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Monday, April 30, 2018

+Myth: Attributing Warming to CO2 Involves the Fallaciously Inferring Causation from a Mere Correlation


The outline for this post is as follows:
  1. The Myth and Its Flaw
  2. Context and Analysis (divided into multiple sections)
  3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis
  4. References

This is the "+References" version of this post, which means that this post contains my full list of references and citations. If you would like an abbreviated and easier to read version, then please go to the "main version" of this post.

References are cited as follows: "[#]", with "#" corresponding to the reference number given in the References section at the end of this post.




1.  The Myth and Its Flaw



Changing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels correlate with long-term temperature changes on Earth [5; 11 - 21; 447; 1055; 1069, figure 1, with temperature change in panel d updated in 1057; 1589; 1604]. There is also an evidence-based [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 202, chapter 3; 394; 684; 887; 1078; 1101; 1108; 1185; 1357; 1658; 1659; 1741; 1754; 1787; 1831; 1836, pages 22 - 24; 1838, page 57] scientific consensus [28; 31, table 1; 32, figure 2 v007 on page 11; 33, page 49; 499, page 28 in chapter 2; 500] that humans caused most of the recent global warming, predominately via increasing levels of greenhouse gases such as CO2 (just as there is an evidence-based scientific consensus on other topics [22 - 30; 309 - 312; 314; 331, page 3.8; 399; 943 - 946; 947, table 3 on page 4594; 1363; 1435]). Therefore scientists attribute most of the recent warming to man-made release of CO2. Some critics object to this causal attribution, since the critics claim the attribution involves incorrectly inferring causation from correlation [75 - 83; 85 - 87; 89 - 93; 95; 96]. The critics' claim is the myth this blogpost focuses on.

Proponents of this myth include William Happer [89, page 26; 91], Roy Spencer [76; 89, page 26], S. Fred Singer [85, page 3], Nicola Scafetta [89, page 26], Craig Idso [89, page 26; 96]Robert Carter [90, page 4], Tim Ball [89, page 26], Don Easterbrook [89, page 26], Patrick Moore [93, page 2], Joseph D'Aleo [89, page 26], James Wallace III [89, page 26], Christopher Monckton [78; 81], Willis Eschenbach at the blog WattsUpWithThat [80], the Fraser Institute [77, page 14], Warren Meyer [87], CO2 Science [75; 96], Friends of Science [92], Principia Scientific International [79; 86], and other anonymous people whom climate scientists correct [95].

This myth's popularity may partially explain why United States political conservatives are less likely to accept that human release of greenhouse gases caused most of the recent global warming [301; 573 - 578; 2034] (not to mention the disproportionate number of conservatives who do not accept that there is solid evidence of global warming [300, figure 2; 573; 1966 - 1968; 2034]).

The myth's flaw: Correlations between CO2 and temperature are not the only line of evidence showing that increased CO2 causes global warming, with CO2 causing most of the recent warming. Other lines of evidence support this causal attribution, including the same types of evidence that support causal attribution in other scientific fields [99 - 104; 105, section 3.2; 108, section 8.1]. These lines of evidence include (with the corresponding sections in which I discuss each line of evidence): 

  • section 2.1  :  correlation between the cause and its effect
  • section 2.2  :  plausibility / a well-evidenced causal mechanism illustrating how the cause would produce the effect
  • section 2.3  :  analogy / comparison to similar causes
  • section 2.4  :  experimental evidence linking the cause and the effect
  • section 2.5  :  strength (the cause results in an effect with a large magnitude)
  • section 2.6  :  a physical gradient (more of the cause results in a greater effect)
  • section 2.7  :  consistency / reproducibility of the correlation between the cause and the effect
  • section 2.8  :  primacy / temporality (cause occurs before the effect and is temporally-associated with the effect)
  • section 2.9  :  specificity (cause results in a specific, predicted, observed set of effects not produced by various other proposed causes)
  • section 2.10  :  coherence with other lines of evidence / evidence excluding (or incoherent with) other plausible causes

{With the exception of sections 2.1 and 2.4, each section concludes with a brief summary of the overall point of the section. So feel free to use these summaries as a guide through each section.}

One engages in special pleading (or offering an unjustified double-standard) if one accepts these lines of evidence for causation in other fields, while refusing to accept this evidence in the case of CO2 causing warming. Moreover, if myth proponents object to this evidence when it applies to CO2-induced warming, then, if proponents remain consistent in their reasoning, the proponents' logic commits them to objecting to this evidence when it applies to other topics. Thus myth defenders would be committed to objecting to evidence for well-supported causal claims [938; 1556, from 37:54 to 44:55, discussing 1606; 1606 - 1609; 1686], such as HIV causing AIDS (section 2.3) and smoking causing cancer (sections 2.5 and 2.9). And that would serve as a reductio ad absurdum for the myth proponents' objection.



2. Context and Analysis



Section 2.1: Overview + correlation


Scientific evidence can reveal correlations/associations, as with the correlation between saturated fat intake vs. heart disease [853 - 859; 860, chapter 1; 1268] (though a number of commentators object to this association [840 - 850], while other commentators point out flaws in these objections [850 - 853], in line with evidence that vegetarian diets that limit saturated fat intake [1092; 1483] also improve heart-disease-related metrics [1090; 1091; 1482 - 1484]). In addition to correlation, scientists also investigate cause and effect. To aid in this pursuit, scientists and philosophers of science developed a number of frameworks for attributing an effect to a specific cause or causes. These frameworks for causal attribution include Bradford Hill considerations [99 - 104; 105, section 3.2; 108, section 8.1], Granger causality [8 - 10; 108, section 8.2], John Stuart Mill's methods for causal inference [107; 108, section 5.2], David Hume's methods (Hume also defended skepticism regarding causation in general) [106; 107; 108, section 5.1], and concepts from information theory [7], among others [108 - 111].

One can apply these aforementioned frameworks to causation in different scientific fields, as has been done [2059] for information theory [7] and Granger causality [8 - 10] with respect to increased CO2 causing warming. But what justifies the claim that increased CO2 causes warming? Is a correlation between CO2 changes and temperature changes enough to justify this causal claim? To make these questions more vivid, suppose someone presented the following graphs showing a correlation between changing CO2 levels and temperature changes:




Figure 1: (Top panel) Global CO2 levels and global surface temperature change from 1910 - 2017. CO2 levels are shown in parts per million per volume (ppmv), which is equivalent to ppm. The temperature is relative to a baseline of 1951 - 1980, from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature analysis version 4 (GISTEMP) [2090, figure 1]. A number of other sources [72, figure 1; 1754, figure 1; 2052, figure 1; 2098, figure 2; 2099, figure 4; 2100, pages 6 and 7; 2101 - 2103; 2107], including published studies [72, figure 1; 1754, figure 1; 2052, figure 1], offer similar depictions of CO2 levels in relation to global temperature changes.

This figure may overestimate 1940s - 1970s cooling due to uncertainties tied to changes in temperature monitoring practices during World War II [1659; 1677; 1688; 1731], as I discuss in "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming". Figure 23 below addresses this issue.

This top panel is not the best way to present a correlation that supports the theory of CO2-induced warming. For instance, there is a logarithmic, non-linear relationship between increased CO2 and increased temperature [72; 349, pages 736 and 740; 918, chapter 4]. So a 30ppm increase in CO2 would have a greater warming effect during the lower CO2 levels of the early 20th century vs. during the greater CO2 levels of the late 20th century. The logarithmic relationship between increased CO2 and CO2-induced warming [72; 349, pages 736 and 740; 918, chapter 4] means that a near-exponential increase in CO2 [20; 121, page 3; 482; 493, figure 1; 590, figure 2; 923; 1062, figure 6; 1400, figures 6, 7, 8, and 9; 1830] resulted in a more-linear rate of CO2-induced warming [72; 485 - 491; 1413, figure 4; 1415] across the 20th century [35, page 2349; 72; 487; 492; 493; 494, page 1; 1413, figure 4; 1415]. The aforementioned more-linear CO2-induced warming combined with temperature trends caused by other factors, such as aerosols, yielding the observed 20th century temperature trend. Thus increased greenhouse gases contributed between a quarter to a half of the 1910s - 1940s warming [1078, figure 3 on page 7; 1360; 1361]. Other factors, such as increased solar output, contributed to 1910s - 1940s warming [1078, figure 3, on page 7; 1360; 1361; 1659]. But these factors can be ruled out as primary causes of post-1960s warming. The evidence ruling out these causes also rules in increased CO2 as the primary cause of post-1960s warming (see sections 2.5, 2.6, 2.9, and 2.10 for more on this, along with figures 22, 23, and 25).

(Bottom panel) CO2 level and temperature change estimated from an Antarctic ice core [12]; a 2019 study explained similar results over a longer time-period using climate models [1589; 1590]. 1°C of Antarctic warming from this figure translates to ~0.6°C of global warming [118 (to be read with 1655 - 1657; 1861); 1589; 1604, figure 12]. The figures's data is taken from two published studies [112; 113]. "Years before present" (BP) on the x-axis means "years before 1950" [114]; this point sometimes confuses contrarians [982, from 5:33 to 7:52; 1033, from 8:13 to 9:10; 1035, page 95; 1039]. And the aforementioned data stops by about 38 BP [115; 116], which is equivalent to ~1912. So this figure does not include most of the warming and CO2 increase since the 20th century; CO2 levels are now above 410ppm [117; 1406; 1408; 1409; 1432; 1620; 1837; 2096], the highest they have been in at least 2 million years [1589; 1662; 1922; 2085; 2086].

Along with temperature, sea level also increased with increasing CO2 and decreased with decreasing CO2 in the distant past [469; 1069; 1604, figure 12; 1639], as per warming-induced sea level rise from melting land ice and thermal expansion of ocean water [466 - 468; 1069; 1070; 1721]. Moreover, warming-induced, man-made sea level rise also occurred during the industrial era [470; 472 - 480]. A number of other sources [3 - 6; 18 (to be read with 2104 - 2106); 118 (to be read with 1655 - 1657; 1861); 187; 363; 448, with 449; 640, page 1730; 642, page 435; 949, pages 44 and 45; 1069; 1604; 1861; 1862; 1869] discuss how changes in greenhouse gas levels impact the ice age glacial-interglacial cycles shown in this bottom panel; see section 2.8 for further discussion.

(In section 2.8, I rebut the argument that since figure 1's bottom panel shows that CO2 increases lag temperature increases, figure 1 undermines the case for CO2-induced warming. And in "Myth: An Ice Core Shows a Spike in CO2 Levels without a Spike in Temperature", I debunk attempts to use a modified version of figure 1 to argue that CO2 does not cause warming.)


Other sources also show a long-term correlation between CO2 and temperature changes [5; 11; 13 - 21; 447; 1055; 1069, figure 1, with temperature change in panel d updated in 1057; 1589; 1604; 1639]. For instance, in section 2.10 I present other CO2-induced temperature trend correlations during the distant past and during the recent industrial-era. One common reply to this correlation is to claim that "correlation does not imply causation," as in the case of spurious correlations [1790 - 1796; 1805; 1806] between stork population and human birth rates [1805; 1806], or between a country's chocolate consumption and their number of Nobel laureates [1793 - 1795]. So claiming that CO2 causes warming involves incorrectly inferring causation from correlation [75 - 83; 85 - 87; 89 - 93; 95; 96]; this is the myth this blogpost focuses on.  

Though it is true that correlation does not guarantee causation, correlation/association should be used as part of a cumulative case for causation. In this blogpost I illustrate this point by applying some methods of causal inference to show that CO2 caused global warming. I will primarily focus on Bradford Hill considerations used for inferring causation [99 - 104; 105, section 3.2; 108, section 8.1]. I will also follow Bradford Hill's example [99] and explain how these considerations apply not only to the CO2-temperature causal relationship, but also to causal relationships in numerous other branches of science. This should provide broader context on how scientists support causal claims using these considerations

So if myth defenders object to these considerations, then they are not simply objecting to climate science; they are also objecting to causal attribution, and trend-based reasoning, in other scientific fields [938; 1556, from 37:54 to 44:55, discussing 1606; 1606 - 1609; 1686]. As the climate scientist Gavin Schmidt [95; 1121; 1355; 1605], and other scientists [6; 1119; 1120; 1356; 1358], have noted:

"Note that it helps enormously to think about attribution in contexts that don’t have anything to do with anthropogenic [a.k.a. man-made] causes. For some reason that allows people to think a little bit more clearly about the problem [95]."

(A note on analogies: Throughout this blogpost, I make analogies between CO2-induced warming and other topics, such saturated-fat-induced heart disease and HIV causing AIDS. The basic structure of these analogical arguments [1608; 1609; 2125 - 2130] is:
  1. compare two or more matters
  2. point out a relevant similarity or difference between those matters
  3. draw a conclusion from that similarity or difference
Logical reasoning works in that way. For instance, one can point out that two arguments are both instances of modus ponens, and from that draw the conclusion that both arguments are formerly valid, such that if their premises are true, then their conclusion is true. Or one can point out that two arguments use wishful thinking, making both arguments not cogent. I use analogies for a number of reasons, such as exposing the special pleading involved in myth proponents defending the myth using ridiculous arguments they would not accept in another scientific topics. The analogies also provide a reductio ad absurdum by showing that if the myth advocate's reasoning was applied to other scientific topics, then it would commit them to not accepting well-supported causal claims that they actually should accept. And research shows that analogies to other topics can effectively expose errors in one's scientific reasoning [938; 1556, from 37:54 to 44:55, discussing 1606; 1606 - 1609; 1686; 2127 - 2130].)

My use of Bradford Hill considerations should debunk the myth that correlations between CO2 and temperature changes are the only line of evidence showing that CO2 causes warming. These considerations will also support the evidence-based [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 202, chapter 3; 394; 684; 887; 1078; 1101; 1108; 1185; 1357; 1658; 1659; 1741; 1754; 1787; 1831; 1836, pages 22 - 24, 1838, page 57] scientific consensus [28; 31, table 1; 32, figure 2 v007 on page 11; 33, page 49, 499 page 28 in chapter 2; 500] that humans caused most of the post-1950s and post-1970s global warming, primarily through humanity's release of CO2. For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) notes that there is a 95% or greater [119, page 3] chance that most of the global warming from 1951 to 2010 was caused by humans [121, page 4; 373, page 869 and 884]. The IPCC also notes that there is 90% or greater chance [119, page 3] that man-made increases in greenhouses gases caused most of the warming from 1951 to 2010 [373, pages 869 and 884], with CO2 being the primary greenhouse gas released by human activity [121, figure SPM.2 on page 5].

So let's see how Bradford Hill considerations support this evidence-based consensus on CO2-induced warming, starting with the metric of "plausibility."


Section 2.2: Plausibility / a well-evidenced causal mechanism


Astrology claims that the motion of distant planets, stars, etc. strongly influence people's lives, personalities, and so on [122 - 124]. Astrology remains deeply implausible since astrologists provide no evidence-based mechanism via which astronomical bodies could strongly affect people lives and personalities [122, section 4.3; 124, pages 1571 and 1572]. Some critics accuse the myth proponent Nicola Scafetta of resorting to something like astrology [125 - 128; 937; 1225; 1381]. Scafetta [129 - 131; 1223; 1224; 1369; 1382], among others [937; 1193; 1270, from 14:37 to 18:52; 1650 - 1652], looks for correlations between Earth's climate and astronomical phenomena, such as Jupiter's and Saturn's tidal forces [129 - 131; 1223; 1224; 1382].

And as with astrologers, Scafetta (and others [1371; 1498 - 1500]) use a "phenomenological" approach to side-step the need to provide a detailed, evidence-based mechanism for how these astronomical factors strongly influence phenomena on Earth [132, section 6 on pages 12 - 14]. His pseudo-astrological account predicts slight global cooling after about 2001 [131, figure 12; 1223, figure 16; 1224, figure 6; 1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82], though post-2001 warming actually occurred, as I discuss in section 2.5, "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades", and section 2.1 of "Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable". Sometimes contrarians drop the "pseudo-" in "pseudo-astrology," and simply use astrology to explain climate change, as in the case of the astrologist Theodor Landscheidt [1565]. As with Scafetta [131, figure 12; 1223, figure 16; 1224, figure 6; 1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82], Landscheidt forecasted cooling [1566] when warming instead occurred. Amazingly, quite a number of contrarians treat Landscheidt's claims as being credible [1566 - 1573].

Fortunately, mainstream climate science is not astrology. Unlike astrologers, mainstream climate scientists offer well-evidenced mechanisms to account for cause-and-effect relationships. For instance, since at least the 1800s, scientists have known how greenhouse gases cause warming [133, page 1328; 134; 135, page 68; 137, from 5:40 to 7:46, and 9:12 to 14:08; 1171, pages 10 - 14; 1182, section on "The carbon dioxide greenhouse effect"; 1512, page 117; 1578, from 11:27 to 15:20; 1839; 1999]; a warming effect was known since at least Eunice Foote's 1856 work [1386, page 383; 1387; 1817]. Unfortunately, many members of the public do not understand the mechanisms underlying greenhouse-gas-induced warming, as discussed below (though education can remedy this lack of knowledge [136; 155; 156], increasing public acceptance of climate science [136; 835; 836; 1558, using 1559] and concern about climate change [836 - 839]):

"However, the public virtually never sees cogent scientific explanations of global warming's mechanism.
[...]
Yet we might expect scientifically literate people to produce a brief, mechanistic, global warming explanation—as in these 35 words: “Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly—raising Earth's temperature [emphasis added] [136, pages 51 - 52].”"

