Monday, July 17, 2017

+Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades

The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.

1.  The Myth and Its Flaw

The myth states that there has been, or would be, no warming over or within the past two decades.

Purveyors of this myth include Christopher Monckton [1, pages 122 and 127; 2, pages 1379, 1385, and 1387], Willie Soon [1, pages 122 and 127; 2, pages 1379, 1385, and 1387], David Legates [1, pages 122 and 127; 2, pages 1379, 1385, and 1387], John Christy [3; 4], Ted Cruz [5, page 1], Scott Pruitt [25; 100, page 145], James Delingpole [112; 113], Peter Ferrara [127], Clive Best [196], Dennis Avery [132], David Archibald [94; 95, figure 30 on page 21], Anthony Watts [6; 44], Patrick Michaels [7, page 5 and chapter 13; 155], Paul (Chip) Knappenberger [7, page 5 and chapter 13], Fritz Vahrenholt [147], Sebastian Lüning [133; 147], Judith Curry [40; 44; 120; 149, citing 150; 221; 222; 234; 235] (Curry also predicts no near-future warming for decades [106 - 109; 120; 221; 222; 234]), DocMartyn on Judith Curry's blog [148], David J. Pristash of the Principia Scientific International blog [188], Bob Tisdale [44], William Gray [202, figure 14 on page 13; 203; 204], Don Easterbrook [94; 96; 97; 101, pages 1 and 2; 197, figure 24 on page 456; 239], Habibullo Abdussamatov [121, figure 3; 122; 233], Nils-Axel Mörner [139, section 2.2], François Gervais [194], Joachim Seifert [183, pages 2, figure 2, and figure A4], Frank Lemke [183, pages 2, figure 2, and figure A4], Girma Orssengo [128, figure 3], Carl-Otto Weiss [123, from 14:37 to 18:52; 124, figure 3], Dietrich Koelle [125], Herbert Grubel [87], Pat Frank [218; 219], Ira Glickstein [104; 105], Leonid B. Klyashtorin [159, figure 5; 220], Alexey A. Lyubushin [159, figure 5; 220], Yanjun Mao [192, figure 2; 193], Jiqing Tan [192, figure 2; 193], Bomin Chen [192, figure 2; 193], Huiyi Fan [192, figure 2; 193], Cliff Ollier [131], Scott Armstrong [114 - 119], Richard Lindzen [41, page 421; 86, page 7; 136], Ole Humlum [189, section 4] (who runs the contrarian blog Climate4You [190]), Jan-Erik Solheim [189, section 4], Kjell Stordahl [189, section 4], Nicola Scafetta [90, figure 12; 91, figure 16; 92, figure 6; 111, figure 5; 154, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82], Craig Loehle [154, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82; 158, figure 6], Syun-Ichi Akasofu [89, figure 5] (some of Akasofu's own defenders admit he under-estimated warming [256, citing 257 - 259, for 260; similar point in: 261 - 263]), Norman J. Page [201, figure 12 on page 14; 211], Qing-Bin Lu [140, figure 12 on page 7; 141; addressed in: 142 - 146], Matt Ridley [48], Ian Plimer [94; 102; 103], Thayer Watkins [205 - 207], Alan Rudge [102; 103], Anastasios Tsonis [42, page 4; 43; 129; 130; 162, paragraphs 14 and 15; 241; 242], Joseph D'Aleo [197, figure 24 on page 456; 198 - 200], and Joe Bastardi [98; 99] (Bastardi claims a decade of cooling for 2011 - 2021 [98; 99], and thus his claim is not yet falsified, though post-2011 trends so far suggest his claim will likely fail, as shown in section 2). I discuss some of these myth proponents' debunked temperature trend predictions in a separate multi-tweet Twitter thread [93], with a separate thread that also rebuts Curry's claims [134].

