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Saturday, July 11, 2020

Endnotes for: "The Dangerous Myth that Sweden Achieved Herd Immunity"

This is a list of references for this Medium post:

There are also accompanying Twitter threads on herd immunity:
- India + herd immunity: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1387315729096220676 
- USA + herd immunity: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1357561386176503809
- Nic Lewis + herd immunity: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1349995780116013059 ,  
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1382545347898138632 


References were added since the time the Medium post was written, but the numbers listed below still match the corresponding bracketed citations in the post.


1)  
[with:  
   “Quantifying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak – The case of Sweden”
   Pre-print: “How did governmental interventions affect the spread of COVID-19 in European countries?” 
(with: https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid ; https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker ; from: “Variation in government responses to COVID-19”)
   Pre-print: “Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on population mobility under mild policies: Causal evidence from Sweden” 
   Pre-print: “The effectiveness of lockdowns: Learning from the Swedish experience”
 (update to: “Do lockdowns work? A counterfactual for Sweden”)
   Pre-print: “Social-distancing effectiveness tracking of the COVID-19 hotspot Stockholm”
   https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1258284485952466945
   https://elemental.medium.com/its-not-looking-good-in-sweden-right-now-624e7fe0a1ed
   https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/15/covid19-accidental-sweden-fall-could-be-catastrophic/
   “Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe” (pages 27 - 30 of Supplementary Information)  
   https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash
   https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/]
   “Four months into the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight”   
[with:
 
2)  
   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitney-looks-sweden-was-right-after-all

3)
   “Dynamics of population immunity due to the herd effect in the COVID-19 pandemic”  
   “Herd immunity: Understanding COVID-19”  
   “Transmission dynamics reveal the impracticality of COVID-19 herd immunity strategies” 
   “Lancet COVID-19 Commission Statement on the occasion of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly”
   “Four months into the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight”  
   “Herd immunity or suppression strategy to combat COVID-19”  
   “COVID-19: An open letter to the UK’s chief medical officers” 
   “Rapid responses to “COVID-19: Experts divide into two camps of action—shielding versus blanket policies”” 
   “Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: We need to act now”
[with: 
  https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1344051607130890242
  https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1316511195164299264
  https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1316506820949667841
  https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1316641301928976384 (https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1261645790142844933)
  https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1316628979500150786] 
   https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash
   https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/ 
   Update:  
[with: 
   Sources for endnote 42
   Pre-print: “The COVID-19 herd immunity threshold is not low: A re-analysis of European data from spring of 2020”  
   https://rapidreviewscovid19.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/bat0d0fq/release/2 (with: https://rapidreviewscovid19.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/civbefqo/release/2)
   Related studies:
   Pre-print: “The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2” 
{with:  
   https://medium.com/@silentn2040/i-suspect-many-people-will-begin-citing-this-article-possibly-to-claim-that-the-herd-immunity-b3177491899b 
   https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1283868410363777024 
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1284376466856255489} 
   Pre-print: “Susceptibility-adjusted herd immunity threshold model and potential R0 distribution fitting the observed Covid-19 data in Stockholm” {with: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1357939779225210882}] 

4)

5)

6)

7) 

8) 

9) 

10) 

11)  

12)
 
13)
 
14)  
   https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
   Stockholm, Sweden (with greater temporal resolution): https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/03/tracking-the-coronavirus-across-europe [http://archive.is/dBSgj]

15)