To elaborate on this further: let's start with an analogy. Imagine an open pot of water, placed over a fire. The pot takes in energy from the fire, and also releases energy into the environment. One can add fuel to the fire, strengthening the fire and thus adding more energy to the pot, generating an energy imbalance in which the pot takes in more energy that the pot releases. The pot warms in response, releasing more energy as it warms; the more sensitive the pot is to the energy imbalance, the more the pot warms. The pot will stop warming in response to the pot releasing as much (or more) energy than the pot takes in, yielding an energy balance and an equilibrium in which the pot takes in about as much energy as it releases.

Earth's climate operates on the same general principle of temperature changes in response to an energy imbalance. Earth's surface takes in shorter-wavelength (higher energy) solar radiation and releases longer-wavelength (lower energy) radiation. If Earth releases less energy than it takes in, then this creates an energy imbalance, which results in Earth warming [37; 142 - 144; 148; 688; 918, chapter 4; 1221]. Greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane, emit radiation and transfer energy via colliding with other molecules. CO2 also absorbs some of the longer-wavelength radiation emitted by the Earth, but not incoming shorter-wavelength solar radiation, with CO2 absorbing radiation in specific wavelengths [137, from 9:13 to 10:28; 138 - 141; 145 - 147; 149; 151; 315; 317; 688; 918, chapter 4; 1074; 1269; 1426]. Thus greenhouse gases engage such as CO2 in radiative forcing [37; 138; 139; 144; 145; 149; 317; 688; 1074; 1150, section 8.1; 1269; 1399; 1578, from 3:18 to 4:45; 1737; 1927], slow the rate at which Earth releases energy, and cause an energy imbalance [37; 142 - 144; 148; 151; 688; 918, chapter 4; 1221; 1269; 1737; 1924] that results in warming. Radiative forcing, with its units of watts per square meter (energy per unit of space per unit of time) [37; 138; 139; 144; 145; 149; 317; 688; 1074; 1150, section 8.1; 1269; 1399; 1578, from 3:18 to 4:45; 1737], measures that energy imbalance. CO2-induced warming also melts solar-radiation-reflecting ice, increases water vapor levels, and affects cloud cover; this increases the amount of shorter-wavelength solar radiation absorbed by the Earth [179; 1122; 1420], as I discuss later in this section.

The IPCC depicts this process as follows:


Figure 2: The IPCC's depiction of radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, in which greenhouses gases (such as CO2) slow the rate at which Earth releases energy, warming the Earth [88, figure 1 on page 7]. The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provides a more quantitative depiction at a layman's level [979], as do other sources [316, figure 1; 1074, figure 1; 1797; 1960, figure B1].

This process is somewhat analogous to what happens to you when you wear a thick blanket [154; 433, pages 38 - 39; 434, page 25; 435; 1737]. Your body generates heat through muscle contractions and other processes, somewhat analogous to the Sun adding shorter-wavelength radiation to Earth. Your thick blanket traps air near your skin, slowing the rate at which you release heat energy into the environment through your skin, somewhat akin to how increased greenhouse gas cause warming via an energy imbalance. Thus the blanket creates an energy imbalance, causing you to warm [154; 430 - 432; 433, page 38; 1737]. This blanket-induced warming can damage the body in certain cases, especially in young children [431; 432]. In addition to this blanket analogy, other sources provide different comparisons that help illustrate the aforementioned greenhouse gas effect at a layman's level [136; 149 - 156; 688; 1074; 1418; 1419; 1421; 1512, page 117; 1517; 1556, from 8:25 to 23:23; 1737; 1797; 1815; 1819; 1853; 1874; 1959; 1974; 2010, section 2.1.2].

Some individuals on the Internet make nonsensical criticisms of the science on this greenhouse effect [150; 153; 154; 157 - 166; 366; 730; 732; 733; 939; 1103; 1110; 1815]; this applies especially to critics who attempt to replace the greenhouse effect with atmospheric pressure [154; 158; 160; 162; 165; 166; 366; 939; 1089; 1366; 1376; 1377; 1436 - 1438; 1481; 1576; 1638; 1756; 1814]. Many of these critics, or sky dragon slayers [157; 730; 733; 734], claim that the greenhouse effect violates the second law of thermodynamics. The slayers argue that the net flow of energy should be from the hotter object to the colder object, as per the second law. Yet the greenhouse effect (supposedly) assumes that a greenhouse-gas-rich atmosphere warms the surface, even though the lower atmosphere is colder than the surface [150; 153; 157 - 159; 732; 733; 1165; 1166; 1365; 1593, from 16:10 to 21:37; 1815].

But the slayers' criticism makes no sense, as illustrated by the blanket analogy. The blanket can warm you via an energy imbalance, even if the blanket is cooler than your body temperature; so a heated blanket is not required for warming you. Analogously, greenhouses gases do not need to make Earth's atmosphere warmer than the rest of the Earth, in order for these gases to warm Earth.

Or to give another analogy: suppose a pump above a pool of water adds water to the pool. A drain at the bottom of the pool allows water to flow out and into a tank downhill of the pool. There are at least two ways to increase the water level in the pool: increase the amount of water pumped in from above, or constrict the drain to limit the amount of water that leaves from below. The latter method works even though, with respect to the drain, the net flow of water is still downhill into the tank rather than uphill into the pool. Figure 3 below summarizes how constricting the drain would increase the level of water in the pool:


Figure 3: An analogy between the balance of water in a pool, and the Earth's energy balance, courtesy of @kmp010 [1059]. (left panel) Water enters and leaves the pool at the same rate in liters per second (L/s), causing the level of the water to remain the same. Similarly, if Earth takes in as much energy as Earth releases, then Earth achieves an energy balance. (right panel) Constricting the drain causes water to leave the pipe at a slower rate than water entering the pipe. This causes the pool's water level to rise. Analogously, increasing greenhouse gas levels slow the rate at which Earth releases energy in particular wavelengths, to the point that Earth takes in more energy than Earth releases. This results in an energy imbalance, an increase in Earth's energy, and thus warming.

Analogously, there are at least two ways to warm the Earth. One can increase the amount of shorter-wavelength radiation coming in, such as by increasing solar radiation [811 - 815]. Or one can slow Earth's release of longer-wavelength radiation, such as by increasing greenhouse gas levels [37; 142 - 144; 148; 151; 688; 918, chapter 4]. This latter method still works even though, with respect to the atmosphere, the net flow of longer-wavelength radiation is still out from the surface to the atmosphere and then into space [150; 151, page 38; 316, figure 1; elaborated explanation from me: 2054].

This runs contrary to the slayers' faulty criticism, which claims that the greenhouse effect involves the net flow of longer-wavelength radiation in from the greenhouse-gas-rich atmosphere to the surface. Or to put in terms of the pool analogy: the slayers' nonsensical criticism is akin to saying that constricting the drain increases the pool's water level only if the net flow of water is uphill from the tank into the pool. Thus the slayers' critique fails since it depends on a misrepresentation of the greenhouse effect.

Given the aforementioned discussion, the greenhouse effect provides an evidence-based mechanism via which CO2 causes warming. Other non-CO2 factors also impact this CO2-induced warming. In response to warming, positive feedbacks amplify subsequent warming and negative feedbacks limit subsequent warming [167; 168; 437; 1263]; I discuss this further in section 2.8, along with "Myth: No Hot Spot Implies Less Global Warming and Support for Lukewarmerism". Evidence-based causal mechanisms underlie each one of these feedbacks. The primary long-term feedbacks are [169; 170, section 1; 171; 179; 1065; 1122; 1956] (see figure 4 for the relative magnitude of some of these feedbacks; other smaller feedbacks exist, such as positive feedback from methane causing more global warming, as warming-induced melting of ice and lakes releases more methane [1401 - 1405; 1654, page 14]):

  • Water vapor as a positive feedback [179; 1122]: Warming evaporates liquid water to form water vapor. This increases water vapor levels in the air [172 - 176; 688], because warmer air can hold more water vapor [169; 170, section 1; 177; 178; 688; 1050; 1058]. More water vapor causes further warming, since water vapor is a greenhouse gas [169; 175; 179 - 182; 688; 1058; 1604; 2010, paragraph 25 and section 3.1] (see sections 2.3 and 2.8 for further discussion).
  • Clouds as a positive feedback: Clouds reflect solar radiation into space, or emit infrared radiation into space, and thus can act as a negative feedback; clouds also reflect/absorb radiation emitted by the Earth or absorb solar radiation and thus can act as a positive feedback [177; 179; 183; 184; 1122]. Lower level clouds tend to act as a negative feedback, while higher level clouds tend to act as a positive feedback [170; 177; 183 - 185; 1577]. Climate models predict a net positive feedback from clouds, with radiative forcing from clouds becoming more positive with warming, due to increases in higher level clouds and reductions in lower level clouds in response to warming [183; 186; 213; 214]. For instance [1948], suppose in 1990 clouds have a net cooling effect of -2.0 K/year. Then it warmed for 10 years due to non-cloud factors, leading to clouds having a more positive cooling effect of -1.5 K/year by 2000, allowing for more warming for 10 years, leading to the clouds having an even more positive cooling effect of -1.0 K/year by 2010, allowing for more warming, and so on. This illustrates how positive feedback from clouds can augment warming, even if clouds overall have a cooling effect each year. So what matters for feedback is how the clouds' impact changes with temperature changes, not necessarily whether the sign of the clouds' impact is positive or negative at a given point in time. A similar point applies to other feedbacks.
  • Surface albedo as a positive feedback: Ice has a greater albedo than liquid water, meaning that ice reflects more visible light from the Sun back into space than does liquid water. Melting ice therefore reduces Earth's albedo and increases the amount of radiation absorbed by Earth's surface [11; 170; 187; 688]. This increase in absorbed radiation causes more surface warming and therefore more ice melt; thus melting ice acts as a positive feedback amplifying warming [171; 188 - 191; 688; 1122].
  • Lapse rate reduction as a negative feedback: Temperature in the troposphere, a lower layer of the atmosphere, decreases with increasing height; the rate of decrease is known as the tropospheric lapse rate. The magnitude of the lapse rate decreases when the upper troposphere warms faster than the lower troposphere, and when the lower troposphere warms faster than the surface, especially in the tropics. Transferring warming from the surface up to the troposphere thus reduces the lapse rate [137, from 31:01 to 31:48; 172; 173; 179; 192, pages 4 and 22; 193 - 196; 197, pages 7 and 8; 198, pages 101 and 102; 1798 - 1800; 1943] and allows Earth to more easily radiate this energy into space. So lapse rate reduction limits global warming [169 - 171; 173; 179; 196; 199 - 201; 202, section 2.6.1 on page 90; 203, figure 3c on page 5 and page 16; 204; 1263; 1798 - 1800; 1943]. In contrast to the tropics, within the Arctic the surface warms faster than the lower troposphere and the lower troposphere warms faster than the upper troposphere [137, from 29:38 to 31:01; 180, page 445; 197; 198; 551; 1226 - 1231; 1232, page 375; 1263; 1798; 1943], leading to a lapse rate increase and a positive lapse rate feedback in the Arctic [171; 437; 1226; 1233 - 1239; 1263; 1798; 1799; 1943].
  • Planck feedback as a negative feedback: As Earth warms, Earth radiates more energy into space, as per the Stefan-Boltzmann law. This increased radiation represents the Planck feedback and serves as a negative feedback that limits the amount of energy Earth accumulates as Earth warms [151, page 33; 169; 170, section 1; 202, section 2.6.1 on pages 89 - 90; 436 - 438; 1213; 1420; 1578, from 4:44 to 6:29; 1956].

These feedback mechanisms are borne out in reality. Water vapor [170; 200; 205 - 212; 290; 292; 1054; 1058; 1261; 1787; 2024], clouds [170; 185; 186; 200; 213 - 219; 1338; 1379; 1518; 1520; 1577; 1787; 1871; 1955], and reduced surface albedo [188 - 190; 200; 220 - 222; 1787] acted as positive feedbacks amplifying global warming. And in the tropics, the mid-to-upper troposphere warmed more than near the surface, as shown in satellite analyses [193, figure 9B on page 385; 223, table 4 on page 2285; 224; 225], weather balloon analyses [226, figure 2c; 227, figure 9; 228, figures 1 and 2], re-analyses [229, figure 23 on page 348 and section 10.2.2 on page 351; 230, figure 7; 231, figure 1; 232, figure 4; 233, figure 4], and other sources [234; 235, as cited in 236, page 651]. This tropospheric hot spot indicates that the tropical lapse rate decreased (I discuss this further in "Myth: The Tropospheric Hot Spot does not Exist"). This lapse rate reduction acted as a negative feedback limiting global warming [170; 173; 200; 203, figure 3c on page 5 and page 16; 204; 1787]. The Arctic near-surface also warmed faster than the Arctic upper troposphere [137, from 29:38 to 31:01; 188; 1109; 1240; 1241 - 1246, using 741, as per 742], indicative of a positive lapse rate feedback [171; 437; 1226; 1233 - 1239; 1263]. The processes underlying this positive lapse rate feedback contribute [1226; 1233; 1234; 1239; 1263; 1787] to strong surface warming in the Arctic [188; 759; 1013; 1240; 1247 - 1253, using 741, as per 742; 1787], resulting in greater surface warming in the Arctic than in the tropics and than the global average [137, from 29:38 to 31:01, and 31:47 to 33:34; 227; 228; 759; 1013; 1247 - 1253, using 741, as per 742; 1254 - 1256; 1787], consistent with climate models and basic physical theory [137, from 29:38 to 31:01, and 31:47 to 33:34; 197; 198; 437 551; 1227; 1229; 1231; 1232, page 375; 1263].

And in accordance with the Planck feedback, Earth released more radiation during the warm El Niño phase of an ocean cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [439 - 441]; the radiation increase occurred largely because El Niño increased cloud cover and these clouds then reflected the solar radiation Earth would otherwise absorb [439; 442]. This cloud-based mechanism compensated [223; 225] for less emission of radiation by clouds during El Niño [227; 228]. Thus Earth radiated more energy into space as Earth warmed [178; 443; 444].

In contrast to the temporary ocean warming events such as El Niño [445; 446], CO2 remains for much longer [5; 11 - 21; 447], driving a longer-term energy imbalance [37; 142 - 144; 1221]. Thus CO2 can cause long-term global warming, as CO2 has done in the past [11; 15; 182; 447; 1055] (ex: see the cited paleoclimate papers in figure 7), while El Niño does not, as I discuss in "Myth: El Niño Caused Post-1997 Global Warming". Eventually, however, CO2-induced warming stops, in part because increased radiation release by a warming Earth leads to an equilibrium in which Earth's release of energy into space equals the solar energy entering Earth [167; 349]. Figure 4 depicts a model-based estimate of how much various feedbacks contribute to warming upon equilibrium:


Figure 4: (a) Average temperature increase for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, upon reaching equilibrium, in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). This temperature increase is also known as equilibrium climate sensitivity, or ECS; I discuss ECS further in section 2.5. Panel a also depicts the contribution of various feedbacks to this temperature change in the CMIP3 models. The Planck response represents temperature response to forcing from CO2, without taking other feedbacks into account [68; 533, section 2.6.1 on page 90 - 91]. (b) Average relative magnitude of each feedback in the CMIP3 models, with stronger positive feedbacks having a more positive value and stronger negative feedbacks having a more negative value. Error bars indicate +/- one standard deviation [169, figure 5; also see 1065, figure 1].

Thus the Planck feedback [151, page 33; 169; 170, section 1; 202, section 2.6.1 on pages 89 - 90; 436 - 438; 1213; 1420] eventually catches up to the radiative forcing from CO2, leading to equilibrium, stopping CO2-induced warming, and preventing irreversible, Venus-style [286; 644, pages 17 and 24; 645 - 648; 649, from 1:55 to 3:36], runaway global warming with a runaway greenhouse gas effect. Positive feedback from melting ice also ends once all the ice melts, preventing the ice-albedo feedback from causing a runaway. Moreover, the water vapor feedback fails to result in irreversible, runaway warming. As I discuss in section 2.3, water vapor is a condensing greenhouse gas [182; 286; 287; 1150, FAQ 8.1 on pages 666 and 667; 1418, section 7.3.3; 1419, page 80; 1604] that amplifies warming [170; 200; 205 - 212; 1054; 1261] from longer-term factors, but fails to drive warming on its own [182; 287; 1150, FAQ 8.1 on pages 666 and 667; 1604]. So in the absence of another factor, such as continued increases in CO2 or continued increases in solar output, to drive long-term warming above the temperature at which water vapor condenses, water vapor cannot drive warming and thus cannot cause a runaway (I discuss runaway warming further in section 2.8).