The following blogposts and Twitter threads provide numerous examples of temperature trend predictions, including false predictions of no global warming:

The myth's flaw: over the past two decades, the near-surface air above ocean and land warmed [8 - 24; 35 - 39; 45 - 47; 51 - 56; 58; 65, page S12; 81; 82; 85; 126, figure 1A; 135; 156; 157; 164; 215; 223; 224; 227; 229, figure 1; 237; 244, figures 7 and 8; 247; 249; 264], as has the lower atmosphere [3; 8; 25 - 28; 29, figure 3; 34; 63, figure 4; 65, page S17]. Other indirect measures [72; 216, from 6:10 to 7:36; 266], such as melting ice [72; 165 - 170; 180; 181; 184 - 187; 195; 208; 232; 240] sea level rise [65, page S85; 72; 171 - 181; 184; 191, figure 3 on page 8; 213; 238; 248; 267], and increases in temperature extremes [65, page S17; 209; 210; 213], indicated warming as well. This warming was reflected in the difference between the amount of energy Earth takes up vs. the amount of energy Earth release, as indicated by continued warming of deeper ocean regions [17; 22; 30; 31; 32, figure 3; 57; 62; 64; 65, page S76; 138; 152; 153; 160; 212; 217; 254; 255]. Ocean warming is the main metric of note, since ~90% of the excess energy goes into warming the oceans [17; 22; 32; 62; 72; 138; 160; 243; 254; 255].

One should expect future contrarians/denialists to continue abusing anomalously warm years in order to avoid acknowledging the magnitude of human-made global warming. Take the example of the ocean cycle known as ocean cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with its warm El Niño phase and cool La Niña phase [3; 246]. Future contrarians/denialism will likely continue doing at least one of the following:

  1. cherry-pick temperature trends that have an El Niño at (or soon after) their beginning, and/or have a La Niña at (or soon before) their end, in order to claim global warming paused, stopped, etc.
  2. if a temperature trend ends on an El Niño year, claim the warming trend is just due to El Niño or some other non-human-made factor
  3. focus on shorter-term temperature trend fluctuations, instead of longer-term, multi-decadal time-scales at which the effect of human-made greenhouse-gas-induced warming becomes more apparent

Note that contrarians will likely use these strategies to emphasis periods where ENSO and/or other forms of natural variability temporarily decelerate a global warming trend, while conveniently downplaying times at which this natural variability temporarily accelerates the trend [250 - 253].

I address strategy 1 in this blogpost, along with in section 3.4 of "John Christy, Climate Models, and Long-term Tropospheric Warming" and I also discuss strategy 2 in "Myth: El Niño Caused Post-1997 Global Warming".

2. Context and Analysis

The near-surface air above oceans and land warmed over the past two decades [8 - 24; 35 - 39; 45 - 47; 51 - 56; 58; 65, page S12; 81; 82; 85; 126, figure 1A; 135; 156; 157; 164; 215; 223; 224; 227; 229, figure 1; 237; 244, figures 7 and 8; 247; 249; 264]. Satellite and weather balloon (radiosonde) analyses also revealed warming of the troposphere, a lower region of the atmosphere where much of Earth's weather occurs [3; 8; 25 - 28; 29, figure 3; 34; 63, figure 4; 65, page S17]. Indirect measures [72; 216, from 6:10 to 7:36; 266], such as melting ice [72; 165 - 170; 180; 181; 184 - 187; 195; 208; 232; 240], sea level rise [65, page S85; 72; 171 - 181; 184; 191, figure 3 on page 8; 213; 238; 248; 267], and increases in temperature extremes [65, page S17; 209; 210], pointed to warming as well. These two decades of warming were reflected in Earth's energy balance, a measure of the amount of energy Earth takes up vs. the amount of energy Earth releases; continued warming of the deeper ocean reflects this energy imbalance [17; 22; 30; 31; 32, figure 3; 57; 62; 64; 65, page S76; 138; 152; 153; 160; 212; 217; 254; 255], since ~90% of the excess energy goes into warming the oceans [17; 22; 32; 62; 72; 138; 160; 243; 254; 255]. 

The figures below illustrate some of this recent warming:

Figure 1: Comparison of ocean temperature records from 1997 to 2015 for different sources, relative to a 1997-2001 baseline. The sources are buoys, the NOAA's (National Ocean and Atmospheric Association) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) record for both ERSSTv3b and the updated ERSSTv4, and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (CCI) [13, figure 1].

Figure 2: Comparison of ocean temperature records from 1997 to 2015 for different sources. NOAA's Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) record for ERSSTv3b and ERSSTv4 are compared to ocean heat measurements from Argo floats. Argo(H2008), Argo(APDRC), and Argo(RG2000) represent three different near-surface temperature data-sets derived from the Argo data. ERSSTv4 data is presented relative to a 1997-2001 baseline, while the other data sources are aligned to the 2005-2007 baseline for ERSSTv4 [13, figure S2]. 