16)
{R > 1 for Sweden after April 30:
   “COVID-19 transmission trajectories–monitoring the pandemic in the worldwide context” 
(counter-example:
   R in the context of herd immunity:
   https://videocast.nih.gov/watch%3D38084, from 40:29 - 42:02
(with:   
   Pre-print: “High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children and adults in the Austrian ski resort Ischgl”
   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nlmcatalog/101769642
   https://www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html) 
   Herd immunity is determined by R0, not Rt; i.e. by R under baseline conditions (conditions very near the beginning of the virus' spread in a region, or conditions from a corresponding day last year before the pandemic began), not R with later additional behavior changes and public health interventions, such as more social distancing, preventing people from visiting those in care facilities / nursing homes, more mask-wearing, closing of universities and high schools, lockdowns, etc. So reduction in cases/day, hospitalizations/day, and/or COVID-19 deaths/day under conditions of Rt < 1 does not entail that the herd immunity threshold was reached, unless baseline conditions are in effect:
   page 6 of: “Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand” 
   “COVID-19 herd immunity: Where are we?”  
   “Herd immunity and implications for SARS-CoV-2 control” 
   “A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2” (with: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/sweden-coronavirus-covid-response/)
   Pre-print: “High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children and adults in the Austrian ski resort Ischgl” (with: https://videocast.nih.gov/watch%3D38084, from 40:29 - 42:02) 
   https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1380226765885423618 
   https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1239036949882482688 
   https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1310756838401597440
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1419675851394887683  
   (with:  
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1292334590225506304
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1353149506943070208
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1294497514129948672 
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1294500558691274753)  
   Pre-print: pages 1 and 8 of “The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions” 
   “Herd immunity: Understanding COVID-19” 
   “Herd immunity – estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries”  
[The paper notes that: "So another way of calculating Rt for a pathogen in a given population is by multiplying R0 by the proportion of that population that is non-immune (i.e. susceptible) to that pathogen.6 Hence, R0 will only equal Rt when there are no immune individuals in the population (i.e. when all are susceptible)." 
This is equivalent to the classical HIT calculation from R0 of "HIT = 1 - (1/ R0)". For example, with R0 of 4, to bring Rt to 1 at which point infections/day are not increasing, one needs to multiply R0 by 25%. A 25% susceptible percentage means 75% of people are immune. That matches the 75% for HIT one gets from plugging R0 of 4 into "HIT = 1 - (1/ R0)". So the paper's Rt is actually an R0 under baseline conditions with a non-zero number of immune people; it is not an Rt under additional non-baseline public health interventions and behavior changes.]
   “Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period” 
   Pre-print: “Estimating hidden asymptomatics, herd immunity threshold and lockdown effects using a COVID-19 specific model” 
   Pre-print: “Moving beyond a peak mentality: Plateaus, shoulders, oscillations and other 'anomalous' behavior-driven shapes in COVID-19 outbreaks” 
   Pre-print: “Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?”
   {for further context, see Medium text corresponding to: 
   - endnotes 34 and 35 
   - between endnotes 24 and 25 
   - endnote 41}  
   https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1311214957598392320
   Stockholm, Sweden (with greater temporal resolution):

17) 

18) 

19) 

20) 
   https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/
 
21) 
 
22)

23) 
   [with:  
 
24) 

25) 
   (As per endnote 16: herd immunity is determined by R0, not Rt; i.e. by R at baseline, not R with extra interventions and behavior changes. So reduction in cases/day, hospitalizations/day, and/or COVID-19 deaths/day under conditions of Rt < 1 does not entail that the herd immunity threshold was reached.)
 
26) 
[with: 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-stockholm/sweden-to-shut-bars-and-restaurants-that-ignore-coronavirus-restrictions-idUSKCN2262AX
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1258284485952466945 
https://twitter.com/MarkkuPeltonen/status/1265483041994166272
(with the following for regional peaks in Sweden:  
https://medium.com/newsworthy-se/a-fraction-of-european-regions-account-for-a-majority-of-covid-deaths-778e546765a9 ; https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/03/tracking-the-coronavirus-across-europe)]

27) 

28) 

29) 