But even in the absence of CO2-induced runaway warming [169; 286; 367, page 1372; 644, pages 17 and 24; 646 - 648; 650, page 90; 672; 1069], however, increased CO2 can contribute to a number of phenomena, including ocean acidification [451 - 456; 585; 590; 974; 1060; 1821; 1949], ocean deoxygenation [1373; 1532; 1560 - 1564; 1665; 1666; 1949; 1969; 1970], warming-induced [466 - 468; 1069; 1070; 1721; 1949] sea level rise [469 - 480; 1063; 1069; 1264; 1604, figure 12; 1949], frequency and intensity of extreme weather events [462 - 465; 807; 828; 977; 1257 - 1259], and mass extinctions [455 - 458; 969, table 2 on page 549; 1077; 1112; 1155; 1532 - 1534; 1820] (such as the current man-made mass extinction [459 - 461; 1072; 1113 - 1118; 1501; 1535; 1971]); I discuss ocean acidification further in "Myth: Ocean Acidification Requires that an Ocean Becomes an Acid". So evidence on these, and other [595; 597 - 614; 615, page 3; 616 - 629; 654; 663; 664; 971; 975; 976; 980; 983; 1064; 1066; 1067; 1069; 1072; 1073; 1079; 1083; 1111; 1180; 1181; 1265; 1491 - 1497; 1501; 1513; 1526; 1574; 1580; 1616; 1642; 1653; 1740; 1844 - 1846; 1848; 1849; 1949], effects of CO2-induced climate change led to an evidence-based scientific consensus that climate change is a serious problem [121, pages 6 - 16; 500; 591; 592, figure 2 for v007 and figure 88 for v043; 593, section 17 on page 19; 594; 595, page 17; 596; 1526; 1557; 1822; 1949], regardless of the scientific evidence against imminent, CO2-induced, runaway global warming [169; 286; 367, page 1372; 644, pages 17 and 24; 646 - 648; 650, page 90; 672; 1069]. And despite the Planck response preventing runaway warming, positive feedback can augment CO2-induced warming at current and near-future atmospheric CO2 levels; moreover, radiative forcing from CO2 continues to increase with increasing CO2 levels [11; 151, page 37; 448 - 450; 918, page 35 of chapter 4; 1074; 1587, figure 1; 2108].

Let's contrast the aforementioned mechanisms with the following common, contrarian: industrial-era global warming simply represents a recovery from a "little ice age" (LIA) that occurred a few centuries ago [984 - 994; 1102; 1271; 1398, page 74; 1410; 1617; 1699]. Let's set aside the question of whether [761; 879, sections 1 and 4.3.1; 995 - 997] or not [998 - 1000; 1748] the LIA was a worldwide event, with a globally simultaneous cooling period lasting for multiple decades. And let's also set aside the issue of what caused the LIA, though evidence points to a number of contributing factors [879, section 1; 1597; 1598; 1733 - 1735; 1749] that remain consistent with human release of greenhouse gases causing industrial-era global warming [6, page 450; 879, section 1; 880; 1597; 1598; 1749]. The deeper issue is that "recovery from the LIA" represents a dormitive virtue.

Appealing to a dormitive virtue involves explaining an effect by appealing to the effect, usually via wordplay. This results in a pseudo-explanation, not a real explanation. The classic example of a dormitive virtue is claiming that a drug causes sleep due to the sleep-inducing power, or "dormitive virtue," of the drug [1001, section 2; 1002; 1003, section 6a; 1004; 1005, page 300]. This account does not actually explain how the drug causes sleep; the account offers no causal mechanism [1001 - 1003]. It simply names the supposed cause ("sleep-inducing power") by rephrasing the effect ("sleep"), linking them by definition.

Contrarians resort to the same tactic when they appeal to a "recovery from the LIA": they simply name the supposed cause ("recovery from the LIA") by rephrasing the effect ("warming following the LIA"), linking them by definition. Such an account offers no causal mechanism nor an explanation of how the effect was produced, nor why the warming began when it did, nor why the warming occurred at the rate it did in the hockey stick pattern I discuss in section 2.7, etc. This is made clear in the following 1988 quote from Sherwood Idso:

"A comparative analysis of long-term (several-hundred-year) temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) trends suggests that the global warming of the past century is not due to the widely accepted CO2 greenhouse effect but rather to the natural recovery of the Earth from the global chill of the Little Ice Age, which was both initiated and ended by some unrelated phenomenon [emphasis added], the latter expression of which is the very warming generally attributed to the CO2 increase of the past century [984]."

The climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf makes the point well when he writes:

"“Emerging from the little ice age” is not a physical mechanism or explanation [1410]."

A vacuous "recovery from the LIA" account contrasts with increased solar irradiance as a mechanism of global warming, or the greenhouse-induced causal mechanisms I discussed above. For instance, Syun-Ichi Akasofu, a proponent of the "recovery from the LIA" account [1214; 1215; 1217; 1219] (who views climate science in political terms [1219]), suggests that the recovery occurred because Earth received increased solar output and decreased cosmic ray exposure [1214; 1215]. This explanation fares poorly, especially with respect to post-1960s global warming, as I discuss in sections 2.9 and 2.10. Moreover, Akasofu's account entails that Earth slightly cooled since 2000 [1214, figure 5], as did Scafetta's pseudo-astrological account from earlier in this section [129, figure 5; 131, figure 12; 1223, figure 16; 1224, figure 6; 1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82]. But Earth instead warmed [1318; 1331 - 1334, 1698, outliers in 1335, generated using 741, as per 742], as I discuss in section 2.5, "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades", and section 2.1 of "Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable". Even some of Akasofu's defenders admit his prediction under-estimated warming, as per a larger effect from human-made, greenhouse-gas-induced warming [2036, citing 2037 - 2039, for 2040; similar point in: 2041 - 2043]. Despite these fatal flaws in Akasofu's account, he attempts [1214; 1215] to offer a non-vacuous mechanistic explanation for industrial-era global warming, though he initially failed to adequately do so [1216; 1217; 1219] and his work [1214] may not have undergone competent peer review [1218].

In contrast to Akasofu, contrarians may resort to such a vacuous account because they erroneously [1216; 1220] believe that it is in Earth's nature to warm or "recover" from a cold period such as the LIA [984; 1216; 1220; 1271; 1699]. Sherwood Idso's quote above [984] illustrates this point. But figure 1 debunks this contrarian idea, by showing that regions of the Earth can become much cooler than during the LIA. Thus contrarians cannot appeal to a dormitive virtue to claim that it is simply in Earth's nature to warm after a cold period. Instead if they want to explain why the Earth warmed instead of cooling further, then they need a causal mechanism detailing how this occurred. They cannot rebut the idea of CO2-induced, man-made global warming by appealing to a mechanism-free "memory" by which Earth's climate warms to its prior state following cooling [1216; 1220; 1599, page 7158; 1600, page 5254; 1601 - 1603].

So in summary: many contrarians appeal to mechanism-free dormitive virtues and pseudo-astrological explanations. In contrast, mainstream climate science involves a broad understanding of the forcing and feedback mechanisms underlying, amplifying, and mitigating long-term CO2-induced warming. This differentiates climate science from astrology, and provides plausibility to the idea that CO2 causes warming.


Section 2.3: Analogy / comparison to other similar causes


Some viruses infect specific organisms, causing deficiencies of the immune system known as immunodeficiency syndromes. A classic example of this is feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) infecting specific feline species. Overtime the population of organisms evolves, becoming more resistant to the virus. Thus when FIV infects these well-adapted organisms, the virus does not cause serious disease nor immunodeficiency [245; 252; 253]. However, when FIV-infected blood from the well-adapted species transfers to a closely-related species that is not well-adapted, FIV can cause disease and immunodeficiency in this poorly-adapted population [245; 249 - 255]. This same pattern occurs with other viruses in the same family as FIV [245; 249; 250; 253; 254].

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is in the same family of viruses as FIV [245; 249; 250; 253; 254] and other such viruses, such as equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) [257; 258], bovine immunodeficiency virus (BIV) [259; 260], and visna virus [255; 256]. HIV evolved from simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) [237 - 241; 243], a virus that likely transferred from non-human primates to humans when humans butchered non-human primates for food or other products [237; 238]. HIV and SIV display a similar pattern as FIV: SIV causes little-to-no disease in primates that are well-adapted to it [237; 242 - 246] but causes disease (rarely) in poorly adapted non-human primates [244 - 246], SIV (now HIV) transferred from non-human primates to a closely-related group of primates known as humans [237 - 241; 243], HIV caused disease and immunodeficiency in the poorly-adapted humans [242; 243; 245; 246], and HIV caused little-to-no disease in the humans well-adapted to HIV [242; 261 - 263]. Thus HIV causes a disease known as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or AIDS [111; 242; 243; 245; 246], though AIDS denialists do not admit this [22; 111; 271 - 274; 816; 934; 1266].

So what does any of this have to do with CO2 and global warming? Well, AIDS denialists compare themselves to "skeptics" of CO2-induced, anthropogenic (man-made) global warming (AGW) [ex: 264; 816, as per 1828; 968; 1961; 1963; 1964]. Furthermore, AIDS denialists sometimes publish in the same disreputable venues [265 - 269; 1194; 1198; 1199; 1201; 1202; 1961 - 1964], and resort to the same irrational tactics, as AGW denialists; hence these two forms of science denialism are often compared [270 - 278; 335; 816, page 28; 1266; 1852].

But beyond these points, the HIV/AIDS example illustrates that similar causes often result in similar effects. So for instance, HIV, SIV, and FIV are in the same family of viruses and produce similar effects in infected, poorly-adapted organisms [245; 249; 250; 253; 254]. Thus AIDS denialists need to explain why HIV-related viruses such as SIV and FIV cause immunodeficiency syndromes, while the AIDS denialists claim that HIV does not cause the immunodeficiency syndrome AIDS. Failure to provide an explanation amounts to special pleading or an unjustified double-standard (credit to C0nc0rdance for independently developing this comparison [247; 248; 279]).

A parallel point extends to CO2 and greenhouse gases. So suppose an AGW denialist does not accept that greenhouse gases cause warming by instigating an energy imbalance. Then the denialist would need to explain why blankets warm the body by slowing down the rate of energy release, while greenhouse gases do not cause warming via a similar mechanism (see section 2.2 for further discussion of the blanket analogy and energy imbalance). But suppose the denialist does accept that greenhouse gases such as water vapor and methane cause warming, while CO2 does not. The denialist would then need to explain why water vapor and methane cause warming via the mechanism discussed in section 2.2, while CO2 does not cause warming by the same mechanism. Failure to provide an explanation amounts to special pleading or an unjustified double-standard.

Some critics insist that CO2 cannot significantly impact climate, since Earth's atmosphere contains only trace amounts of CO2 measured in parts per million [954, from 11:08 to 11:26; 955; 956; 958; 1410; 1521, from 00:29 to 07:22; 1825; 1826; 1841, from 18:39 to 19:08]. Yet these same critics refute themselves when they claim that plants use trace levels of CO2 for photosynthesis [955; 957 - 959; 1521, from 3:50 to 6:20]. So the critics should stop pretending that trace amounts of a substance must always have negligible effects. Saying otherwise is as fallacious as an AIDS denialist saying that HIV cannot have a large effect on the human body, since HIV makes up just a trace proportion of the body's mass. Even though gases such as nitrogen, oxygen, and argon make up >98% of the atmosphere, they do not perform the radiative forcing that greenhouse gases do (I discussed radiative forcing in section 2.2) [918, chapter 4; 953; 1874]. Thus greenhouse gases play an important role in climate, even though greenhouse gases occur at trace levels.

Though CO2 has some similarities to other greenhouse gases, it differs from them in important ways, just as HIV differs from FIV in ways that allow HIV (but not FIV) to cause AIDS in humans [250; 253]. Take, for instance, the contrast between CO2 and methane [280 - 282]. Though an individual methane molecule has more of a warming impact than an individual CO2 molecule [281, section 5; 283, pages 1 - 2], CO2 is a more important greenhouse gas than methane for a number of reasons. For example:

  1. CO2 is more abundant in the atmosphere [280, page 243; 282, figure 2].
  2. Bacteria break down much of the methane to form CO2 [284, sections 2 and 3; 285, figure 1]. 
  3. CO2 has a longer atmospheric residence time than methane, since methane readily reacts with other molecules higher in the atmosphere [280, page 243; 281, section 5; 283, page 2; 284, section 1; 1364, using table 8.A.1 on pages 731 - 738 of 1150]. Once CO2 and methane emissions cease, warming from increased CO2 persists longer than warming from increased methane [280, figure 3 on page 46; 1972, figure 2] (see figure 5 below).
  4. Methane levels, and methane's impact energy balance, have begun leveling off, while CO2 levels and impact continue to increase (see figure 5 below) [280, figure 3; 282, figures 2, 6, and 7; 284, figure 1; 1150, figure 8.6 on page 677; 1399, figure 3; 1400, figure 11; 1478]. The rate of methane increase, however, picked up again after 2008 [1400, figure 11; 1407 - 1409; 1478; 1837].
  5. Methane ends up being responsible for a minority of the anthropogenic impact on energy balance [280, pages 46 and 47; 282, page 618; 283, pages 29 and 30; 1150, figure 8.6 on page 677; 1399, figure 3 and section 5; 1400, page 2073; 1754, figure 1a; 1837], with CO2 making up the majority [280, pages 46 and 47; 282, page 618; 1150, figure 8.6 on page 677 and figure 8.18 on page 699; 1399, figure 3 and section 5; 1400, page 2073; 1754, figure 1a; 1837] (see figures 5 and 24 below). 

The following figure illustrates the last point for methane (CH4), CO2, and other greenhouse gases [280, figure 3; 1150, figure 8.6 on page 677; 1837] (in section 2.2 I discussed the "radiative forcing" mentioned on the graph's y-axis):

Figure 5: Radiative forcing from different long-lived greenhouse gases up to 2008, with post-2008 projections under different scenarios for man-made emissions of these gases. The red line includes all the depicted long-lived greenhouse gases, with the exception of CO2, while the black line includes CO2. The y-axis on the top-right indicates how much CO2 (in ppm or "parts per million) would be needed to produce that equivalent amount of radiative forcing. The two lighter lines for line d represent the uncertainty for that emissions scenario; a similar point applies to the lighter lines for the "80% cut" red line [280, figure 3].
These CO2, methane, and N2O trends were updated in a subsequent 2016 paper, with CO2 still making up the vast majority of the radiative forcing [1399, figure 3].
Acronyms: LLGHGs, long-lived greenhouses gases; CO2, carbon dioxide; CH4, methane; ODSs, ozone-depleting substances; N2O, nitrous oxide; HFCs, hydrofluorocarbons.
Emissions scenariosConst.: constant emissions at 2008 levels;  80% cut : 80% emissions reduction phased in gradually from 2009 to 2050, and then held constant at that level post-2050.
Lines a, b, c, and da : constant emissions for CO2 and non-CO2 LLGHGs;  b : constant CO2 emissions and 80% cut for non-CO2 LLGHGs;  c : 80% cut for CO2 emissions and constant non-CO2 LLGHG emissions;  d : 80% cut for both CO2 and non-CO2 LLGHG emissions [280, figure 3].

Figure 5 excludes water vapor, another greenhouse gas [169; 175; 179 - 182; 1604] that, like methane, serves as an important contrast to CO2. CO2 absorbs energy at wavelengths missed by water vapor; this helps explain why CO2 can contribute to global warming even in the presence of water vapor [138; 139; 146 - 148; 151, page 37; 2010]. Furthermore, water vapor is a condensing greenhouse gas that condenses into liquid water at colder atmospheric temperatures [182; 286; 287; 1150, FAQ 8.1 on pages 666 and 667; 1418, section 7.3.3; 1419, page 80; 1604]. This makes water vapor very responsive to atmospheric temperature changes, and thus very poor at driving up long-term temperature to high levels in Earth's current climate [182; 287; 1150, FAQ 8.1 on pages 666 and 667; 1604]. So water vapor is not a long-lived greenhouse gas and thus was not included in figure 5.

CO2, in contrast, is a non-condensing greenhouse gas that does not condense at the temperatures and pressures normally seen in the atmosphere. This allows CO2 to accumulate in the presence of short-term atmospheric temperature fluctuations. CO2 therefore has a longer atmospheric residence time than does water vapor [182; 286; 287; 1150, FAQ 8.1 on pages 666 and 667; 1418, section 7.3.3; 1419, page 80; 1604]. So in contrast to water vapor, CO2 can drive temperatures up in the long-term [11; 15; 182; 287; 447; 1150, FAQ 8.1 on pages 666 and 667; 1604]. Moreover, water vapor levels sharply decrease with increasing height in the lower atmosphere (troposphere), while CO2 levels remain more uniform with increasing tropospheric height. Thus CO2 can exert a relatively larger greenhouse effect in the upper troposphere, even if water vapor levels remain relatively larger in the lower troposphere [151, page 37; 1418, section 7.3.3; 1419, page 80] (I elaborated on the greenhouse effect in section 2.2).