Figure 3: Global, annual, mean surface temperature relative to mean temperature during pre-industrial era (1720 - 1800), or relative to mean temperature from 1986 - 2005 in the case of ERA-Interim, as shown in multiple temperature analyses. Pre-2016 data came from a previous scientific publication [9, figure 5], with later data added in a subsequent analysis [33]. This post-1997 warming trend continues through 2018, as shown using an online tool [49] summarized in a published paper [50]. This is illustrated for HadCRUT4 [51], NOAA GlobalTemp [51], GISTEMP [52], BEST [52], JMA [53], ERA-Interim [53], JRA-55 [54], and MERRA-2 [54], with MERRA-2 having an anomalously low post-1997 warming trend. HadCRUT4 and NOAA GlobalTemp under-estimate post-1997 warming due to their poorer coverage of the globe [8, section 4; 11; 18, figure 1; 46; 56; 58 - 61; 73 - 75; 135; 137, figure 1, sections 4.2.2 and 4.2.3; 214; 231], though more recent work shows improved coverage in the NOAA analysis [249; 264].

Figure 4: Global, annual, mean surface temperature relative to mean temperature from 1961 - 1990 [55, figure 1b]. I discuss the temperature trend (especially from the 1940s to the 1970s) in the context of a near-linear carbon-dioxide-induced warming trend, in sections 2.5 and 2.10 of "Myth: Attributing Warming to CO2 Involves the Fallaciously Inferring Causation from a Mere Correlation".
Other sources [65, page S12; 79; 126, figure 1A; 151, figure 1; 229, figure 1] offer a similar depiction, but with the addition of four more analyses, including an analysis from the Japanese Meteorological Association (JMA) [65, page S12; 79]. The JMA provides a post-1890 land+ocean analysis [65, page S12; 77, made using 49, as per 50; 80 - 83] with less global coverage [81, section 7.4; 83, section 3], while the China Meteorological Agency (CMA) also provides a post-1900 global land analysis [21; 84; 88; 182], as do others [236; 245], including for the post-1983 period [236; 237; 245]. The CMA recently provided a post-1900 global land+ocean analysis well [264]. Other ocean temperatures analyses exist, confirming recent warming as well [244]. The above figure includes neither the CMA analysis nor the JMA analysis, but both analyses show a similar pattern of 1900s - 1940s warming, temperature stagnation or slight cooling from the 1940s - 1960s, and post-1960s warming [21, figure 1a; 77, made using 49, as per 50; 79 - 81; 264].
This figure may overestimate 1940s - 1970s cooling due to uncertainties tied to changes in temperature monitoring practices during World War II [45; 224 - 226], as I discuss in "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming.

Figure 5: Trend in global, monthly, mean surface temperature from 1979 to 2016 relative to baseline of 1981 - 2010, as shown in multiple temperature analyses. The solid green trend-line is represents the trend for 1998 - 2012, while the dotted black trend-line represents the trend for the full period from 1979 - 2016 [8, figure 3].

Figure 6: Version 3.3 and version 4.0 of the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) global lower tropospheric temperature analysis, along with version 5.6 and version 6.0 of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) global lower tropospheric temperature analysis. RSS version 4.0 is an update of RSS version 3.3, while UAH version 6.0 is an update of UAH version 5.6. The lower lines (black, gray, red, and pink) indicate temperature relative to a baseline of 1979 - 1981. The upper lines (green and purple) display the difference between the relative temperature values. Quantified trends are from 1979 - 2016 [27].

Figure 7: Global lower tropospheric temperature trend up to 2017, as estimated by various re-analyses that include data from diverse sources, radiosonde-based (weather-balloon-based) analyses, and satellite-based analyses. The colored lines indicate temperature relative to a baseline of 1981 - 2010 [65, page S17]. The satellite-based analyses likely under-estimate lower tropospheric warming [161, figure 10] over the past two decades, as admitted by the RSS satellite-based team [27, page 7715; 110]. I discuss this further in section 2.2 of
"Myth: Evidence Supports Curry's Claims Regarding Satellite-based Analyses and the Hot Spot".

Figure 8: (A, Top panel) Global relative mid- to upper tropospheric temperature trend from 1979 - 2017, estimated as an average of the UAH, NOAA/STAR, and RSS satellite-based analyses.
(B, Bottom panel) 20-year mid- to upper tropospheric temperature trends for the satellite-based analyses. The year on the x-axis denotes the endpoint for the 20-year trend, while the y-axis represents the magnitude of the warming trend. Solid lines indicate the newest versions of each satellite-based analysis, while the dotted lines represent older versions [25].