30) 
   Pre-print: “Downward trend in the indices of death rate in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evaluating alternative hypotheses”
[with: 
(with:  
   “COVID-19 en Iquitos. Contagio, Síntomas y diagnóstico” [DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24521.98401]  
   “SARS-CoV-2 in rural Latin America. A population-based study in coastal Ecuador”  
[with:  
   “Late incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a highly-endemic remote rural village. A prospective population-based cohort study”
   “SARS-CoV-2-related mortality in a rural Latin American population”]
[with:  
   “Bayesian network analysis of COVID-19 data reveals higher infection prevalence rates and lower fatality rates than widely reported”
[counter-examples:  
   “Community-level SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence survey in urban slum dwellers of Buenos Aires City, Argentina: A participatory research” 
   (with:
   (with: 
   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nlmcatalog/101769642
   https://videocast.nih.gov/watch%3D38084  
   https://www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html)
   Pre-print: “Population-based seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is more than halfway through the herd immunity threshold in the State of Maranhao, Brazil”
   (with: 
   http://www.saude.ma.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Relat%C3%B3rio-do-Inqu%C3%A9rito-Sorol%C3%B3gico-no-Maranh%C3%A3o.pdf 
   https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1308462771084771329
   “COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon”
   https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1302860086881132544
   https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1302857293508218880
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1299580694432227329
   https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1299519949988265984 
   https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1299523765055959040)
   Pre-print: “Findings from serological surveys (in August 2020) to assess the exposure of adult population to SARS Cov-2 infection in three cities of Odisha, India”
 (with: https://ommcomnews.com/odisha-news/1-3rd-of-berhampurs-population-have-developed-antibodies-against-covid-19-rmrc-director), Odisha, India 
   (for risk of under-estimated deaths in India:  
   “What counts as a COVID-19 death?”
   Pre-print: “Reconciling epidemiological models with misclassified case-counts for SARS-CoV-2 with seroprevalence surveys: A case study in Delhi, India”  
   Pre-print: “Estimating missing deaths in Delhi’s COVID-19 data”  
   https://science.thewire.in/health/india-mccd-comorbidities-covid-19-deaths-undercounting/ 
   https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/covid-19-mumbai-all-cause-mortality-data-ifr-bmc-seroprevalence-survey/
   https://science.thewire.in/health/maharashtra-missing-covid-19-fatalities-reconciliation/)  
   Pre-print: “Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in slums and non-slums of Mumbai, India, during June 29-July 19, 2020”
 (see parenthetical comments above for under-estimated deaths in India; with: https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/mumbai-sero-survey-results-coronavirus-bmc-6527865/ and https://twitter.com/swapneilparikh/status/1288108188735164416)  
   http://www.iiserpune.ac.in/userfiles/files/Pune_Serosurvey_Technical_report-16_08_2020.pdf 
   (see parenthetical comments above for under-estimated deaths in India; with: 
   http://www.iiserpune.ac.in/news/epidemiological-and-serological-surveillance-of 
   https://science.thewire.in/health/pune-covid-19-epidemic-seroprevalence-survey-igg-antibodies-infection-fatality-rate/ 
   https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pune-survey-suggests-51-5-have-antibodies/story-9MlFUJfmiWnNOrzujCwKIP.html)
   Pre-print: “Remarkable variability in SARS-CoV-2 antibodies across Brazilian regions: nationwide serological household survey in 27 states”, figure 3, supplementary table 2, and supplementary table 3  
(with: 
   “Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID ‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases”
   Pre-print: “Ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran: Challenges and signs of concern with under-reporting of prevalence and deaths”

31) 

32) 

33) 

34) 
   (As per endnote 16: herd immunity is determined by R0, not Rt; i.e. by R at baseline, not R with extra interventions and behavior changes. So reduction in cases/day, hospitalizations/day, and/or COVID-19 deaths/day under conditions of Rt < 1 does not entail that the herd immunity threshold was reached.)
 