As increased CO2 warms the atmosphere, atmospheric water vapor levels should increase in the warming air [169; 177; 178; 180; 1058] since warmer air can hold more water vapor [169; 177; 178; 1050; 1058]. And since water vapor acts a greenhouse gas that causes warming, increased water vapor should act as a fast, positive feedback that amplifies the warming caused by CO2 [169; 175; 179 - 182; 688; 1058; 1604; 2010, paragraph 25 and section 3.1], as I discussed in section 2.2. Scientific evidence confirms that increasing water vapor acted as a positive feedback that amplified warming [170; 200; 205 - 212; 1054; 1261]. Water vapor levels increased in conjunction with warming [173; 174; 181; 205; 206; 208; 210 - 212; 229; 288 - 299; 1058; 1071; 1525, figure 1; 1581], with much of the increase occurring in response to man-made global warming caused by increased CO2 [205; 208; 294; 295; 1071]. Thus water vapor amplifies CO2-induced warming instead of driving it, as expected of a condensing greenhouse gas amplifying the long-term effect of a non-condensing greenhouse gas.

So comparing and contrasting CO2 with other gases, via analogy, lends credence to the idea that CO2 causes longer-term warming.  Furthermore, the general mechanism of CO2-induced warming makes sense in comparison to other factors that cause warming. The mechanism also makes sense in comparison to other examples of how decreasing the output of a factor X out of (and/or increasing input of X into) a system can increase the levels of X in the system.


Section 2.4: Experimental evidence


Much of the public does not accept [28; 300, figure 2; 301 - 303; 304, table 2; 305; 306, page 30] the evidence-based [27; 309 - 312; 314; 941; 1944, chapter 2] scientific consensus [27; 28; 309 - 313; 941; 1944, chapter 2] on genetically-modified (GM) food; they also distrust scientists on the topic of GM products [304, table 2; 307; 308, table 3; 313]. Yet study after study failed to find evidence that GM crops posed a significant safety risk [27; 309 - 312; 314; 941; 1944, chapter 2]. Furthermore, the few experimental studies that showed otherwise were plagued by serious problems, including basic statistical errors [314; 661; 662; 919; 920]. So experimental evidence argues against the idea that GM crops cause damage to human health (I discuss an anti-GM-food study further in section 2.6).

In contrast, experimental evidence supports the causal link between CO2 and warming. For instance, experimental results show that CO2 absorbs and emits radiation in accordance with the evidence-based mechanism discussed in section 2.2 [146; 315; 1591]; thus the laboratory data confirms the central mechanism via which CO2 causes warming. These laboratory results also match non-laboratory observations from Earth [137, from 9:13 to 10:28; 138 - 141; 145; 149; 151, page 36; 1051; 1164; 1269; 1426; 1529; 1530; 1832; 1833; 2024; 2025; 2065], Venus, Mars, and other astronomical bodies [137, from 9:13 to 10:28; 151, page 36; 316; 318 - 320]. 

Of course, one cannot run a laboratory experiment including all relevant aspects of CO2-induced warming from section 2.2, since a laboratory setup will lack clouds, a lapse rate in which temperature sharply decreases with increasing atmospheric height, a long enough time-frame for multi-decadal temperature changes to occur, etc. Similarly, one cannot run a laboratory experiment showing all the causal factors impacting tens of thousands of years of human evolution, billions of years of star formation, etc. But scientists can still gather evidence on these topics [830; 862, table 4; 863 - 871; 1363] despite their inability to run laboratory experiments that encapsulate them from beginning to end, just as scientists can gather evidence on CO2-induced warming without running a laboratory experiment that encapsulates it from beginning to end. For instance, scientists can use natural experiments in which they examine results from outside of controlled settings such as a laboratory; such research occurred for GM products and policies [1977, citing 1978; 1979; 1980, citing 1981; 1982; 1983], among other topics [1984 - 1989].

One could view CO2 increases in the distant past and recent past as natural experiments on the causal relationship between CO2 and warming, as noted by both mainstream climate scientists and myth proponents [ex: 137, from 5:00 to 5:33; 688; 1171, page 13; 1398; 1774; 1827]; I discuss this more in sections 2.5, 2.9, and 2.10. Ruddiman, for instance, presents evidence that human agricultural and land use practices increased CO2 and methane levels in a way that mitigated global cooling [2026 - 2033]. Natural experiments on CO2-induced climate change in the distant past help guide predictions of current industrial-era and future CO2-induced climate change [11; 448 - 450; 669; 1069; 1829; 1859; 1965; 2108], which is itself another natural experiment [ex: 137, from 5:00 to 5:33; 688; 1171, page 13; 1774; 1827]. Back in the 1890s, for example, Svante Arrhenius argued that increases in atmospheric CO2 levels would result in large amounts of warming [133, page 1328; 134; 135, page 68; 137, from 5:40 to 7:46; 371, figure 2; 1171, page 11; 1182, section on "The carbon dioxide greenhouse effect"; 1839], as per the high climate sensitivity discussed in sections 2.5 and 2.7. These high estimates of greenhouse-gas-induced warming continued through the 1930s and 1950s with the work of scientists such as Hulburt [137, from 15:56 to 16:20; 371, figure 2; 1182, section on "The carbon dioxide greenhouse effect"; 2002], Callendar [135, page 69; 137, from 19:04 to 21:59; 371, figure 2; 1171, page 11; 1182, section on "The carbon dioxide greenhouse effect"; 1578, from 13:03 to 15:20; 1839; 1999; 2000], and Plass [135, page 70; 137, from 22:06 to 22:52; 371, figure 2; 1171, page 12; 1182, section on "The carbon dioxide greenhouse effect"; 1999, section 4; 2001], as per figure 7 below in section 2.5. Various members of the public also became cognizant of the risk of global warming [749; 1998; 2003, citing 2004; 2005, as per 2006; 2007, citing 2008 (2008, pages 121 and 122); 2009; 2056 and 2057, citing 2058, pages 56 - 58].

By the 1960s and 1970s, many more scientists were predicting imminent global warming than were predicting global cooling, as reflected in the peer-reviewed literature [133; 135, page 72, citing 133; 1997, figure 24.7 in section 24.4.3, citing 133]. And beginning in at least the 1970s, scientists used climate models to predict how much warming would result from a given increase in CO2, or from a given increase in radiative forcing from CO2 (see section 2.2 for further discussion of radiative forcing). Subsequent temperature trends of longer than a decade largely matched the predicted relationship between CO2-induced radiative forcing and CO2-induced warming, along with matching the predicted regional pattern of warming, as shown in academic [1347; 1767; 1769 - 1773; 1838, pages 4 and 57 - 59; 1839; 1872; 2114 (with 2060 and 1759)] and non-academic sources [1759 - 1766; 1786; 1835; 1911; 1912; 2007]. This contrasts with inaccurate temperature trend predictions from myth proponents and other contrarians, as discussed in:

The 1990 First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC [1990]) provides a good example of accurately predicted warming; I discuss these in more detail in "Myth: The IPCC's 1990 Report Over-estimated Greenhouse-gas-induced Global Warming", and the discussion below will reference figures from that blogpost. In brief: the IPCC offered a business-as-usual scenario (BaU, also known as "scenario A") in which they projected post-1990 atmospheric increases for six greenhouse gases, including CO2, in response to human emission of these gases. The IPCC also offered three other scenarios in which humans emitted less greenhouse gases, and thus atmospheric greenhouse gas levels rose less than in BaU. These were known as scenarios B, C, and D [1990, pages xix, xx, xxii, xxiii, 331, 333, 335, and 336; 1991, page 14 and table 2.8 on pages 26 - 29, cited by 28 on pages 331 and 337], as per figures 8 to 13 of "Myth: The IPCC's 1990". The IPCC 1990 report then stated how much energy increase, a.k.a. radiative forcing, would occur in response to the post-1990 greenhouse gas increases in each of these scenarios [1990, figure 6 on page xx, figure 2.4 on page 56, and figure A.6 on page 335], along with how much warming would result from this forcing [1990, figure 8 on page xxii and figure A.9 on page 336] (figures 1 and 2 of "Myth: The IPCC's 1990") and how much sea level rise would result from that warming [1990, page xi, figure 12 on page 30, figure 14 on page xxxi, and figure A.12 on page 337].

Observed post-1990 warming and greenhouse-gas-induced radiative forcing followed scenario B, as per figures 4 and 5 of "Myth: The IPCC's 1990". Thus the IPCC accurately predicted the ratio of observed warming vs. radiative forcing; i.e. the IPCC accurately represented the shorter-term climate sensitivity discussed in sections 2.5 and 2.7. Observed sea level rise [1455; 1456; 1788, page S84; 1992; 1993; 1994, section 1.3.4.1 on page 136 and figure 1.10 on page 137; 1995] also matched scenario B [1990, page xi, figure 12 on page 30, figure 14 on page xxxi, and figure A.12 on page 337] reasonably well. These accurate predictions become all the more impressive when one recognizes that the IPCC's projections focused on just greenhouse gas increases [1990, pages xi, xviii - xxiii, 190, and 331 - 336]; they did not include changes in solar output, volcanic eruptions, aerosols, etc. [1990, page 64; 1996, page 13]. So the IPCC correctly predicted the post-1990 longer-term, multi-decadal warming trend by focusing on just greenhouse gas increases. This strongly supports the idea that greenhouse gas increases caused most of the recent global warming. Figure 6 below illustrates point:


Figure 6: 1970 - 2017 projection from the 1990 First Assessment Report (FAR [51]) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, compared with observational analyses on (top) a relative temperature vs. time basis, and (bottom) a relative temperature vs. radiative forcing basis. Temperature and radiative forcing are relative to a 1970 - 1989 baseline. The dashed, vertical grey line in the top panel depicts the start of the future projection period. The thick black lines in the top and bottom panels represent the average projection from the IPCC's business-as-usual scenario, while the dashed black lines represent the upper and lower bounds. The blue probability distribution in the bottom panel illustrates various combinations of observational analyses of warming vs. estimates of radiative forcing, with the dashed blue lines representing the upper and lower bounds of this ratio. So a greater, steeper slope in the bottom panel means larger climate sensitivity [1767, supplemental figure S6].

FAR's business-as-usual (BaU, also known as "scenario A") scenario over-estimates the observed radiative forcing increase, since it over-estimates how much greenhouse gases levels increased and thus how much greenhouse-gas-induced warming occurred. Hence the blue observational lines falling on the lower end of the BaU projection range in the top panel. This contrasts with FAR's scenario B, which better matches observed post-1990 greenhouse gas increases, thus better representing the observed radiative forcing increase and temperature increase, as per figures 4, 5, and 8 to 13 of "Myth: The IPCC's 1990 Report Over-estimated Greenhouse-gas-induced Global Warming". The bottom panel accounts for BaU's discrepancy in radiative forcing, showing that BaU accurately represents warming per unit of radiative forcing. BaU [1767; 1769] and scenario B therefore both correctly estimate the shorter-term climate sensitivity discussed in sections 2.5 and 2.7.

So the natural experiment of industrial, human-made increases in greenhouse gases [579, page 2; 580; 581; 584; 1062; 1093; 1406; 1854] provides further evidence that greenhouse gas increases (primarily CO2) caused most of the recent global warming, as per figure 6 above, along with figures 22, 23, and 25 below. The heavily-cited [1803; 1804] climate scientist Veerabhadran Ramanathan put the point rather well in a 1988 paper:

"The greenhouse theory of climate change: A test by an inadvertent global experiment
[...]
Since the dawn of the industrial era, the atmospheric concentrations of several radiatively active gases have been increasing as a result of human activities. The radiative heating from this inadvertent experiment has driven the climate system out of equilibrium with the incoming solar energy. According to the greenhouse theory of climate change, the climate system will be restored to equilibrium by a warming of the surface-troposphere system and a cooling of the stratosphere. The predicted changes, during the next few decades, could far exceed natural climate variations in historical times. Hence, the greenhouse theory of climate change has reached the crucial stage of verification. Surface warming as large as that predicted by models would be unprecedented during an interglacial period such as the present. The theory, its scope for verification, and the emerging complexities of the climate feedback mechanisms are discussed [688, page 293]."

The predicted rapid [593, page 9; 735, page 2] rate of interglacial surface warming [14; 735, page 2; 995; 1017, figures 2A and 2B; 1057; 1750, figure 4a, as depicted in 1816], combined with bulk tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, occurred [193; 228; 232; 233; 660, pages 8, 9, 12, and 13; 682; 685; 686; 694; 695; 698 - 700; 702; 713; 714; 716; 719 - 725; 743; 1053; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1152; 1788, pages S19 and S20], as I discuss in sections 2.5 and 2.9, respectively. Moreover, earlier in this section I cited evidence of radiative heating from greenhouse gases, consistent with Ramanathan's above statement, along with section 2.2's discussion of evidence on various climate feedbacks. Increased CO2 also continues to drive a disequilibrium, or energy imbalance [37; 142 - 144; 1221], that warms the Earth [51; 142 - 144; 1081; 1128; 1161; 1221; 1378; 1575; 1801; 1847; 1872; 1924; 1957; 1958; 2022, figure 3b; 2023], as per section 2.2. Thus in the decades since Ramanathan's 1988 paper, the natural experiment of man-made, industrial-era greenhouse gas increases [579, page 2; 580; 581; 584; 1062; 1093; 1406; 1854] continues to show that increased CO2 caused most of the recent global warming.


Section 2.5: Strength


Smoking dramatically increases lung cancer risk [326 - 328], as noted by Bradford Hill [99, pages 7 - 8] and other scientists for many decades, dating back to at least 1912 [1167 - 1170]. The increase in cancer risk is so large that it is unlikely to be due to chance. Conversely, second-hand smoking results in more moderate increases in health risks [323 - 325; 328 - 330; 333], though legislation enforcing smoke-free zones resulted in large benefits for human health, even for those who did not smoke [321; 322; 951; 1342 - 1346]. This legislation serves as a natural experiment, providing further evidence of the causal link between second-hand smoke and negative health effects, as per section 2.4.

A number of critics latched onto the more moderate health risks of second-hand smoking, in order to manufacture false doubt about these risks [272; 273; 332; 333; 336, page 251; 338 - 345; 1340; 1417; 1952; 1953; 1954, page 66]. These critics include people who also object to the mainstream science on CO2-induced, man-made global warming [1341], such as Fred Singer [331, page 3.9; 341; 1126, pages 106 - 108], Fred Seitz [331, page 3.9; 336, page 251; 341; 1417], Joseph Bast [342 - 344], John Brignell [345; 346], Michael Crichton [1340; on climate: 2045; 2046], and Richard Lindzen [338 - 340]. For instance, Lindzen parroted [338; 339] the tobacco industry's [1084; 1087, section IX] distortions of a report [1085; 1086; 1087, section IX], even though this report presented evidence showing the health risks of second-hand smoking [1084 - 1086; 1087, section IX; 1088].

(Lindzen even reportedly extended his claims from second-smoking to smoking, underplaying the risk smoking poses to one's health, even as he continued smoking [340]. US Vice President Mike Pence's also infamously, and falsely [1880 - 1884], claimed that smoking doesn't kill [384, from 4:08 to 4:43; 651; 652]. Along the same lines, Bast used the {supposed} claims of unnamed "experts" to defend the false [1885 - 1888] idea that moderate smoking does not raise one's risk of lung cancer and is not deadly [343; 344; 1910]. When confronted on this, Bast initially acted as if he never made the claim, but eventually admitted to it once presented with clear evidence of what he wrote [344; 1910].
Thus Bast resorted to the standard denialist tactics of manufacturing false doubt and appealing to fake experts [270 - 273; 276; 331]. That is not surprising since Bast leads the tobacco-industry-funded [342; 1903, page 244; 1904 - 1906; 1914] front group [1904; 1917; 1918], the Heartland Institute. The fossil fuel industry also funded the Heartland Institute [342; 1905; 1907 - 1909; 1913; 1915], and, unsurprisingly, Heartland extended Bast's tactics [342 - 344] on smoking-related science to anthropogenic-climate-change-related science. For example, Heartland published "Why Scientists Disagree about Global Warming: The NIPCC Report on Scientific Consensus" [1891] and hosted meetings at which various climate science contrarians presented, including the myth proponents William Happer [1893], Roy Spencer [1889], S. Fred Singer [1894], Craig Idso [1889] {who also received funding from the Heartland Institute [1915; 1916, page 14]}, Robert Carter [1895], Tim Ball [1889], Don Easterbrook [1897], Patrick Moore [666, from 13:44 to 13:56; 1892], and Christopher Monckton [1889]. Other presenters included Richard Lindzen [1889], Willie Soon [1896], Anthony Watts [1889] {who is also a Heartland Institute Fellow [1890], authored debunked [1931 - 1940] work Heartland then disseminated [1930], and founded the popular contrarian blog WattsUpWithThat [1928; 1929]}, Nir Shaviv [1889], Patrick Michaels [1889], Ross McKitrick [1898], Steven McIntyre [1899], David Legates [1889], Nils-Axel Mörner [1900], Garth Paltridge [1902], Joe Bastardi [1889], Tony Heller [1901], and Benny Peiser [1889].)