Figure 9: 1993 - 2017 relative ocean heat content (OHC) from an ocean depth of 0 meters to 700 meters, as estimated using different analyses. Estimates are in ZJ, where 1 ZJ = 10^21 joules of energy. The estimates are first offset (vertically on the plot) relative to their individual 2005 - 2017 mean, and then offset relative to their collective 1993 mean. The year 1995 is represented by the first hash mark on the x-axis, with hash marks for at each subsequent 5-year interval. Errors bars represent standard error of the mean [65, page S76].

Figure 10: 1955 - 2015, or 1957 - 2014, relative ocean heat content, as estimated using different analyses. The measured ocean depth is from 0 meters to 700 meters, or from 700 meters to 2000 meters. The two NCEI lines [22, figure 4B] come from the same source as the NCEI analyses in figure 9 [65, page S76], while the two remaining lines come from IAP/CAS in figure 9 [65, page S76]. The figure 10 IAP/CAS estimate is relative to a 1997 - 2005 base period, while NCEI is adjusted relative to IAP/CAS' 2005 - 2014 values. IAP/CAS shading represents +/- 2-sigma uncertainty, while the dashed lines for NCEI reflect standard error. NCEI results cover 1957 - 2014, while IAP/CAS results cover 1955 - 2015 [22, figure 4B].

Figure 11: Relative ocean heat content, as estimated using different analyses. The analyses in question are listed on the left of panel B, with their corresponding colors [160, figures 1A, 1B, and 1C]; other analyses not shown here also show increased ocean heat content [64; 65, page S76] and correspond to the analyses in figures 9 and 10. The GF analysis originated in the paper from which this figure was taken, while the other listed analyses come from previously published research. The analyses cover the latitudes 80°N to 80°S, except for Domingues, which covers 65°N to 65°S. Estimates are in ZJ or ZJ/yr (ZJ per year), where 1 ZJ = 10^21 joules of energy. Estimates are also relative to a 2006 - 2015 baseline, with shading representing the uncertainty for each estimate.
(Top inset for each panel) Linear trend in ocean heat content, with error bars, over the periods noted. (Bottom inset for each panel) Relative ocean heat content (A) to a depth of 0 meters to 700 meters, (B) 0 meters to 2000 meters, and (C) below 2000 meters [160, figures 1A, 1B, and 1C].

As a 2017 paper and 2018 paper noted, respectively:

"Rather, the data are fully consistent with a steady global warming trend since the 1970s, superimposed with random, stationary, short-term variability. All recent variations in short-term trends are well within what was to be expected, based on the observed warming trend and the observed variability from the 1970s up to the year 2000.
Our purpose has been to determine what can and cannot be said about trends and their changes, based on the temperature data records only. We find that the public discussion of time intervals within the range 1998–2014 as somehow unusual or unexpected, as indicated by terms like 'hiatus', 'pause' and 'slowdown', has no support in rigorous study of the temperature data [emphasis added] [10]."

"The importance of differing definitions of a “hiatus” was discussed in Medhaug et al. [...] where contradictory conclusions can arise in the literature based on the definition. Consequently, elucidating the various different definitions of “pause” or “hiatus” is important.
Among the common definitions of pause/hiatus are: (1) a statistically significant change in the rate of global warming, as measured by changes to the heat balance of the planet; (2) a statistically significant change in the surface temperature record; (3) a non-statistically significant change in the rate of GMST [global mean surface temperature] change; and (4) Divergence between GMST predictions (from climate modes) and actual GMST measurements. Unfortunately, these definitions are often conflated and their separate identities must be maintained.
So, has there been a pause in global warming? The answer would be mistakenly “yes” only if one defines the “global warming” only by GMST changes (definition 3 above) [emphasis added] [138]."