35) 

36) 
[with:

37) 
   “High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in elderly care employees in Sweden” [with: Pre-print: “Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM antibodies among Danish and Swedish Falck emergency and non-emergency healthcare workers”]
   “Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among VA healthcare system employees suggests higher risk of infection when exposed to SARS-CoV-2 outside of the work environment”
   “Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and transmission in a skilled nursing facility”  
   “Variation in SARS‐CoV‐2 prevalence in US skilled nursing facilities”
[with:
   https://today.oregonstate.edu/news/trace-results-suggest-17-hermiston-community-infected-sars-cov-2 
   https://www.eastoregonian.com/coronavirus/three-more-covid-19-deaths-announced-in-umatilla-county/article_02ee7a74-d112-11ea-9f62-93b98c9ff878.html] 
   “Factors associated with nursing home infections and fatalities in New York State during the COVID-19 global health crisis” 
   https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/impactofcoronavirusincarehomesinenglandvivaldi/latest#covid-19-surveillance-study-in-care-homes-vivaldi [figure 1 and section on “Factors affecting the risk of infection in care homes”]
   “Epidemiology of COVID-19 in a long-term care facility in King County, Washington” 
 
38) 

39) 
   See endnote 41 other references on non-lockdown interventions and lockdowns in comparison to Sweden 

40) 

41) 
   See endnote 39 for other references on lockdowns not compared to Sweden 
   (As per endnote 16: herd immunity is determined by R0, not Rt; i.e. by R at baseline, not R with extra interventions and behavior changes. So reduction in cases/day, hospitalizations/day, and/or COVID-19 deaths/day under conditions of Rt < 1 does not entail that the herd immunity threshold was reached.)
[with:
   “Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking” 
   “Quantifying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak – The case of Sweden”
   Pre-print: “The effectiveness of lockdowns: Learning from the Swedish experience” (update to: “Do lockdowns work? A counterfactual for Sweden”)
   https://twitter.com/MarkkuPeltonen/status/1265483041994166272
   “Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe” (pages 27 - 30 of Supplementary Information)] 
   https://videocast.nih.gov/watch%3D38084, from 40:29 - 42:02
[with:  
   Pre-print: “High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children and adults in the Austrian ski resort Ischgl”
   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nlmcatalog/101769642
   https://www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html]
   “SARS‐CoV‐2 outbreak and lockdown in a Northern Italy hospital. Comparison with Scandinavian no‐lockdown country” 
   “Nudges against pandemics: Sweden's COVID-19 containment strategy in perspective” 
   “Physical distancing interventions and incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries”
[with:
 
42) 
   Pre-print: “The COVID-19 herd immunity threshold is not low: A re-analysis of European data from spring of 2020” 
   [with: 
   https://twitter.com/FoxandtheFlu/status/1334546126880395264 
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334638696415551494
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1335720744161046533]
   Pre-print: “Population-based seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is more than halfway through the herd immunity threshold in the State of Maranhao, Brazil” 
[with:   
   http://www.saude.ma.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Relat%C3%B3rio-do-Inqu%C3%A9rito-Sorol%C3%B3gico-no-Maranh%C3%A3o.pdf
   “Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic” (update to the Pre-print: “COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon”)  
(with:  
   Pre-print: “Inferred resolution through herd immunity of first COVID-19 wave in Manaus, Brazilian Amazon”
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1346514417194827776 
   “Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence”
   https://twitter.com/B_Nelson_Manaus/status/1349705393249923072
   https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1308462771084771329 
   “Herd immunity by infection is not an option” 
   https://twitter.com/B_Nelson_Manaus/status/1353166831650033665 
   https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-55757085)]

43) 

44) 

45) 