Quite a bit of overlap exists between the tactics used by critics of the science on smoking vs. tactics used by critics of the science on CO2-induced warming. Thus these forms of science denialism are often compared [270 - 273; 275; 277; 331; 334; 335; 336, page 251; 337; 341; 970; 1190; 1266; 1811]. The following discussion illustrates this point, in the context of figuring out causes (etiology) for effects that may have multiple contributing causes:

"Arguments about the complex, multifactorial aetiology of [coronary heart disease] and cancer have long been used by the tobacco industry to dispute the epidemiological and other evidence. This approach to the evidence has also been documented in other industries, and the use of double standards in demands for evidence is a characteristic of many other fields [...]. Demands for perfect evidence, while misrepresenting the existing evidence, can also be observed in climate change denialism [citations removed] [970]."

(To put this quote another way: the tobacco industry argued that since multiple causes contribute to cancer, it was unclear whether smoking caused cancer. So the tobacco industry demanded evidence from a perfect scenario in which smoking was the only causal factor at work. Many critics of mainstream climate make an analogous argument by saying that since multiple factors affect long-term temperature trends, it remains unclear whether CO2 levels affect long-term temperature trends. They then demand evidence from a perfect scenario in which CO2 is the only causal factor at work. I address the critics' child-like mistake in section 2.10.)

Just as critics objected that second-hand smoking [272; 273; 332; 333; 336, page 251; 338 - 345] and moderate smoking [343; 344; 1910], at best, only slightly increased health risks , one might expect these critics to also claim that CO2, at best, only caused slight warming. So according to this line of criticism, strength remains low for the relationship between second-hand smoking vs. health risk relationship, and for the relationship between CO2 vs. warming. Richard Lindzen makes just this sort of objection when he argues that climate sensitivity is low [137, from 34:40 to 36:32, and 37:10 to 39:12; 347; 348].

Climate sensitivity states how much warming results from CO2's radiative forcing [167; 349; 1578] (see sections 2.2 and 2.3 for further discussion of radiative forcing). The positive feedbacks from sections 2.2 and 2.8 increase climate sensitivity, while negative feedbacks limit climate sensitivity [167; 168; 437]. Equilibrium climate sensitivity, ECS, is climate sensitivity for up to the point at which Earth reaches an equilibrium state where Earth releases as much energy as it takes in, and fast feedbacks (as opposed to slower acting feedbacks) have exerted their full effect [167; 349; 371; 1069]. Transient climate sensitivity, TCS or TCR, is Earth's climate sensitivity over a shorter period of time, before Earth reaches equilibrium [167; 349; 371].

Different scientists give different definitions for forms of climate sensitivity [11; 1664], but the aforementioned definitions should suffice for this blogpost. Current industrial-era global warming is less than ECS, because of thermal inertia of the oceans [1221; 1392 - 1396; 1594, page 585; 1664] and the fact that Earth has yet to reach an equilibrium state [367, section 5.2 on page 1373; 1221; 1397, sections 2.3 and 2.4 on pages 5 - 6; 1664] in which an energy balance has been achieved [37; 142 - 144; 148; 688; 918, chapter 4; 1221], as per section 2.2. So there is more warming to come [1221; 1392 - 1396; 1614, pages 1104 and 1106; 1664], especially in the deeper ocean [143; 755; 1148; 1339; 1543 - 1545]; in section 2.10, I briefly discuss the relationship between deeper ocean warming and climate sensitivity. Figure 4 depicts how much the feedbacks from section 2.2 contribute to climate sensitivity.

Scientists estimate climate sensitivity in a number of ways [11; 17 - 19; 168; 218; 349 - 363; 1578, from 18:02 to 19:10, 47:06 to 47:50; 1868], such as examining how much warming occurred with CO2 increases in the distant past [11; 17 - 19]. Scientists can then use these climate sensitivity estimates to determine how much of the recent global warming was caused by increased CO2 levels. The vast majority of the climate sensitivity estimates imply that CO2 caused most of the recent global warming [ex: 51, paragraph 3; further examples below]; thus these studies imply a large enough strength for the causal relationship between CO2 and warming. For instance, even deeply flawed studies with low climate sensitivity estimates involved CO2-induced warming being roughly equivalent to the observed warming trend since the late 19th century [353; 364; 365, section 2.4.2 on page 1381] (I discuss this more in section 3.4 of "John Christy Fails to Show that Climate Models Exaggerate CO2-induced Warming" and in "Christopher Monckton and Projecting Future Global Warming, Part 1"). 

So for CO2 to have not caused most of the global warming that occurred since the late 19th century, one would need an ECS value substantially lower than 1.0°C (this change of 1.0°C is equivalent to a change of 1.0K). Such a value would lie outside the range supported by the vast majority of studies, as shown below:



Figure 7: Published estimates of ECS drawn from different methods. Different colors represent different studies. Dots mark means, medians, or best estimates; colored bars designate different percentile ranges. The gray range displays the 1.5°C to 4.5°C range [371, figures 2 and 3] within which the ECS is ‘likely’ to lie (probability >66% [372, table 1.2 on page 142]), as assessed by the IPCC [373, page 871]. The gray vertical lines indicate a value of 1°C below which ECS is ‘extremely unlikely’ to be (<5% [372, table 1.2 on page 142]), and a value of 6°C above which ECS is ‘very
unlikely’ (<10% [372, table 1.2 on page 142]) to be [373, page 871], according to the IPCC [371, figures 2 and 3].
An alternative, unpublished depiction of recent climate sensitivity estimates is also available [1410; 1531].

Lewis and Curry 2015 [353; 364], Lewis and Curry 2018 [861; 2055], Monckton et al. 2015 [365, section 2.4.2 on page 1381], and Specht et al. 2016 [1391, page 8] will be of little use to myth proponents, since those papers attribute most of the recent warming to CO2, consistent with Curry's co-authored research [1368, paragraph 29 of section 6]. Even Roy Spencer, a contrarian defender of low climate sensitivity work [170, section 1; 367, section 6 on page 1375; 935], admits to humans causing most of the post-1950s, while advocating [2055] Lewis and Curry 2018's low climate sensitivity estimate [861]. Monckton et al. [365, figure 4; 1923, figure 6] also under-estimate warming by about a factor of two, as per "Myth: The IPCC's 1990 Report Over-estimated Greenhouse-gas-induced Global Warming"; their work suffers from other flaws discussed in "Christopher Monckton and Projecting Future Global Warming, Part 1". A critic might cite other outlier, low climate sensitivity estimates in figure 7 in order to argue that CO2 did not cause most of the recent global warming. But this would amount to unjustified cherry-picking that excludes higher sensitivity studies [ex: 1663; 1859; 1869], such as a review that was not listed in figure 7 [11]. As noted by this review:

"The response of temperature to CO2 change (climate sensitivity) in the geologic past may help inform future climate predictions. Proxies for CO2 and temperature generally imply high climate sensitivities: =3 K per CO2 doubling during ice-free times (fast-feedback sensitivity) and =6 K during times with land ice (Earth-system sensitivity). Climate models commonly underpredict the magnitude of climate change and have fast-feedback sensitivities close to 3 K. A better characterization of feedbacks in warm worlds raises climate sensitivity to values more in line with proxies and produces climate simulations that better fit geologic evidence [11]."

Consistent with this result, a number of other studies showed that better characterization of feedbacks and other climate processes increased climate-model-based sensitivity estimates, as shown in figure 7 and other research [1379; 1430; 1519]. A more recent 2018 review made a similar point, using data on climate in the distant past (paleoclimate) to estimate the effects of CO2-induced warming, climate sensitivity, and how much climate models under-estimate climate sensitivity:

"Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise [1069]."

Furthermore, scientists revealed serious flaws in low sensitivity studies [201; 354; 355; 357 - 361; 367, page 1375; 368 - 370; 371, page 3; 1082]. Correcting these flaws tends to increase the corresponding climate sensitivity estimates [201; 354; 355; 357 - 361; 367; 368; 370; 371, page 3; 1082; 1186], which provides a clear justification for rejecting these low sensitivity studies. 

For instance, take Specht et al. 2016. Specht et al. 2016 claims that man-made CO2 emissions warmed Earth by 0.4K from 1860 - 1990 [1391, pages 2 and 8]. So doubling CO2 levels should cause more than 0.4K of warming; after all, from 1860 to 1990 CO2 levels increased from ~285 parts per million (ppm) to ~355ppm [20; 121, page 3; 482; 492, figure 1; 592, figure 2; 1062, figure 6; 1400, figures 6, 8, and 9], which is much less than a doubling of CO2. Consistent with this, Specht et al. 2016 predicts more future warming [1391, pages 1 and 8], as atmospheric CO2 comes closer to doubling 1860 CO2 levels.

Specht et al. 2016 also notes that CO2-induced warming resulted in feedbacks (which Specht et al. 2016 calls "side effects [1391, pages 2 and 8]") that caused ~1K of post-1860 warming [1391, page 8]. Thus Specht et al. 2016 entails that doubling CO2 would result in much more than 1K of warming, despite figure 7 attributing an ECS estimate of ~0.4K to Specht et al. 2016. 0.4K warming more likely represents Specht et al. 2016's estimate of the amount of warming caused by a CO2 increase from 285ppm to 355ppm, without taking feedbacks into account and before equilibrium is reached.

As with Specht et al. 2016, Idso 1998 and Loehle 2015 are two other lower climate sensitivity articles from figure 7. Idso 1998 argues that doubling CO2 levels from 300ppm to 600ppm results in no more than ~0.45K of warming, after feedbacks take effect [1398]. That is much lower than Specht et al. 2016's feedback-based estimate [1359, pages 2 and 8] and flies in the face of the fact that Earth warmed by around three times that amount from 1910 to 2017 (see figures 21, 22, and 23), as CO2 rose from ~300ppm [20; 121, page 3; 482; 492, figure 1; 592, figure 2; 1062, figure 6; 1400, figures 6, 8, and 9] to ~405ppm [117; 1406; 1408; 1409; 1432; 1620; 1837; 2096]. And there is more warming to come [1614, pages 1104 and 1106; 1664], because of thermal inertia [1221; 1392 - 1396; 1594, page 585; 1664] and Earth not yet reaching an equilibrium state [367, section 5.2 on page 1373; 1221; 1397, sections 2.3 and 2.4 on pages 5 - 6; 1664] in which an energy balance has been achieved [37; 142 - 144; 148; 688; 918, chapter 4; 1221], as I mentioned earlier in this section. Idso 1998 [1398, page 74], and Idso's earlier work from 1988 [984], also use an unsound, mechanism-free appeal to a dormitive virtue in order to avoid attributing industrial-era warming to CO2, as I discussed in section 2.2. So Idso 1998 [1398] is an outdated analysis that under-estimates CO2-induced warming and thus climate sensitivity.

While Idso 1998 [1398, page 74] appeals to a mechanism-free dormitive virtue in order to argue for low climate sensitivity, Loehle 2015 instead achieves a low climate sensitivity, in part, by subtracting out warming that (supposedly) was caused by an ocean cycle known as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation or the AMO [1389]. But this subtraction likely over-estimates the warming impact of AMO, as I discuss in section 2.10 and the caption for figure 20 [51; 66; 71; 900; 910 - 913; 1078; 1101; 1357]. Thus Loehle 2015 likely under-estimates climate sensitivity.

Before authoring Loehle 2015, Craig Loehle authored another low climate sensitivity study: Loehle 2014 from figure 7. Loehle 2014 [1390] commits mistakes that were corrected in Cawley et al. 2015 [359; 360], undermining Loehle 2014's low estimate (see figure 7). Moreover, Loehle 2014 [1390] depends [1390] on a model from Loehle and Scafetta [1382] that lacks a sound basis in physics and statistics [937]. This model forecasts post-2000 cooling [1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82], even though CO2-induced warming occurred over that period, as I discuss in section 2.5, "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades", "Myth: El Niño Caused Post-1997 Global Warming", and section 2.1 of "Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable". Loehle 2014 therefore relies on an under-estimate of CO2-induced warming, and thus very likely under-estimates climate sensitivity. This is consistent with Loehle's history of under-estimating warming [1388, figure 6], such as when Loehle erroneously excluded recent warming from an analysis he performed [1035; 1039].

Besides Loehle 2014 [1390], a number of other low sensitivity studies employ energy budget models [317; 351; 356; 369; 371, page 3; 861; 1082], one model-based approach for estimating climate sensitivity. Four such studies from figure 7 are Forster and Gregory 2006 [351, section 2; 1412], Lewis and Curry 2015 [353], Monckton et al. 2015 [365], and Bates 2016 [1411]. One can object to these energy-budget-model-based climate sensitivity estimates, without violating basic physics and without rejecting observational analyses [167; 168; 351, section 2; 363; 368 - 370; 371, page 3; 1186]. So these model-based estimates assume more than just basic physics [351, section 2; 371, page 3], as admitted by Forster, a defender of energy-budget-model-based estimates [351, section 2] (though more recently, Forster argued against ECS estimates below 2K [1579; similar work in 1640]). In comparison to other methods of estimating climate sensitivity, energy budget models often generate lower estimates [317; 354; 369; 371, page 3; 861; 904; 1858] due to a number of limitations [351, section 2; 354 - 361; 363; 367 - 370; 371, page 3; 1082; 1186 - 1188; 1385; 1578, from 18:02 to 47:50; 1579; 1641; 1660; 1858; 1945; 2049 - 2051]. These limitations include under-estimating actual rates of historical warming [354; 371, page 3], inaccurately representing the influence of sulfate aerosols on Earth's temperature [355; 357; 1359; 1857], and assuming that climate sensitivity for future CO2-induced warming is equivalent to climate sensitivity over the past century or so [167; 168; 351, section 2; 363; 368 - 370; 371, page 3; 1186 - 1188; 1385; 1578, from 18:02 to 47:50; 1641; 1660; 1870].

And as previously noted, addressing these errors results in higher estimates of climate sensitivity [354; 355; 357 - 361; 367; 368; 370; 371, page 3; 1082; 1186; 1359; 1385; 1578, from 18:02 to 47:50; 1579; 1660; 1857; 1858; 1870; 2049 - 2051] that are closer to paleoclimate estimates (paleoclimate estimates that use data covering time-periods longer [11; 371, figure 3; 1069; 1385; 1506; 1663; 1859; 1861; 1862; 1867; 1869] than the past century or so of observations used in energy-budget-model-based estimates [167; 168; 317; 351, section 2; 354 - 361; 363; 367 - 370; 371, page 3; 1186 - 1188; 1385]). In a 2018 paper, Lewis and Curry attempt to address this issue by cherry-picking paleoclimate results for a period of time known as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), while ignoring other paleoclimate data [861, section 7e]. Yet the papers and authors [187; 363; 1352; 1353] Lewis+Curry cite [861, section 7e] on the LGM either critique [1353, pages 374 - 375] Lewis+Curry's low, energy-budget-model-based ECS estimate of ~1.8K [861, section 7e], or defend a higher ECS estimate [187; 363, page 3; 1352], along with other research yielding higher climate sensitivity estimates from data on glacial cycles [17; 18 (to be read with 2104 - 2106); 1069; 1859; 1861; 1862; 1869]. So Lewis+Curry's sources undermine their low ECS estimate. A subsequent paper [1945] pointed out additional flaws in Lewis+Curry's 2018 paper [861], with a counter-response from Lewis-+Curry [1946].

Lewis also co-authored another 2018 paper, Lewis+Grünwald [1866], examining other paleoclimate estimates from the IPCC's 2013 Fifth Assessment Report [372]. He used that evidence to argue for a median ECS estimate of ~1.9K, but now with a wider uncertainty range that includes higher climate sensitivity values [1866] than in Lewis+Curry 2018 [861] (1.1K–4.05K for Lewis+Grünwald [1866] vs. 1.2K–3.1K for Lewis+Curry 2018 [861]). His Lewis+Grünwald estimate will likely need to increase even more, if and when he addresses more recent paleoclimate studies with higher sensitivity estimates and which were not included [11; 371, figure 3; 1069; 1663; 1859; 1861; 1862; 1867] in the IPCC's 2013 report [372].

In a more recent presentation, Lewis defends low climate sensitivity by claiming that climate models with high sensitivity over-estimate post-1979 warming [1768, from 31:07 to 33:04]. But in reality, the difference between the model-based projections and observational analyses is due more to errors in inputted forcings, differences in coverage between the observational analyses vs. the model-based projections, etc., not model error with respect to over-estimating climate sensitivity, as covered in sections 2.1 and 2.2 of "Myth: Santer et al. Show that Climate Models are Very Flawed". Once one accounts for these issues, the models accurately represent recent warming [354, figure 1; 884, figure 3; 1347, figure 3; 1349, figure 1b; 1350, figure 5; 1588, figure 7; 1838, page 57; 2114 (with 2060 and 1759)], without one having to reduce the models' climate sensitivity. These results further rebut Lewis' case for low climate sensitivity.