Other studies yielded similar results [8, section 4; 11; 12; 18; 20; 58; 61; 66 - 72; 135; 156; 157; 163, pages 145 and 150; 215; 247]. As shown in figures 4 [55, figure 1b], 7 [65, page S17], 10 [22, figure 4B], 11 [160, figures 1A and 1B], and other sources [29; 76; 77, made using 49, as per 50; 126, figure 1A; 138, figures 1 and 2; 215, table 1; 228; 229, figure 1; 264, figure 8; 265], Earth is in the midst of a global warming trend over 50 years long, extending back to around 1965 and continuing past 1998 to the present

I discuss longer-term, industrial-era warming trends in sections 2.7 and 2.10 of "Myth: Attributing Warming to CO2 Involves the Fallaciously Inferring Causation from a Mere Correlation"The post-1997 warming cannot be accounted for in terms of an ocean cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, as I discuss in "Myth: El Niño Caused Most Post-1997 Warming". El Niño, however, does cause a more pronounced warming spike in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016; this spike is greater in the troposphere than at Earth's surface (compare figure 4 to figures 6 and 8) due largely to a short-term "tropospheric hot spot" that I discuss in "Myth: The Tropospheric Hot Spot is a Fingerprint of CO2-induced WarmingContrarians often cherry-pick the 1997/1998 warm El Niño as their start-point for warming trends, thereby minimizing recent warming as much as they can; the contrarians' cherry-picking comes with the flaws I discuss in section 3.4 of "Christopher Monckton and Projecting Future Global Warming, Part 1", and section 3.4 of "John Christy, Climate Models, and Long-term Tropospheric Warming".