46) 
   “Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?” [with: https://web.archive.org/web/20200625011550/https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198238/declines-covid-19-cases-herd-immunity-says/]
   https://videocast.nih.gov/watch%3D38084, from 40:29 - 42:02
[with:   
   Pre-print: “High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children and adults in the Austrian ski resort Ischgl”
   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nlmcatalog/101769642
   https://www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html]
   Pre-print: “Estimating the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections: systematic review” 
   https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/etudes-et-enquetes/scope-une-etude-de-seroprevalence-aupres-d-une-population-vulnerable-de-perpignan [with: https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/presse/2020/covid-19-premiers-resultats-d-une-etude-de-seroprevalence-aupres-d-une-population-vulnerable-de-perpignan]
(with:
   https://threader.app/thread/1284453296854441989
   https://twitter.com/GamarnikLab/status/1284566709458948096 
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1287333993998954496)
   Pre-print: “Population-based seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is more than halfway through the herd immunity threshold in the State of Maranhao, Brazil”
   (with:  
   http://www.saude.ma.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Relat%C3%B3rio-do-Inqu%C3%A9rito-Sorol%C3%B3gico-no-Maranh%C3%A3o.pdf 
   https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1308462771084771329
   “COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon”
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1299580694432227329
   https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1299519949988265984 
   https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1299523765055959040)
   “SARS-CoV-2 in rural Latin America. A population-based study in coastal Ecuador”  
[with:  
   “Late incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a highly-endemic remote rural village. A prospective population-based cohort study”
   “SARS-CoV-2-related mortality in a rural Latin American population”]
   Pre-print: “High community SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence in a ski resort community, Blaine County, Idaho, US. Preliminary results” 
[with: 
   Pre-print: “Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the city of Iquitos, Loreto, Peru”
(with: 
   “COVID-19 en Iquitos. Contagio, Síntomas y diagnóstico” [DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24521.98401]  
(with: 
   https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries)
   India: 
   Mumbai: 
 
47)
   “The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in Stockholm”

48) 
[with: 
   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/sweden-says-latest-covid-immunity-not-enough-to-protect-citizens

49) 

50) 
   https://medium.com/@jrfinkel/covid-putting-the-puzzle-together-3e3a5f333d84
   https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/
   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitney-looks-sweden-was-right-after-all
 
51) 
   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitney-looks-sweden-was-right-after-all

52) 
   [with: 
   https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/concerns-about-waning-covid-19-immunity-are-likely-overblown/    
   Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz's “Re: Are we underestimating seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2?” [with: https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1301756592212176896] 
   “Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2” 
   Pre-print: “Characterizing the Qatar advanced-phase SARS-CoV-2 epidemic”
   “High prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 infection in hemodialysis patients detected using serologic screening” 
   “Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study” 
   “Orthogonal SARS-CoV-2 serological assays enable surveillance of low prevalence communities and reveal durable humoral immunity” 
   Pre-print: “SARS-CoV-2 infection induces sustained humoral immune responses in convalescent patients following symptomatic COVID-19”
   Pre-print: “Dynamics and significance of the antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection”
   Pre-print: “Serum-IgG responses to SARS-CoV-2 after mild and severe COVID-19 infection and analysis of IgG non-responders”  
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1312645313581273088 
   https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1294537912948854784 
   Pre-print: “Prior infection by seasonal coronaviruses does not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in children”  
   [with: 
   Pre-print: “Cross-reactive antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal common cold coronaviruses”]
   Pre-print: “Antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans: A systematic review”  
   Pre-print: “Cellular immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans: A systematic review”
   “Pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2: the knowns and unknowns” [with: https://twitter.com/KevinWNg/status/1286665404241281024] 
   “Robust T cell response towards spike, membrane, and nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 proteins is not associated with recovery in critical COVID-19 patients” [with: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1293374331519733762]
   “Immunologic features in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Functional exhaustion of T cells and cytokine storm” 
   “Extrafollicular B cell responses correlate with neutralizing antibodies and morbidity in COVID-19” [with: “COVID-19 and autoimmunity”] 
   Pre-print: “Pre-existing T cell memory as a risk factor for severe 1 COVID-19 in the elderly” 
   [with:  
   https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1306302609800572928  
   “Antigen-specific adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in acute COVID-19 and associations with age and disease severity”]
   Pre-print: “Systematic examination of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 versus influenza virus reveals distinct inflammatory profile”
   [with: 
 
53)
   [with:  
   https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1294640133250019328 
 