So if you have ever heard a defender of low climate sensitivity estimates claim that they "showed climate sensitivity was low using observations," then the defender likely used an energy budget model plus observational data [351; 356; 371, page 3; 861], not just observational data. And they likely under-estimated climate sensitivity.

The work of Richard Lindzen, a persistent critic of the mainstream science on CO2-induced warming, provides another example of under-estimating climate sensitivity. Figure 7 shows a low climate sensitivity estimate from Lindzen and Choi in 2009, and another low estimate from Lindzen and Choi in 2011. The 2009 estimate committed, in Lindzen's own words, "stupid mistakes [374]," consistent with Lindzen's long history of offering debunked defenses of low climate sensitivity estimates [137, from 34:40 to 36:32, and 37:10 to 39:12; 170, section 1; 179, section 4; 367, page 1375; 375, pages 7 and 8; 376 - 380; 1578, from 48:16 to 50:55; 1941; 1942]. Lindzen intended [348; 374] the 2011 paper [348] to follow up on, and correct, the 2009 estimate [347]. However, this 2011 paper suffered withering criticism [367, page 1375; 376; 380] and was rebutted by subsequent research [367, page 1375; 380; 1789 (in the same vein as 377); 1871; 1955]. Similar rebuttals arose for the low climate sensitivity work from Roy Spencer [170, section 1; 367, section 6 on page 1375; 935], Craig Loehle [359; 360], and energy-budget-model based estimates [354 - 361; 367; 369; 370; 371, page 3].

(Interestingly, the energy industry may have supported Willie Soon [1040; 1041, page 105; 1042 - 1044; 1203, "Acknowledgements" section; 1204, "Acknowledgements" section on page 81; 1205, page L102; 1206, page 901; 1267, page 2356; 1380; 1834], Spencer [960], Lindzen [960; 962], Judith Curry [2119 (cited by 2120 and 2121); 2124], Patrick Michaels [2061, from 14:19 to 16:11; 2062; 2063], and the myth proponent [89, page 26; 96] Craig Idso [961; 963]. The first four individuals generated spuriously low climate sensitivity estimates {see figure 7 above; Soon co-authored Monckton et al. 2015 [365]}, while Michaels cherry-picked low climate sensitivity estimates [2064]. Craig Idso went even further, by using his blog CO2Science to post a doctored image [1033, from 5:56 to 6:53; 1383] that removed recent warming [1384, figure 3 on page 345]. I discuss both Idso and Michaels further in part A of section 2.4 of "Myth: No Hot Spot Implies Less Global Warming and Support for Lukewarmerism".
Harde also generated a low climate sensitivity estimate [1643] from figure 7, though some of his other work on CO2 has been rebutted [1045; 1046] and was not subject to rigorous peer review [1046; 1374]. Soon's work suffered similar issues as well [936, page 701; 1047; 1048; 1049, from 1:31 to 3:54], and the editor-in-chief of a scientific journal resigned in protest [936, page 701; 1351] over the journal publishing Spencer's deeply flawed [170, section 1; 367, section 6 on page 1375] defense of low climate sensitivity.
Along the same lines, Ollila's 2014 [1621] and 2016 [1622] work on low climate sensitivity {shown in figure 15 below} was published in predatory, likely fake "journals" that were not listed on indices such as the Master Journal List [1623]. The same is true of Harde 2017 [1643] from figure 7 above, along with Loehle 2015 [1389]. And out of the four reviewers for Ollila's 2016 article [1624 - 1628], only one [1627; 1628] provided a detailed review of the paper [1627 - 1629]. This review [1627; 1628] pointed out deep, crippling problems with Ollila's article [1627 - 1629]. Yet the predatory "journal" published Ollila's dubious article anyway [1612]; I discuss further issues with Ollila's work in section 2.7.
But it could just be an interesting coincidence that peer review and funding issues surround the work of many prominent defenders of anomalously low climate sensitivity estimates, though this seems to be a recurring problem among contrarians/denialists [ex: 1802].)

If low climate sensitivity arguments fail, then a myth defender might be tempted to offer an alternative argument based on strength; namely: the magnitude of recent warming has yet to exceed natural variability to an unprecedented level, and thus one cannot ascribe the warming to increased CO2 levels from fossil fuel combustion [95; 978]. But this argument makes no sense, both in climate science and other scientific contexts.

For example, suppose that, on average, a particular city has a mortality rate of 10 deaths per week. There is, however, quite a bit of variability in this trend from week to week, such that on some weeks no one dies, but on other weeks 20 people die. A serial killer then murders one person every two weeks in the city from January to June. These murders would not substantially increase the city's mortality rate; so one would not detect a statistically significant, unprecedented change in the city's mortality rate during the killer's murders vs. before the murders.

But none of this implies that one cannot ascribe the murders to the serial killer. After all, one might have fingerprints, DNA, witnesses, camera footage, and other evidence showing that the serial killer caused the deaths of those people (I discuss this more in the context of forensic science and the "specificity" consideration in section 2.9). Thus the mortality rate and total number of deaths do not need to greatly spike past natural variability, in order for one to show who caused a recent trend in deaths [6; 95; 1358]. Similarly, the warming rate and magnitude of global warming does not need to greatly spike past natural variability, in order for one to show that CO2 caused most of the recent warming.

This does not mean, however, that rates of change are irrelevant. For instance, a dramatic increase in mortality rate that is substantially above past natural variability, might suggest that a cause beyond natural variability is at play, such as a viral epidemic. But though a greatly increased mortality rate can support the hypothesis of a cause beyond natural variability, the greatly increased mortality rate is not required for supporting that hypothesis. Analogously, though greatly increased warming rates [735, page 2; 1010; 1011; 1012, page 1282] can support the hypothesis of a cause for warming beyond natural variability [ex: 735, page 2], the greatly increased warming rate is not required for supporting that hypothesis.

Figure 8 depicts how large the industrial-era global warming rate is relative to other longer-term temperature trends over the past ~2000 years, in accordance with the hockey stick pattern discussed in section 2.7 and presented in figures 12, 13, and 14, among other research [761; 995; 998; 1017; 1018; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409; 1658; 1750, figure 4a, as depicted in 1816; 1752; 1753; 1807] (a related paper also shows how industrial-era warming occurred across the vast majority of the globe at a similar time, in contrast to previous, more localized warming and cooling periods over the past ~2000 years [1748]):


Figure 8: Global surface temperature trend over the past 2000 years back to 1 CE, based on instrumental data (thermometers) and reconstructions from indirect, proxy measurements of temperature [1816; 2011]. The instrumental data extends from 1850 - 2017 [1750, figure 1a]. Each trend covers a period of 51 years, stated in units of °C/century, and ends on the year given on the x-axis. The horizontal lines represent the upper range of pre-industrial (pre-1850) warming rates from reconstructions (solid green line) or calculated by climate models (dashed orange line).
This figure is a simplification [1816; 2011] of a previously published analysis [1750, figure 4a].

Multiproxy analyses confirm the instrumental warming trend [492; 761 - 763; 1172; 1173; 1807; 1831, figure 1c], as do other indirect measures that do not use thermometer data [760; 1173, figure 4; 1503, using 741, as per 742, with the re-analyses from 760 and 1504; 1807, figure 3]. The industrial-era warming rate is also large relative to the past ~10,000 years to ~21,000 years [14; 593, page 9; 735, page 2; 995; 1017, figures 2A and 2B; 1057; 1950]. In the 12 decades from the 1900s to 2010s, Earth's surface warmed by ~1.3°C [1739, figure 1; 1776; 2044, figure 8; 2060; 2066; 2067; 2068 - 2070, generated using 741, as per 742]; ~0.9°C of warming occurred in the 50 years from 1970 - 2019 [1739, figure 1; 1776; 2044, figure 8; 2060; 2066; 2067; 2068 - 2071, generated using 741, as per 742], coinciding with a sharp increase in the rate of human-made, greenhouse-induced warming [45; 61; 887; 1078; 1150, figure 8.18 on page 699; 1357; 1688, as per 1659; 1741; 1754; 1831]. This places us on track for a bit less than 3°C of warming from the 1900s to end of the 21st century [2066; 2072; 2073].

Some individuals might mistakenly believe this temperature change is irrelevant, since they experience larger local temperature fluctuations over shorter time periods. But these shorter-term local fluctuations are not comparable to the effect of longer-term global warming. As an analogy [2091 - 2095]: the surface of a small section of human skin could warm by 6°C for just a short time, without affecting the person's health much. But if a person had a fever where their body warmed by 1.5°C and stayed that way long-term, then that would have a larger effect on their health. Similarly, longer-term global warming can have a larger effect than shorter-term local temperature fluctuations [121, pages 6 - 16; 500; 591; 592, figure 2 for v007 and figure 88 for v043; 593, section 17 on page 19; 594; 595, page 17; 596; 605; 1069; 1392; 1526; 1556, from 30:01 to 32:32; 1557; 1822; 1838; 1949].
For instance, Earth's surface was only about 5°C - 6°C cooler over 17,000 years ago relative to the 1800s, during the glacial phase of Earth's ice age [12, as per 112 and 113; 18 (to be read with 2104 - 2106); 118 (to be read with 1655 - 1657; 1861); 187; 363; 448, with 449; 593, page 9; 1069; 1556, from 30:01 to 32:32; 1604; 1861; 1862; 1869] (remembering that 1°C of warming at high latitudes translates to ~0.6°C of global warming in data for this older period [118 (to be read with 1655 - 1657; 1861); 1589; 1604, figure 12]). Moreover, Earth's surface was only 2°C - 3°C warmer than the 2000s during the Middle Pliocene over 2.5 million years ago [448, with 449; 2079, section 4.2.1 on page 2295 (along with 2080, section 7 on page 1943), citing 2081 and 2082; 2083; 2086; 2108; 2112], resulting in an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer [2079, section 4.2.1 on page 2295 (along with 2080, section 7 on page 1943), citing 2081 and 2082; 2083; 2087; 2088, page S25, citing 2089], along with CO2 levels of around 400ppm [448, with 449; 1922; 2083 - 2086; 2108; 2112; 2113]. Consistent with this, scientists project an ice-free summer for the Arctic Ocean during the mid-to-late 21st century [1728; 2074 - 2078]; CO2 levels are also now above 410ppm [117; 1406; 1408; 1409; 1432; 1620; 1837; 2096], the highest they have been in at least 2 million years [1589; 1662; 1922; 2085; 2086] and increasing at a rate not seen for tens of millions of years [922; 923; 1604; 1751; 1821].

Scotese [735, page 2] and others [593, page 9] illustrate a similar point by discussing the magnitude of recent warming in comparison to warming since Earth emerged from a glacial period ~21,000 years ago (figure 1 above depicts this emergence):

"When humankind emerged from the last major ice age, about 21,000 years ago, both poles and much of the northern continents were covered by expanding ice sheets [...]. In the past 10,000 years the Earth has naturally warmed and the ice sheets have retreated towards the poles.
[...]
But Nature may not have its way. Things have changed. We have changed things. The addition of CO2 to the atmosphere during the last 200 years of human industry has amplified this natural warming trend and the average global temperature has risen rapidly. [...] Since 1880, [the average global temperature] has increased another .6° degrees to 14.4°C (as of 2015). This rate of warming is ~50 times faster than the rate of warming during the previous 21,000 years [emphasis added; endnotes removed] [735, page 2]."

(In figure 14A I depict the warming rate over the past ~11,000 years, in comparison to the much greater warming rate over the past couple of centuries. Thus anthropogenic, industrial-era warming recently pushed Earth's average surface temperature out of the range it lay within for at least the past ~11,000 years or more [1838, figure 1.2 on page 57, citing 995 {read with 14}; 1057]. One can assess Scotese's claims on the past ~21,000 years since the last glaciation by examining figure 14A, along with other papers [14; 995; 1017, figures 2A and 2B; 1057; 1950]. Other research also estimated the relative impact of CO2-induced anthropogenic warming in the context of glacial cycles [924; 925; 1308; 1843]. I discuss Scotese's work further in section 2.10, with a focus on how myth proponents and contrarians abuse Scotese's research.)

So though a greatly increased warming rate above natural variability is not required for supporting the idea of anthropogenic global warming, industrial-era global warming still spiked beyond recent natural variability. Thus strength with respect to magnitude of warming supports the idea that something other than natural variability caused industrial-era global warming. Contrarians [1273; 1274; 1275, pages 9 and 10; 1276, figure 13; 1277, pages 10 and 12; 1278 - 1285; 1327, page 62; 1328; 1354, pages 2 - 3; 1362, section 2.2; 1370; 1554; 1555; 1592; 1617] such as Anthony Watts [1273] and Judith Curry [1274] offer a different argument based on strength and magnitude of warming. A version of this argument goes as follows: 

CO2 levels increased much more during the latter half of 20th century than during the early 20th century. So increased CO2 likely did not contribute much to 1910s - 1940s global warming. Yet, the contrarians argue, 1910s - 1940s warming is roughly the same magnitude as 1970s - 1990s warming. Thus increased CO2 also (supposedly) did not contribute much to 1970s - 1990s warming. Instead, whatever factor(s) caused 1910s - 1940s warming also likely caused 1970s - 1990s warming. 

Figure 9 below from Watts' contrarian blog illustrates this line of reasoning, supplemented with comments that Watts added to the image (Watts approvingly posted this image and comment [1273 that he found on another blog [1326]):


Figure 9: Anthony Watts' cited image from his blog WattsUpWithThat, arguing that since the rate of 1976 - 2000 warming is statistically indistinguishable from the rate of 1917 - 1944 warming, then most of the post-1976 warming cannot be attributed to human release of CO2. Watts cited source [1326] includes [1273] a quote from Judith Curry in order to bolster this point [1274].

Curry continued using this type of erroneous reasoning on causal attribution [1274; 1286 - 1288; 1414; 1416] up until at least January 2019 [1414], despite the fact that her published research entails that increased CO2 caused most of the industrial-era global warming [353; 364], and despite her being repeatedly corrected on her flawed reasoning [653; 1292; 1293; 1355; 1372; 1552; 1592]. Curry's response was to falsely [620; 621; 1294, page 694; 1295 - 1307] insinuate that climate scientists exaggerated the impact of greenhouse gases and climate change [1287; 1290], while minimizing early 20th century warming [1289], in order to keep their jobs. Given her baseless paranoia, it is surprising that she claims to be unaware of why more people do not share her views on causal attribution [1291].
I further discuss her poor reasoning on causal attribution in "Myth: Judith Curry Fully and Accurately Represents Scientific Research". Her failure to adequately acknowledge the strength of the CO2 vs. warming relationship may explain why she falsely predicted post-1990s multi-decadal global cooling or a flat temperature trend [1319 - 1323; 1648; 1649; 1808 - 1810]; for more on this, see "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades", section 2.1 of "Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable", and a separate Twitter thread [1337]. And I address her claims on early 20th century warming in "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming".