3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis

4. References

  1. "Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model"
  2. "Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model"
  3. "Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data"
  4. "Data or dogma? Promoting open inquiry in the debate over the magnitude of human impact on Earth’s climate. Archived webcast of hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, 8 December 2015"
  5. "A response to the “Data or Dogma?” hearing"
  7. "Lukewarming: The new climate science that changes everything"
  8. "A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets"
  9. "Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period"
  10. "Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls"
  11. "Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends"
  12. Hansen et al.: "Global temperature in 2015"
  13. "Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records"
  14. "Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006"
  15. "Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus"
  16. "Assessing the impact of satellite-based observations in sea surface temperature trends"
  17. "A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change"
  18. "Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus"
  19. "Land surface temperature over global deserts: Means, variability, and trends"
  20. "On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming"
  21. "Global land-surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset"
  22. "Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015"
  23. "Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades"
  24. "In situ–based reanalysis of the global ocean temperature and salinity with ISAS: Variability of the heat content and steric height"
  25. "Tropospheric warming over the past two decades"
  26. "Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment"
  27. "A satellite-derived lower tropospheric atmospheric temperature dataset using an optimized adjustment for diurnal effects"
  28. "Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2)"
  29. "Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends"
  30. "Insights into Earth’s energy imbalance from multiple sources"
  31. Stephens and L'Ecuyer: "The Earth's energy balance"; doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.06.024
  32. "Reconciling estimates of ocean heating and Earth’s radiation budget"
  33. "Guest post: The challenge of defining the ‘pre-industrial’ era"
  34. "Troposphere-stratosphere temperature trends derived from satellite data compared with ensemble simulations from WACCM"
  41. "Straight talk about climate change"
  42. ("The little boy: El Niño and natural climate change")
  43. []
  44. "NOAA/NCDC’s new ‘pause-buster’ paper: a laughable attempt to create warming by adjusting past data"
  45. "Estimating biases in sea surface temperature records using coastal weather stations"
  46. "Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. UPDATE COBE-SST2 based land-ocean dataset"
  47. "Assessing the impact of satellite‐based observations in sea surface temperature trends"
  49. Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool: Monthly/seasonal time series"
  50. "Web-Based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) for analysis and comparison of reanalyses and other datasets"
  55. "Recent United Kingdom and global temperature variations"
  56. "Arctic warming in ERA‐Interim and other analyses"
  57. "Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012"
  58. "Recently amplified Arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend"
  59. "An investigation into the impact of using various techniques to estimate arctic surface air temperature anomalies"
  60. "Response to Gleisner et al (2015): Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data" [A comment on: "Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low‐latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data"]
  61. "Statistical analysis of coverage error in simple global temperature estimators"
  62. "Constraining the global ocean heat content through assimilation of CERES‐derived TOA energy imbalance estimates"
  63. "Postmillennium changes in stratospheric temperature consistently resolved by GPS radio occultation and AMSU observations"
  64. "2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean"
  65. "State of the climate in 2017"
  66. "Debunking the climate hiatus"
  67. "Lack of evidence for a slowdown in global temperature"
  68. "Change points of global temperature"
  69. "The “pause” in global warming: turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science"
  70. "The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?"
  71. "Has there been a hiatus?"
  72. "An apparent hiatus in global warming?"
  73. "Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'"
  74. "Contributions of atmospheric circulation variability and data coverage bias to the warming hiatus"
  75. "Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus"
  76. "Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures"
  79. ( ; (
  81. "Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set"
  82. "Big jump of record warm global mean surface temperature in 2014–2016 related to unusually large oceanic heat releases"
  83. "Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations"
  84. "Overview of global monthly surface temperature data in the past century and preliminary integration"
  85. "The Global Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature dataset, version 4"
  87. "Do humans cause global warming? A skeptics view"
  88. "Global diurnal temperature range (DTR) changes since 1901"
  89. "On the present halting of global warming"
  90. "Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications"
  91. "Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs"
  92. "Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)"
  95. "The past and future of climate (A presentation to the Lavoisier Group’s 2007 Workshop)"
  96. (
  97. (
  101. ("Recent global cooling: Summary")
  104. (
  106. (;  "I've made my projection – global surface temperatures will remain mostly flat for at least another decade.")
  107. (; "A year earlier, Jan 2011, I made it pretty clear that I supported Tsonis’ argument regarding climate shifts and a flat temperature trend for the next few decades")
  108. (; "I understand that 15 years is too short, but the climate model apostles told us not to expect a pause longer than 10 years, then 15 years, then 17 years. Looks like this one might go another two decades.")
  110. AGU conference abstract: "Understanding and reconciling differences in surface and satellite-based lower troposphere temperatures"
  111. "Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models"
  112. ("This is why the latest Assessment Report is proving such a headache to the IPCC. It’s the first in its history to admit what its critics have said for years: global warming did “pause” unexpectedly in 1998 and shows no sign of resuming")
  120. (; "Attention in the public debate seems to be moving away from the 15-17 yr ‘pause’ to the cooling since 2002 (note: I am receiving inquiries about this from journalists).  This period since 2002 is scientifically interesting, since it coincides with the ‘climate shift’ circa 2001/2002 posited  by Tsonis and others.  This shift and the subsequent slight cooling trend provides a rationale for inferring a slight cooling trend over the next decade or so, rather than a flat trend from the 15 yr ‘pause’.")
  121. "Current long-term negative average annual energy balance of the earth leads to the new little ice age"
  122. (
  123. Youtube, 1000frolly's video: "Climate Change "Problem" Solved - its Natural; Prof Weiss" []
  124. "Harmonic analysis of worldwide temperature proxies for 2000 years" (discuss further at: [archive:])
  126. "Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century"
  128. "Predictions of global mean temperatures & IPCC projections"
  130. []
  131. "Global warming and climate change: science and politics"
  135. "A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence"
  136. (
  137. "The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations"