54) 
   http://archive.is/HqncI#selection-15387.151-15455.150
   “A case report of possible novel coronavirus 2019 reinfection” 
   “COVID-19 re-infection by a phylogenetically distinct SARS-coronavirus-2 strain confirmed by whole genome sequencing”  
   “The first case of documented COVID-19 reinfection in Israel” 
   “Genomic evidence for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2: A case study”
   “Recurrence of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection with a more severe case after mild COVID‐19, reversion of RT‐qPCR for positive and late antibody response: Case report” 
   “Asymptomatic reinfection in two healthcare workers from India with genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2” 
   “COVID-19 re-infection in an healthcare worker”
   Pre-print: “Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 and failure of humoral immunity: A case report”
   https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/08/24/herbesmetting-coronavirus-voor-het-eerst/ 
   https://www.businessinsider.com/four-coronavirus-reinfection-cases-reported-in-the-netherlands-2020-8
   Pre-print: “Evidence for immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from epidemiological data series”
[with:
   “Seasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting” (update to Pre-print: “Human coronavirus reinfection dynamics: lessons for SARS‐CoV‐2”; with Pre-print: “Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020”)
   https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767208 (“Anthony Fauci, MD, on COVID-19 Vaccines, Schools, and Larry Kramer”)]
   “Robust T cell response towards spike, membrane, and nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 proteins is not associated with recovery in critical COVID-19 patients” [with: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1293374331519733762]
   “Pathogenic T-cells and inflammatory monocytes incite inflammatory storms in severe COVID-19 patients”  
   “Immunologic features in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Functional exhaustion of T cells and cytokine storm”  
   “Extrafollicular B cell responses correlate with neutralizing antibodies and morbidity in COVID-19” [with: “COVID-19 and autoimmunity”]
   “A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: kinetics, correlates of protection, and association with severity”  
   Pre-print: “Pre-existing T cell memory as a risk factor for severe 1 COVID-19 in the elderly” 
   [with:  
   https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1306302609800572928  
   “Antigen-specific adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in acute COVID-19 and associations with age and disease severity”]
   Pre-print: “Systematic examination of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 versus influenza virus reveals distinct inflammatory profile”
   Pre-print: “Seroprevalence and correlates of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies: Results from a population-based study in Bonn, Germany”
   Pre-print: “Severe COVID-19 infection is associated with increased antibody-mediated platelet apoptosis”
   “SARS-CoV-2 genomic variations associated with mortality rate of COVID-19”
 
55)
   https://twitter.com/bansallab/status/1259970552074207238 (with: “Spatial heterogeneity in simple deterministic SIR models assessed ecologically”, section 3.2)
 
56) 

57) 

58) 

59) 

60) 
   Pre-print: “Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: Meta-analysis & public policy implications” [figure 5 includes studies for Utah-HERO, Indiana, New York state, Hungary, Spain, Italy, England, Iceland, etc. ; with: 
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1291682682305470466]
   “Humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland” [IFR: 0.3% (range: 0.2% - 0.6%)] 
   “Bayesian network analysis of COVID-19 data reveals higher infection prevalence rates and lower fatality rates than widely reported” [IFR range: 0.2% - 1.0%; mode for IFR: 0.3% - 0.5%]   
   https://louisville.edu/medicine/news/phase-ii-results-of-co-immunity-project-show-higher-than-expected-rates-of-exposure-to-novel-coronavirus-in-jefferson-county
   https://www.washoecounty.us/outreach/2020/07/2020-07-08-jic-update-0708.php 
   https://abc7.com/riverside-county-covid-update-coronavirus-ie-covid-19/6340600/ [with: https://rivcoph.org/Portals/0/Documents/CoronaVirus/July/News/7.27.20%20antibody%20testing%20results.pdf?ver=2020-07-27-144931-703&timestamp=1595886602504]
   [with: 
   {Seasonal influenza's IFR (infection fatality rate) of <0.1%, in the range of ~0.02% - ~0.05%:  
   Pre-print: “Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: Meta-analysis & public policy implications”
   ~0.14% symptomatic illness CFR (cases fatality rate) for 2017 - 2018: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm , https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
   [with: 
   ~65% - ~85% of infections not being symptomatic illness, as per the “Definition of asymptomatic fraction” section of the paper: “The fraction of influenza virus infections that are asymptomatic: A systematic review and meta-analysis”; so influenza IFR of ~0.02% - ~0.05%  
   ~63% (~31% - ~97%) of infections not being symptomatic illness, as defined as lacking any symptoms or being a subclinical case: “Heterogeneous and dynamic prevalence of asymptomatic influenza virus infections”; so influenza IFR of ~0.05% (0.004% - 0.1%) 
   IFR will be less than CFR; seasonal flu CFR of ~0.1% or less: 
   Comparison to 1957 Asian influenza pandemic: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1304533470773993472
   Comparison to 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic:  https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1304533899935129600}  

