61, page 102; 62, figure 4; 67, figures 1 and 3; 69, figure 4; 77; 83, figure 3]. The following source makes this clear:

"In the tropics, moist thermodynamic processes amplify surface warming [...]. Such tropical amplification occurs for any surface warming; it is not a unique signature of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced warming, as has been incorrectly claimed (Christy 2015) [27, page 383]."

Even Roy Spencer, a research colleague of myth proponent John Christy, admits this [54], though Spencer does not get much else right with respect to climate science. 

Thus the hot spot is not very useful for distinguishing different causes of warming. A number of myth proponents acknowledge this point and accept that CO2-independent warming mechanisms would also cause the hot spot (ex: Evans [1, pages 12 - 14; 64], Lindzen [55, page 18], Christy [33, pages 7 - 9 and 20; 56], and Curry [8, 2nd comment]). Yet these proponents defend the myth anyway, even though the myth contradicts basic physics [27, pages 383 and 384; 31; 32; 65; 66], their own position, the climate models they cite [36, figure 12.a on page 707; 52; 53; 78 - 80], and observations of a hot spot from non-CO2-induced warming [27, page 384; 58; 59, figures 3c, 4a, and 4b; 60; 61, page 102; 62, figure 4; 67, figures 1 and 3; 69, figure 4; 77; 83, figure 3]. Oh well.




3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis





4. References


  1. David Evans': "The Missing Hotspot"
  2. http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/
  3. https://chriscolose.wordpress.com/2008/12/20/skepticsdenialists-part-2-hotspots-and-repetition/
  4. https://bravenewclimate.com/2008/08/10/dr-david-evans-born-again-alarmist/
  5. http://naturalclimatechange.us/disproofs-of-agw-hypothesis/the-missing-hotspot-2/
  6. "The missing greenhouse signature"
  7. Stefan Molyneux's video: "Climate Change in 12 Minutes - The Skeptic's Case"
  8. https://judithcurry.com/2015/03/04/differential-temperature-trends-at-the-surface-and-in-the-lower-atmosphere/
  9. "Taking greenhouse warming seriously"
  10. https://www.skepticalscience.com/tropospheric-hot-spot-advanced.htm
  11. "Greenhouse warming? What Greenhouse warming?"
  12. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/04/what-stratospheric-hotspot/
  13. "McNider and Christy: Why Kerry is flat wrong on climate change"
  14. https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2014/02/22/john-christy-richard-mcnider-roy-spencer-flat-earth-hot-spot-figure-baseline/
  15. "What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979?"
  16. "On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot" & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding"
  17. "On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, Abridged Research Report, Second Edition"
  18. https://climateaudit.org/2008/04/26/tropical-troposphere/
  19. "The ‘fingerprint’ of global warming doesn’t exist in the real world, study finds"
  20. https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/09/13/another-attempt-to-find-the-tropical-hotspot/
  21. http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/07/why-agw-hot-spot-wont-happen.html
  22. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/02/why-john-christies-missing-hotspot-matters/
  23. http://www.c3headlines.com/2013/02/ipccs-global-warming-hypothesis-fails-ultimate-test-no-tropical-hotspot-after-17-years-of-immense-co.html
  24. http://www.c3headlines.com/2014/01/ipcc-fail-tropical-hotspot-refuted-by-latest-empirical-evidence-those-stubborn-facts.html
  25. "Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming"
  26. Ray Pierrehumbert's 2012 video: "Tyndall Lecture: GC43I. Successful Predictions - 2012 AGU Fall Meeting"
  27. "Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data"
  28. "Physical mechanisms of tropical climate feedbacks investigated using temperature and moisture trends"
  29. "Regional variation of the tropical water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks"
  30. "Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world"
  31. "Anthropogenic weakening of the tropical circulation: The relative roles of direct CO2 forcing and sea surface temperature change"
  32. "Quantifying contributions of climate feedbacks to tropospheric warming in the NCAR CCSM3.0"
  33. "Extended Summary of the Climate Dialogue on the (missing) tropical hot spot"
  34. "Tropical Tropopause Layer" [doi:10.1029/2008RG000267]
  35. "Climate change 2007: The physical science basis; Chapter 9: Understanding and attributing climate change"
  36. "Climate change 2001: The scientific basis; Chapter 12: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes"
  37. "Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings"
  38. "Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble"
  39. "Attributing the forced components of observed stratospheric temperature variability to external drivers"
  40. "Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature"
  41. "Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere"
  42. "Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method"
  43. "Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature"
  44. "Executive summary: Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere - Understanding and reconciling differences"
  45. "Use of SSU/MSU satellite observations to validate upper atmospheric temperature trends in CMIP5 simulations"
  46. "Comment on “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” by J. A. Curry and P. J. Webster"
  47. "Is the Sun causing global warming?"
  48. "Stratospheric temperature trends over 1979–2015 derived from combined SSU, MLS, and SABER satellite observations"
  49. "Stratospheric temperature changes during the satellite era"
  50. "Spectrally dependent CLARREO infrared spectrometer calibration requirement for climate change detection"
  51. "On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere"
  52. "Robustness of dynamical feedbacks from radiative forcing: 2% solar versus 2× CO2 experiments in an idealized GCM"
  53. "Observed tropospheric temperature response to 11-yr solar cycle and what it reveals about mechanisms"
  54. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/10/hotspots-and-fingerprints/
  55. "Global warming: How to approach the science; by Richard S. Lindzen, Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; November 17, 2010; Testimony: House Subcommittee on Science and Technology"
  56. http://www.climatedialogue.org/the-missing-tropical-hot-spot/#comment-754
  57. https://climatism.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/the-missing-hot-spot/
  58. "Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall"
  59. "Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends"
  60. "Influence of changes in observations on precipitation: A case study for the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)"
  61. "Effect of recent minor volcanic eruptions on temperatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere"
  62. "ENSO‐related moisture and temperature anomalies over South America derived from GPS radio occultation profiles"
  63. "Temperature altitude amplification as a footprint of a possible anthropogenic impact on the climate of Australia"
  64. http://joannenova.com.au/2012/04/so-is-the-hotspot-a-fingerprint-or-signature-is-it-unique/
  65. "Relationships between outgoing longwave radiation and diabatic heating in reanalyses"
  66. "Large differences in reanalyses of diabatic heating in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere"
  67. "Atmospheric climate change detection by radio occultation data using a fingerprinting method"
  68. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/05/new-satellite-upper-troposphere-product-still-no-tropical-hotspot/
  69. "Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements"
  70. "Observational evidence for desert amplification using multiple satellite datasets"
  71. "Detection and analysis of an amplified warming of the Sahara Desert"
  72. "Desert amplification in a warming climate"
  73. "Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979"
  74. "Stronger warming amplification over drier ecoregions observed since 1979"
  75. http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ImportanceoftheHotSpot_093016_.pdf
  76. "Lack of consistency between modeled and observed temperature trends"
  77. "The vertical structure of temperature in the tropics: Different flavors of El Nino"
  78. "Why must a solar forcing be larger than a CO2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change?"
  79. "Exploring the stratospheric/tropospheric response to solar forcing"
  80. "Patterns of tropospheric response to solar variability"
  81. "The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model"
  82. "On the distribution of climate change resulting from an increase in CO2 content of the atmosphere"
  83. "Climate variability and relationships between top-of-atmosphere radiation and temperatures on Earth"