  138. "Decadal ocean heat redistribution since the late 1990s and its association with key climate modes"
  139. "Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or natural global warming (NGM)"
  140. "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"
  141. (
  142. ""Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"" (DOI: 10.1142/S0217979214820037)
  143. "Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"" (DOI: 10.1142/S0217979214820013)
  144. "A note on the 'Reply to 'Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change'' by Rolf Müller and Jens-Uwe Grooß' by Q.-B. Lu'"
  145. "Do cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reactions impact stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate change?"
  146. (
  147. []
  148. []
  149. []
  151. "How accurately do we know the temperature of the surface of the earth?"
  152. "How fast are the oceans warming?" [DOI: 10.1126/science.aav7619]
  153. "Accuracy of global upper ocean heat content estimation expected from present observational data sets"
  154. "Climate change attribution using empirical decomposition of climatic data"
  155. []
  156. "Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data"
  157. "Regional trend changes in recent surface warming"
  158. "Trend analysis of satellite global temperature data"
  159. "On the coherence between dynamics of the world fuel consumption and global temperature anomaly"
  160. "Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport"
  161. "An analysis of discontinuity in Chinese radiosonde temperatures using satellite observation as a reference"
  162. "Has the climate recently shifted?" [DOI: 10.1029/2008GL037022]
  163. "Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis"
  164. [ ; taken from:]
  167. "Global sea ice coverage from satellite data: Annual cycle and 35-yr trends"
  168. "Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing"
  169. "Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century"
  170. "A high-resolution record of Greenland mass balance"
  171. []
  172. "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era"
  173. "Global sea-level budget 1993–present" (DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018)
  174. "Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales"
  175. "New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach"
  176. "A consistent sea-level reconstruction and its budget on basin and global scales over 1958–2014"
  177. "The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014"
  178. "Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era"
  179. "Evaluation of the global mean sea level budget between 1993 and 2014"
  180. "Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet mass changes and effects on global sea level"
  181. "Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971–2017"
  182. "A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900"
  183. "Climate pattern recognition in the late-to-end Holocene (1600 AD to 2050 AD, part 8)"
  184. "The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era" ("Corrigendum: The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 063008)")
  185. "Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017"
  186. "Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017"
  187. "Comment on ‘Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses’ by H. J. Zwally and others"
  188. ("An alternative theory to anthropogenic carbon dioxide’s causing significant changes in the world’s climate";
  189. "The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24"
  191. "Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States"
  192. "The “ocean stabilization machine” may represent a primary factor underlying the effect of “global warming on climate change”"
  194. "Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle"
  196. []
  197. "Multidecadal tendencies in ENSO and global temperatures related to multidecadal oscillations"
  201. "The coming cooling: Usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers"
  202. ("The physical flaws of the global warming theory and deep ocean circulation changes as the primary climate driver")
  204. []
  205. []
  206. []
  207. []
  208. [; World Glacier Monitoring Service]
  209. "Global, regional, and megacity trends in the highest temperature of the year: Diagnostics and evidence for accelerating trends"
  210. "No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes"
  211. []
  212. "2018 continues record global ocean warming"
  213. "Observations of the rate and acceleration of global mean sea level change"
  214. "Recent global warming as confirmed by AIRS"
  215. "Change point analysis of global temperature records"
  216. Youtube: "Andrew Dessler on Satellite Temp Errors"
  217. "Earth's energy imbalance measured from space"
  219. []
  221. [; "The stadium wave hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for the hiatus in warming and helps explain why climate models did not predict this hiatus. Further, the new hypothesis suggests how long the hiatus might last. [...] Implications for the future: I. IPCC AR5 view. The hiatus will end soon, with the next El Nino. [...] Implications for the future: II.  View emphasizing natural internal variability. The ‘hiatus’ will continue at least another decade"]
  222. []
  224. "A limited role for unforced internal variability in 20th century warming"
  226. "The importance of unresolved biases in 20th century sea-surface temperature observations"
  227. "The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014–2016 global surface air temperatures"
  228. "A Bayesian approach to detecting change points in climatic records"
  229. "Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model"
  230. []
  231. "Geographical distribution of thermometers gives the appearance of lower historical global warming"
  232. "Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018"
  233. "Will a new Little Ice Age begin in the next few decades?"
  234. (; "My take on how the pause will play out is summarized in the stadium wave post: I expect that the natural variability will contribute to a continuation of the hiatus into the 2030’s, with solar and volcanoes being a wild card.")
  235. (; "I’ve made my projection – global surface temperatures will remain mostly flat for at least another decade.  However, I’m not willing to place much $$ on that bet, since I suspect that Mother Nature will manage to surprise us. (I will be particularly surprised if the rate of warming in the next decade is at the levels expected by the IPCC.)")
  236. "Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880"
  237. "A high-resolution 1983–2016 Tmax climate data record based on infrared temperatures and stations by the Climate Hazard Center"
  238. "Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s"
  239. []
  240. "Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016"
  241. []
  242. []
  243. "Ocean warming: From the surface to the deep in observations and models"
  244. "A new compilation of globally gridded night‐time marine air temperatures: The UAHNMATv1 dataset"
  245. "Reconstructed global monthly land air temperature dataset (1880–2017)"
  246. "Ranking the strongest ENSO events while incorporating SST uncertainty"
  247. "Trend analysis of climate time series: A review of methods"
  248. "Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean sea-level changes, trend and acceleration"
  249. "Uncertainty estimates for sea surface temperature and land surface air temperature in NOAAGlobalTemp version 5"
  250. []
  251. []
  252. []
  253. []
  254. "Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition" [Discussion: ( ; (]
  255. "Record-setting ocean warmth continued in 2019"
  256. Zharkova et al.: "Reply to the reviewer comments to paper 3 in SR", for: "Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale" []
  257. []
  258. []
  259. []
  260. "Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale"
  261. []
  262. []
  263. []
  264. "A new merge of global surface temperature datasets since the start of the 20th century"
  265. []
  266. []
  267. "Consolidating sea level acceleration estimates from satellite altimetry"

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