The contrarians' argument fails for a number of reasons, which I discuss in various sections of this post. For instance:

  • The argument assumes that the rate of CO2 increase is linearly-related the rate of CO2-induced warming. For example, on this assumption, increasing CO2 by 30 parts per million (ppm) from 280ppm to 310ppm would have about the same warming effect as increasing CO2 30ppm from 380ppm to 410ppm. But this assumption is false. There is a logarithmic, non-linear relationship between increased CO2 and increased temperature [72; 349, pages 736 and 740; 918, chapter 4]. So a 30ppm increase in CO2 would have a greater warming effect during the lower CO2 levels of the early 20th century vs. during the greater CO2 levels of the late 20th century. The logarithmic relationship between increased CO2 and CO2-induced warming [72; 349, pages 736 and 740; 918, chapter 4] means that a near-exponential increase in CO2 [20; 121, page 3; 482; 493, figure 1; 590, figure 2; 923; 1062, figure 6; 1400, figures 6, 7, 8, and 9; 1830] resulted in a more-linear rate of CO2-induced warming [72; 485 - 491; 1413, figure 4; 1415] across the 20th century [35, page 2349; 72; 487; 492; 493; 494, page 1; 1413, figure 4; 1415] (see sections 2.6 and 2.10 for more on this, along with figures 22, 23, and 25).
  • The aforementioned more-linear CO2-induced warming combined with temperature trends caused by other factors, such as aerosols, yielding the observed 20th century temperature trend. Thus increased greenhouses gases contributed between a quarter to a half of the 1910s - 1940s warming depicted in figure 9 [1078, figure 3 on page 7; 1360; 1361] (see section 2.10, figure 22 and figure 23).
  • Other factors, such as increased solar output, contributed to 1910s - 1940s warming [1078, figure 3, on page 7; 1360; 1361; 1659]. But these factors can be ruled out as primary causes of post-1960s warming. The evidence ruling out these causes also rules in increased CO2 as the primary cause of post-1960s warming (see sections 2.9 and 2.10, along with figures 22 and 23).
  • Figure 9 cites HadCRUT, a surface temperature analysis known to under-estimate recent warming due to its poorer coverage in rapidly warming areas, such as the Arctic [752; 764, section 4; 1347, figure 1, sections 4.2.2 and 4.2.3; 1350; 1450; 1452; 1458; 1689 - 1696]. Moreover, HadCRUT4 likely over-estimates 1910s - 1940s warming, in large part because of changes in sea surface temperature measuring practices during World War II [1659; 1677; 1688; 1731], as I go over in "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming" (see figure 22 in comparison to figure 23).
  • Even if one accepts the HadCRUT analysis cited in figure 9, 1976 - 2000 [751; 1312 - 1314, , generated using 741, as per 742; 1318] warming likely occurred at a greater rate than 1917 - 1944 warming [751; 1309 - 1311, generated using 741, as per 742; 1318], though the relatively small size of years means that the difference may not be statistically significant [764, figure 3; 1324, page 194; 1325]. Including more years of data would help resolve this issue. Yet the contrarians' argument leaves out the post-1990s global warming that I discuss in "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades" and section 2.1 of "Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable" (see figures 21, 22, and 23). When one includes this warming, post-1970s warming [751; 1315 - 1317, generated using 741, as per 742; 1318] through 2018 is over 1.5 times as long as 1910s - 1940s warming [751; 1309 - 1311, generated using 741, as per 742; 1318], with a greater warming rate in every near-global surface temperature analysis. Take, for instance, the HadCRUT4 analysis that is particularly relevant to Watts' "HadCRUT" citation in figure 9. HadCRUT4 warming rates for 1917 - 1944, 1976 - 2000, and 1976 - 2017 are (respectively and in K per decade): 0.15, 0.18, and 0.18 [1318; 1776]. When combined with the longer time-period for 1976 - 2017 [751; 1315 - 1317, generated using 741, as per 742; 1318] vs. 1917 - 1944 [751; 1309 - 1311, generated using 741, as per 742; 1318], this means that the total amount of global warming was greater from 1976 - 2017 than for 1917 - 1944 (see figures 21, 22, and 23). Thus, if one thought that the magnitude of post-1970s warming was pertinent, then the increased magnitude of post-1970s warming [751; 1315 - 1317, generated using 741, as per 742; 1318] (vs. 1917 - 1944 warming [751; 1309 - 1311, generated using 741, as per 742; 1318]) undermines Watts' cited claim [1273] that CO2 did not cause most of the post-1970s warming.
  • The observed post-2000 warming rate of ~0.2 K per decade [751; 1318; 1331 - 1334, 1698, outliers in 1335, generated using 741, as per 742] is on par with IPCC model-based projections [120, figure 10.5 and table 10.5 on page 763; 483, page 7; 1318, section on "CMIP5 global mean temperature"; 1329, page 1010 and figure 11.25b on page 1011] that include increased CO2 causing most of the recent warming [121, figure SPM.2 on page 5; 373, page 869]. This warming rate also rebuts the predictions of cooling or no warming made by contrarians such as Curry [1319 - 1323; 1648; 1649; 1808 - 1810], Loehle [1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82; 1388, figure 6], Anastasios Tsonis [1443, page 4; 1444; 1445; 1446; 1447, paragraphs 14 and 15; 1863; 1864], and François Gervais [909], along with Akasofu [1214, figure 5; 2036, citing 2037 - 2039, for 2040; similar point in: 2041 - 2043] and Scafetta [129, figure 5; 131, figure 12; 1223, figure 16; 1224, figure 6; 1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82] from section 2.2, as I discuss in the caption for figure 20, "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades", section 2.1 of "Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable", and "Myth: El Niño Caused Post-1997 Global Warming". In separate multi-tweet Twitter threads [1330; 1337], I mention numerous examples of denialists under-estimating recent warming, in contrast to more accurate warming projections from sources such as the IPCC, as per section 2.4. So the contrarians may under-estimate more recent warming because they used 1910s - 1940s warming to unduly minimize the strength of the CO2 vs. warming relationship.
  • Increased CO2 does not need to cause most of the 1910s - 1940s global warming in order for it to cause most of the post-1970s warming, just as humans do not need to have caused every forest fire in the distant past in order for humans to have caused a recent forest fire [6; 1355; 1356; 1358]. Along similar lines, the police can have clear evidence that a particular forest fire resulted from arson even if the police cannot explain every forest fire in the past, just as scientists can have clear evidence that increased CO2 caused most of the post-1970s warming even if scientists cannot explain every instance of global warming in the past (see section 2.10 for more on this). Thus one can attribute most of the post-1970s warming to increased CO2, even if this warming is of the same magnitude as past non-CO2-induced warming. Causal attribution does not require that an anthropogenic trend greatly spike above natural, non-anthropogenic trends, as I illustrated with the serial killer example earlier in this section.

(For more context on 1910s - 1940s warming, especially with respect to sea surface warming, see "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming")

So in conclusion: a recent warming rate greatly above past natural variability (to an unprecedented degree) is not required for supporting the CO2-temperature relationship. Despite this fact, industrial-era global warming is large and rapid, especially in the context of the past 21,000 years since the last glacial period. Evidence from the distant past also shows that increased CO2 caused significant levels of global warming, consistent with high climate sensitivity. Moreover, the scientific evidence supports a climate sensitivity estimate high enough that CO2 caused most of the recent global warming; I argue for this point further in section 2.7. Thus the strength of the CO2-temperature relationship supports the claim that increased CO2 caused most of the industrial-era global warming.


Section 2.6: A physical gradient


A sizable proportion of the public feels uncomfortable with vaccination [301; 303; 385, pages 28 - 30; 386, table 5 on page 81; 387; 388] and with the claims scientists make regarding vaccination [307; 308, table 3; 386, table 5 on page 81; 389]. For instance, US President Donald Trump claimed that doctors deceitfully induce autism in children by giving the children too many vaccines too soon [381 - 383; 384, from 2:15; 393]. This is consistent with his contrarianism on vaccination [2012 - 2016; 2018 - 2020], and correlates with his supporters being more likely to view vaccination negatively [2012; 2017; 2018]. 

Different vaccine denialists (or anti-vaxxers) [22; 271 - 278; 390; 1174 - 1176] offer different proposals for how vaccines cause conditions such as autism (I discuss vaccination further in section 2.7 and autism in section 2.10). Some vaccine denialists claim that vaccines contain aluminum-based [392; 424 - 426] and/or mercury-based compounds that cause disease [391; 423; 426], or that doctors give too many vaccines too soon [381 - 383; 384, from 2:15; 391; 393; 400; 409; 423; 426], overwhelming/irritating the child's immune system [400; 406; 407; 1099]. Others anti-vaxxers argue that vaccines contain excessive levels of immune-activating substances from viruses, bacteria, etc. and that these substances, known as antigens, damage the child [391; 409].

If the anti-vaxxers' causal hypotheses were correct, then providing more vaccines doses per child and vaccinating more children should either make the children's condition worse, or increase the number of children who suffer from diseases such as neurological conditions. Thus a biological gradient, or a dose-response relationship, should hold between disease vs. vaccine doses and vaccination rates.

But this biological gradient did not manifest. Increasing exposure to vaccine antigens did not result in greater risk for neurological conditions [409; 415; 964; 965; 967; 1507 - 1510], including in populations at greater risk for autism [1507; 1509; 1510]. The levels of aluminum-based compounds in vaccines also remained too low to pose a serious risk [392; 395 - 398], and the levels of mercury-containing compounds in vaccines did not correlate with autism rates [391; 399; 427; 1508]. Moreover, vaccinated children did not suffer from an over-reactive or under-reactive immune system relative to unvaccinated children [400; 401; 407; 408], nor were vaccinated children more prone to disease [400; 402 - 404; 405, page 1250; 407; 408; 410; 418; 419; 421; 422; 427; 1099; 1100].

Instead, unvaccinated and under-vaccinated children remained more susceptible to vaccine-preventable conditions than were fully vaccinated children [402 - 404; 418 - 422; 427; 428; 942; 1061; 1097; 1098], including with respect to conditions [402 - 404; 418; 420; 421; 427; 428; 942; 1097; 1098] that can damage the nervous system [411 - 414; 1098]. And receiving vaccines on-time did not increase neurological risk in comparison to delaying vaccination [416; 417; 429]; in fact, receiving vaccines on-time correlated with reduced neurological risk [416, page 1137; 1098; 1507, figure 2]. This type of evidence led to an evidence-based scientific consensus on vaccine safety and efficacy [30; 399; 943 - 946; 947, table 3 on page 4594], to the point that many doctors and medical scientists defend mandatory childhood vaccination (with allowances for medically-based exemptions) [28; 428; 947, table 3 on page 4594; 948], consistent with doctors vaccinating their own children [945]. So the biological gradient went in the opposite direction than was predicted by the anti-vaxxers' causal hypotheses.

Just as the anti-vaxxers' causal hypotheses imply a (debunked) biological gradient, CO2-induced warming implies a physical gradient: more CO2 results in more warming, with more CO2 causing more radiative forcing. So, for instance, increasing CO2 from 200 parts per million (ppm) to 300ppm should result in less of CO2-induced warming effect than increasing CO2 from 200ppm to 400ppm. This physical gradient manifests, as shown in figures 1 and 6. Scientists can even roughly quantify this gradient, as shown in figures 7 and 15.

Thus scientific evidence confirms the physical gradient predicted for CO2-induced warming, while debunking the biological gradient predicted by anti-vaxxers' ideas. A confirmed gradient is not a trivial matter, as illustrated by a retracted anti-genetically-modified-food study [662] that failed to find a biological gradient [919 - 921] for the paper's debunked causal hypothesis; a greater amount of the proposed cause did not result in a greater effect [314; 661; 662; 919] (I discuss genetically modified food further in section 2.4). The anti-vaxxers' failed biological gradients also illustrate that discovering a gradient is not trivial.

Though a physical gradient holds between increased CO2 and increased temperature, the relationship between increased CO2 levels and warming is logarithmic, not linear. This means that within a certain range of CO2 levels, doubling CO2 levels results in the same amount of warming, regardless of whether that doubling is 200ppm up to 400ppm, or 400ppm up to 800ppm [72; 349, pages 736 and 740; 918, chapter 4]. This relationship, however, breaks down in extreme cases [481; 1074].

Atmospheric CO2 levels increased in a roughly exponential manner over the past two centuries [20; 121, page 3; 482; 493, figure 1; 590, figure 2; 923; 1062, figure 6; 1400, figures 6, 7, 8, and 9; 1830], alongside a near-exponential increase in CO2 emissions from human activity [484; 1062, figure 6; 1674, figures 2 and 3]; this increased CO2 levels [579, page 2; 580; 581; 584; 1854] to the highest levels in at least 2 million years [1589; 1662; 1922; 2085; 2086] and at a rate not seen for tens of millions of years [922; 923; 1604; 1751; 1821]. This near-exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 caused a more-linear CO2-induced warming trend, as predicted by mainstream climate science [72; 485 - 491; 1413, figure 4; 1415], given the logarithmic relationship between increased CO2 levels and increased temperature [72; 349, pages 736 and 740; 918, chapter 4]. And this CO2-induced warming from human combustion of fossil fuels dates back to at least the mid-to-late 1800s, if not earlier [35, page 2349; 72; 487; 492; 493; 494, page 1]. In section 2.10 I discuss how this long-term, more-linear CO2-induced warming trend combines with shorter-term factors that impact temperature; figures 22, 23, and 25 depict this point.

Thus more-linear CO2-induced warming from a near-exponential increase in CO2 levels, along with estimates of climate sensitivity and greater CO2 increases correlating with greater warming, illustrate the physical gradient between increased CO2 and warming. This physical gradient lends further credence to the notion of CO2 causing most of the recent global warming.


Section 2.7: Consistency / reproducibility of the correlation


During the 1990s and 2000s, a number of American social conservatives obscured [496; 497; 530] the likely role condoms played in reducing the transmission of two groups of viruses: human papillomavirus (HPV), a group of viruses that cause cervical cancer [523 - 529], and herpes simplex virus (HSV). Yet multiple studies (including subsequently published work) showed a correlation between condom use vs. reduced risk of HSV [496, page 2; 531; 536 - 538; 541] and HPV infection [496, page 2; 532 - 535; 541]. This correlation makes mechanistic sense since condoms cover some of the routes of HSV and HPV infection, though condoms do not prevent all HPV and HSV infections (see section 2.2 for more on the role of mechanisms in causal attribution) [496; 541]. So the repeatedly confirmed correlation between condom use vs. reduced HSV and HPV infection risk debunks the misrepresentations offered by some American conservatives.

And just as in the case of HSV and HPV, in the 2000s and 2010s a number of religious and social conservatives misrepresented the facts on HPV vaccination. These conservatives insinuated that providing HPV vaccination to girls and young women would increase promiscuity, since the girls and young women would feel less fearful of sexually transmitted viruses such as HPV [512 - 514; 515, page 4; 516]. This increased promiscuity would increase in the rate of sexually transmitted infection; thus HPV vaccination would increase sexually transmitted infections and promiscuity.

Yet study after study showed that HPV vaccination was not associated with an increase in sexually transmitted infections [517; 518] or promiscuity [517 - 520]. Instead, HPV vaccination did what it was supposed to do: reduce the rate of HPV infection and the rate of cancers caused by HPV, as shown in numerous studies published by different researchers [521 - 529; 539; 540]. So these reproducible correlations rebutted the "vaccination increases promiscuity and infections" causal hypothesis, while supporting the "vaccination reduces infections and cancer" causal hypothesis.

The HPV and HSV examples illustrate the importance of robust correlations reproduced by different research groups, when assessing causal hypotheses. This point extends to reproducible results in other branches of science, including climatology. Independent research groups apply different analysis methods to climate data. These research groups and methods serve as a check on one another, helping remedy the mistakes involved in any one research group or method [193; 223; 493; 543; 547 - 549; 550, pages 14, 120, and 122; 551 - 559].

This is one reason why scientists use different approaches/methods to test a conclusion: the strengths of one method can compensate for the weaknesses in another method, so that one knows that the results are not just due to the flaws of one particular method. This leads to consilient/convergent lines of evidence supporting a conclusion [24; 118; 349; 350; 542 - 549; 550, pages 14, 120, and 122; 1855], as in the case of the evidence-based [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 202, chapter 3; 394; 684; 887; 1078; 1101; 1108; 1185; 1357; 1658; 1659; 1741; 1754; 1787; 1831; 1836, pages 22 - 24; 1838, page 57] scientific consensus [28; 31, table 1; 32, figure 2 v007 on page 11; 33, page 49, 499 page 28 in chapter 2; 500] that CO2 caused most of the recent global warming.

Thus different research groups can readily reproduce the correlation between CO2 and temperature changes, as shown in figures 1, 7, and 19. And different causal frameworks support the attribution of warming to CO2 [7 - 10; 544 - 546], as I discussed in section 2.1. This contrasts with the lack of reproducibility evident in the work of critics of the evidence-based [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 202, chapter 3; 394; 684; 887; 1078; 1101; 1108; 1185; 1357; 1658; 1659; 1741; 1754; 1787; 1831; 1836, pages 22 - 24; 1838, page 57] scientific consensus [28; 31, table 1; 32, figure 2 v007 on page 11; 33, page 49, 499 page 28 in chapter 2; 500] on CO2-induced warming. One such critic/contrarian [1006; 1038; 1367] is Javier of Judith Curry's blog [978]. Javier presents figure 10 below in order to argue that recent warming resulted from a natural cycle, instead of the warming being predominately caused by CO2 [978, figure 115]. Other contrarians make a similar argument [1193; 1270, from 14:37 to 18:52; 1271; 1272]. Figure 11 shows the actual trend, as depicted in the paper Javier cites as his source:


Figure 10: Javier's graph of a reconstruction of northern hemisphere temperature changes, in comparison to his proposed natural cycle. The solid gray line represents the temperature reconstruction from the 500 to 1978, the black line reflects the low frequency trend for the reconstruction, and the dotted line indicates warming from 1975 - 2000. Javier claims this reconstructed temperature trend [978] comes from a paper authored by Moberg et al. [1015]; I present that paper's actual reconstruction in figure 11 below [1015, figure 2b on page 3]. The red line depicts Javier's proposed natural cycle, which he describes as the "980-year Eddy cycle [...], with a declining Neoglacial trend of –0.2 °C/millennium [978]."
Acronyms are as follows: DACP - Dark Ages cold period; MWP - medieval warm period; LIA - little ice age; MGW - modern global warming [978, figure 115].
On a shorter time-scale, Javier forecasts no warming for the first quarter of the 21st century and fairly minimal sea level rise [1505]; I predict both of his forecasts will fail [1514].

                                                 200            600            1000          1400           1800
                                                                                  Year (AD)

Figure 11: Moberg et al. 2005 proxy-based reconstruction of northern hemisphere temperature changes. The red line represents the multi-proxy temperature reconstruction from the years 1 to 1979, the dark blue line reflects the low frequency trend for the reconstruction, the light blue lines shows the low frequency trend when individual proxy series are excluded one at at time, and the green line indicates trends from the instrumental record (instead of the proxy-based temperature reconstruction) until after 1990 [1015, figure 2b on page 3].