61) 
 
62) 
   “Rapid responses to “COVID-19: Experts divide into two camps of action—shielding versus blanket policies”” 

63) 
   https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1283753633247563777 [with: http://archive.is/1iJyQ#selection-6999.0-7265.21 ; http://archive.is/c5u7N#selection-3239.0-3595.21 ; http://archive.is/b2P66 (from co-author of: “Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold”)] 
   https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/ 
 
64)
   Our World in Data, map of mortality rates, for reported COVID-19 deaths  

65) 
   table 1.1 of: “Chapter 1. How resilient have European health systems been to the COVID-19 crisis?” (for excess mortality and for reported COVID-19 deaths)
   For excess mortality:  
   https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps (with: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1326180403326152709)
   https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/excess-mortality-in-sweden-is-followed-by-mortality-deficit/, “Preliminary statistics on deaths (Excel file)” (with: https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1329581627840708608)
   extended data table 1 from: “Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries”  
   “COVID-19 and excess all-cause mortality in the US and 18 comparison countries”
   “Excess mortality: the gold standard in measuring the impact of COVID-19 worldwide?”
   Pre-print: “Excess mortality from COVID-19. Weekly excess death rates by age and by sex for Sweden” (with: “How comparable is COVID-19 mortality across countries?”) 
   https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries 
   https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html 
   https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 
   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046
 
66) 
 
67) 

68)
 
69) 
   “Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe” (page 29 of Supplementary Information)  
   https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/
   Pre-print: “How did governmental interventions affect the spread of COVID-19 in European countries?” 
(with: https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid ; https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker ; from: “Variation in government responses to COVID-19”)
 
70) 

71) 
   Pre-print: “How did governmental interventions affect the spread of COVID-19 in European countries?” 
(with: https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid ; https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker ; from: “Variation in government responses to COVID-19”)
 
72) 
   https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid  [with: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker ; from: “Variation in government responses to COVID-19”]

73) 

74) 
   See citations in endnote 41    
   Pre-print: “The effectiveness of lockdowns: Learning from the Swedish experience”
 (update to: “Do lockdowns work? A counterfactual for Sweden”)
 
75) 
   https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/ 

76) 
See the infection fatality rate (IFR) studies listed in endnote 60    
 
77) 

78) 
[with:
   https://today.oregonstate.edu/news/trace-results-suggest-17-hermiston-community-infected-sars-cov-2 
   https://www.eastoregonian.com/coronavirus/three-more-covid-19-deaths-announced-in-umatilla-county/article_02ee7a74-d112-11ea-9f62-93b98c9ff878.html] 
   “Factors associated with nursing home infections and fatalities in New York State during the COVID-19 global health crisis”
   “High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in elderly care employees in Sweden” [with: Pre-print: “Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM antibodies among Danish and Swedish Falck emergency and non-emergency healthcare workers”]
   “Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and transmission in a skilled nursing facility”
  
79) 
   https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy [“No sign of a health-economy trade-off, quite the opposite”] 
   Pre-print: “Job search during the COVID-19 crisis”   

80) 

81) 
   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitney-looks-sweden-was-right-after-all

82) 
https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/ 
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitney-looks-sweden-was-right-after-all
   https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/15/covid19-accidental-sweden-fall-could-be-catastrophic/

83) 

84) 

85) 

86) 

87) 

88) 


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