Figure 11 depicts recent temperature as being clearly warmer than temperature from the 1000s; thus Moberg et al., the authors of figure 11, note that post-1990 warmth appears to be unprecedented in comparison to the rest of their temperature reconstruction [1015, page 2] (I discussed the relevance of "unprecedented" trends in section 2.5, especially in relation to figure 8). In contrast to figure 11, Javier's figure 10 makes recent temperature appear as warm as temperature from the 1000s. This has the effect of making recent temperatures appear as warm as the medieval warm period (MWP) of around the 1000s; I discuss the MWP further in part A of section 2.4 of "Myth: No Hot Spot Implies Less Global Warming and Support for Lukewarmerism".

In addition to distorting Moberg et al.'s comparison of recent temperature to temperature in the distant past, Javier's figure 10 also excludes the pre-500s data shown in Moberg et al.'s figure 11. This conveniently excludes data that argues against Javier's "natural cycle" explanation. After all, based on Javier's natural cycle (shown in red in figure 10), temperature in figure 11 should increase from about 500AD to 1AD, coming close to a temperature peak by 1AD. But figure 11 shows no such pattern. So Javier's "natural cycle" correlation is not reproducible in the very temperature reconstruction he cites. Thus Javier unjustifiably excludes data that argues against his hypothesis, despite Javier saying:

"Nice try, but there is no escaping the evidence whenever it doesn’t fit your pet hypothesis [1037]."

But there is a deeper problem here: Javier's figure 10 presents just one temperature reconstruction from the northern hemisphere. Other northern hemisphere reconstructions exist [995; 998; 1016 - 1022; 1057; 1173; 1177]. Javier knows this since he cites these reconstructions [978, figure 103], even though he does not show his natural cycle appearing in said reconstructions. Javier's figure 10 cycle should appear in these reconstructions, if Javier's cycle-based explanation yields reproducible results. Yet Javier's smoothed cycle does not show up in other reconstructions of the northern hemisphere [995; 998; 1016 - 1020; 1173; 1177; 1807, figure 2c]. Nor does his cycle appear in reconstructions of the southern hemisphere [1017, figure 2B; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409]. This is because the MWP was not as pronounced in the southern hemisphere [1017, figure 2B; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409], possibly because the ratio of ocean-to-land is higher in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere, and ocean warms less readily than land [137, from 31:47 to 33:33; 1024 - 1031].

One can combine evidence from the both hemispheres in order to generate a more global picture. This picture shows a hockey stick pattern, in which global average temperature is relatively constant, with some warming during the MWP. Then rapid warming occurs during the past two centuries, forming the blade of the hockey stick pattern [761; 995; 998; 1017; 1018; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409; 1658; 1750, figure 4a, as depicted in 1816; 1752; 1753; 1807]; this blade can be shown with proxy records [492; 761 - 763; 1172; 1173; 1433, figure 3 on page 8, citing 467; 1434, figure 3a on page 511; 1522; 1524; 1597; 1598; 1704; 1742; 1807; 1831, figure 1c], or with the instrumental record through direct [761; 995; 998; 1017; 1018; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409; 1173, figure 4; 1742; 1807] and indirect means [760; 1173, figure 4; 1503, using 741, as per 742, with the re-analyses from 760 and 1504; 1807, figure 3]. The blade of this hockey stick recently pushed Earth's average surface temperature out of the range it lay within for at least the past ~11,000 years or more [1838, figure 1.2 on page 57, citing 995 {read with 14}; 1057]. The hockey stick even appears in sources that "skeptics"/contrarians distort [1032; 1033, from 4:54 to 13:35], including in many regional temperature trends in the northern hemisphere [995; 998; 1016 - 1021; 1022, figure 7; 1057, figure 2; 1173; 1177; 1524; 1597; 1598; 1658; 1807, figure 2c; 1850; 1926]. Figure 12 depicts the hockey stick in northern hemisphere reconstructions:


Figure 12: Proxy-based reconstructions of northern hemisphere temperature changes. The noted temperature reconstructions come from the listed sources, with the temperature reconstructions being depicted in yellow, green, dark gray, dark blue, light blue, and pink lines. 95% confidence intervals for the yellow and green lines are shown using yellow and green shading, respectively. The instrumental temperature trends are represented by light gray and red lines, covering the period of 1850 to 2006. The light gray line is for land + ocean temperature trends, while the red line covers only land. The straight black lines that meet at 1000AD and 2000AD are not relevant for our purposes; they connect this graph to another graph that focuses on the temperature period after 1000AD.
Acronyms as follows: EIV (error-in-variables) and CPS (composite plus scale) represent two different methods for generating proxy-based temperatures trend in relation to instrumental trends; HAD : land + ocean temperature trends from HadCRUT3v (version 3 of the United Kingdom's Hadley Center, Climate Research Unit Surface Temperature record); CRU : land temperature trends from CRUTem3v, the land-only component of HADCRUT [1016, figure 3 on page 13256].

Many "skeptics"/contrarians avoid this hockey stick pattern by either cherry-picking temperature records from particular locations or by focusing on temperature records from just the northern hemisphere [1033, from 4:54 to 13:35; 1034, page 4]. Javier engages in this misleading cherry-picking, including in his use of figure 10. Figures 13 and 14 below depict the hockey stick in global analyses:


Figure 13: Proxy-based reconstructions of global temperature changes. Each panel from a to f depicts the temperature trend with different data analysis choices. The gray line represents the high resolution multi-proxy reconstruction and the dark blue line reflects the low resolution multi-proxy reconstruction, with 95% confidence intervals shown as blue and gray shading, respectively. High resolution records have a resolution finer than 5 years, while lower resolution records have a resolution of 5 years or coarser. The instrumental temperature trend is depicted by the the red line, covering the period of 1850 to 2014.
Panel f is the outlier among the panels because of its low resolution reconstruction in blue. This low resolution reconstruction contains a very low number of proxies, due to the data analysis choices made in panel f. This low resolution reconstruction in panel f also has less overlap with the instrumental record in red, making this reconstruction more difficult to compare to the instrumental record.
Acronyms: HR - high resolution; LR - low resolution; HADCRUT4 - version 4.2 of the United Kingdom's Hadley Center, Climate Research Unit Surface Temperature record [761, figure 7], modified as per the work of Cowtan and Way [752].
These results come from a 2017 paper [761] that updated a 2013 paper [998], and was itself updated in a 2019 paper [1750, figure 1a]. All three show the hockey stick.

Figure 14: Proxy-based reconstructions of global and hemispheric temperature changes. Temperature changes are relative to a 1850-1880 baseline, with shading indicating +/- 1 standard deviation [1017, figures 2A and 2B]. The results come from a previously published paper, combining proxy-based temperature estimates with the more recent instrumental record. The x-axis represents "years before present" (years BP) [995], which means "years before 1950AD" in paleoclimatology [114; 1036, section c of Article 13 on page 1564]; this point sometimes confuses contrarians [982, from 5:33 to 7:52; 1033, from 8:13 to 9:10; 1035, page 95; 1039]. Each unit on the x-axis represents 1000 years; so, for instance, "10" is 10,000 years BP.
(A) Surface temperature trends for the globe (red) and for the extra-tropical northern hemisphere for the noted latitudes of 30°N to 90°N (green) [1017, figure 2A].
(B) Surface temperature trends for the extra-tropical southern hemisphere for the noted latitudes of 30°S to 90°S [1017, figures 2A and 2B].

The northern hemisphere cooling trend in panel A from before roughly 2000 years ago (so before "2" on the x-axis) has been contested by more recent research. This recent research argues for warming up until about 2000 years ago. This warming trend was much less rapid than recent warming, consistent with the hockey stick [1057; 1183; 1742] and climate model results [1057; 1183; 1745; 1747]. This largely resolves [1057; 1183; 1745] the so-called "Holocene conundrum" [1178; 1179; 1183; 1184], though some controversy still persists over whether [1742; 1743; 1747] or not [1057; 1744 - 1746] there was broad cooling ~7000 years BP to ~2000 years BP. Ruddiman also shows that human land use and agricultural practices increased CO2 and methane levels in a way that mitigated global cooling during this period [2026 - 2033].

The hockey sticks in figures 8, 12, 13, and 14 show recent warming that is much more rapid and greater than warming during the MWP, with recent temperatures being warmer than during the MWP, consistent with section 2.5's discussion of "unprecendented" trends. Javier's natural cycle in figure 10 contrasts with this pattern: his cycle involves recent warming occurring at about the same rate as during the MWP, and recent temperature not being substantially warmer than during the MWP. Thus the hockey sticks from figures 8, 12, 13, and 14 do not reflect Javier's natural cycle from figure 10. So Javier's alternative, non-CO2-based explanation for recent warming fails the consistency/reproducibility portion of the Bradford Hill considerations.

Instead the hockey stick is the reproducible result in temperature reconstructions with more global coverage [761; 995; 998; 1017; 1018; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409; 1524; 1807]. This hockey stick pattern fits with a model in which recent warming was rapid in the context of the past 2000 years, and the recent warming was coincident with a sharp increase in atmospheric CO2 levels [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 202, chapter 3; 394; 684; 887; 1078; 1101; 1108; 1185; 1357; 1658; 1659; 1741; 1750, figure 4a, as depicted in 1816; 1754; 1787; 1831] (I explain the role of warming rates in causal attribution in section 2.5). This warming melted ice [1702 - 1705] and also contributed to sea level rise, since warming above land melts land ice which then flows into the ocean and warming of the oceans results in thermal expansion of water [466 - 468; 1069; 1070; 1721]. Melting sea ice also made a small, largely negligible contribution to sea level rise, since sea ice is less dense than ocean water, with a lower salt concentration [1700; 1701]. Thus sea level rise accelerated during periods of warming, such as during post-1970s warming [468; 1706 - 1712; 1713, table 2; 1714, figure 3; 1715, figure 1B] and during the past couple of decades [468; 1456; 1457; 1706; 1707; 1712; 1715 - 1720]. Moreover, human release of greenhouse gases contributed substantially to sea level rise [470; 472 - 480] and ice melt [1702; 1704; 1705; 1722 - 1730].

This counters the claims of the contrarian Roger Andrews, who tries to use ice trends and sea level rise to argue against increased CO2 as the primary cause of warming following the little ice age of a few centuries ago [1699] (in section 2.2, I explain the fatal flaws in Andrews "recovery from the little ice age" non-explanation). Ice trends, sea level, and other proxies [492; 761 - 763; 1172; 1173; 1433, figure 3 on page 8, citing 467; 1434, figure 3a on page 511; 1522; 1524; 1597; 1598; 1704; 1742; 1807; 1831, figure 1c; 1926] instead display a hockey stick pattern, with rapid ice melt and sea level rise during the industrial-era [762; 1433, figure 3 on page 8, citing 467; 1434, figure 3a on page 511; 1522; 1524]. So the reproducible hockey stick lends further credence to the idea of CO2-induced warming.

The hockey stick is not the only reproducible result relevant to CO2-induced warming. For instance, figure 7 documents the reproducible, consilient lines of evidence showing that equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is above 1.0°C, and thus great enough for CO2 to have cause most of the recent global warming, as I discussed in section 2.5. And figure 15 below depicts more consilience/reproducibility with respect to transient climate sensitivity, or the transient climate response to CO2 (TCR; I discussed the transient climate response in section 2.5):


Figure 15: Published estimates of TCR drawn from different methods. Different colors represent different studies. Dots mark means, medians, or best estimates; colored bars designate different percentile ranges. The gray range displays the 1°C to 2.5°C range [371, figure 1] within which the TCR is ‘likely’ to lie (probability >66% [372, table 1.2 on page 142]), as assessed by the IPCC [373, page 871 and figure 10.20 on page 925]. The gray vertical line indicates a value of 3°C above which TCR is ‘extremely unlikely’ to be (<5% [372, table 1.2 on page 142]) [373, page 871 and figure 10.20 on page 925], according to the IPCC [371, figure 1]. Various subsequently published TCR estimates, both with respect to relative changes in atmospheric CO2 levels or with respect to cumulative CO2 emissions [861; 1359; 1659; 1680; 1683; 1767; 1857 - 1859; 1873; 1976; 2053], were also within the IPCC's likely range [373, page 871 and figure 10.20 on page 925; 1614, page 1108 and figure 12.45 on page 1109; 1681; 2049; 2052].

In section 2.5 I mentioned major faults with lower sensitivity estimates; similar points apply to some of the lower TCR estimates in figure 15, such as Loehle's work and the estimates from Lewis and Curry. Additionally, Ollila 2014 uses an energy-budget-model-based approach that under-estimates climate sensitivity. Ollila 2014 [1621] also falsely claims that there is no evidence for positive feedback from clouds and water vapor. It does this by willfully ignoring published evidence (such at the evidence I cited in section 2.2), and by cherry-picking the deeply flawed NCEP re-analysis that I discuss in sections 2.6 and 2.7 of "Myth: No Hot Spot Implies Less Global Warming and Support for Lukewarmerism". And Ollila 2016 [1622] uses a volcanic eruption to argue for low climate sensitivity, even though the evidence from observed volcanic eruptions supports higher climate sensitivity and positive feedback from water vapor [349, figure 3; 1631, page, 483 citing 896; 1632 - 1637].

It is unsurprising that Ollila's work contains these obvious flaws, since, as I discussed in section 2.5, Ollila 2014 [1621] and Ollila 2016 [1622] were published in predatory, likely fake "journals" that were not listed on indices such as the Master Journal List [1623]. And the one instance of detailed peer review for Ollila's 2016 article [1627; 1628], pointed out crippling flaws in his work [1627 - 1629]. I discuss further flaws in Ollila's work elsewhere [1630]. So Ollila's dubious work [1621; 1622] does little to undermine the reproducible range of values for climate sensitivity in the form of TCR.

Moreover, the size of the temperature range for climate sensitivity estimates is not the sole barometer of progress in climate science [167, section 4b on page 13; 349, page 740; 351, section 1; 356; 371]. For example, despite the fact that the IPCC's ECS estimate remained between 1.5°C - 4.5°C for decades [349; 560], climate science improved in other ways [167, section 4b on page 13; 186; 213 - 215; 349, page 740; 351, section 1; 371; 380; 562 - 565], including improved estimates of cloud responses [186; 213 - 215; 380; 562 - 565], better understanding of the sources of uncertainty in sensitivity estimates [349, page 740; 350; 351, section 1; 371; 561; 904], and more lines of evidence for the noted ECS and TCR ranges [167, section 4b on page 13; 349, page 740; 350; 351, section 1; 371; 904]. This matters especially in the case of TCR vs. ECS; the former has a narrower range of values (see figure 7 vs. figure 15) that is better constrained by observed warming [371; 1659, section 4 on page 4904; 1976], and more useful for predicting more immediate, multi-decadal greenhouse-gas-induced warming trends vs. longer trends on century time-scales [371; 1767; 1973] (though some papers dispute this last point, arguing ECS better explains differences between model-based temperature trend projections [2109; 2110, section 3]; section 2.4 discusses accurate predictions of greenhouse-gas-induced warming trends).

Combined with the aforementioned improvements, the reproducibility of TCR estimates above 0.9°C provides further supporter to the idea that increased CO2 caused most of the recent global warming. This reproducibility remains absent from much of the work produced by critics of mainstream science on CO2-induced warming [223; 375; 555; 936 - 938], as illustrated in the previous discussion of Ollila's work and Javier's analysis. For example, in section 2.5 I discussed how subsequent research rebutted the low climate sensitivity work of Richard Lindzen [137, from 34:40 to 36:32, and 37:10 to 39:12; 170, section 1; 179, section 4; 367, page 1375; 375, pages 7 and 8; 376 - 380], Roy Spencer [170, section 1; 367, section 6 on page 1375; 935], Craig Loehle [359; 360], and various energy-budget-model based estimates [354 - 361; 367; 369; 370; 371, page 3]. So reproducibility argues against very low climate sensitivity estimates, in favor of climate sensitivity estimates high enough for increased CO2 to have caused most of the industrial-era global warming, and in favor of a hockey stick temperature pattern consistent with industrial-era CO2 increases causing rapid industrial-era warming.


Section 2.8: Primacy / Temporality


Causes are temporally-associated with their effects, and causes occur before their effects. A myth defender might therefore object that CO2 increases occur after temperature increases, and thus CO2 increases do not cause temperature increases [1; 2; 77, page 81 and 82; 80; 86; 87, pages 17 and 78; 89, page 27; 92; 93, page 363; 96]. But the proponent's reasoning is flawed. A CO2-temperature lag fails to show that increased CO2 does not cause warming, since positive feedback explains how CO2 can cause subsequent warming in the presence of a lag [3 - 6; 640, page 1730; 642, page 435; 949, pages 44 and 45]. Examining feedbacks in other contexts clarifies this point.

As I discussed in section 2.2, positive feedbacks, in response to an effect, amplify subsequent instances of that effect. In contrast, negative feedbacks, in response to an effect, mitigate subsequent instances of that effect [167; 168]. For over a century the scientific community discussed positive and negative feedbacks that occur in climatology [133; 571]. And the concepts of "positive feedback" and "negative feedback" are not specific to climate science; instead these concepts appear in a number of scientific fields [566 - 570; 572, figure 2; 1582 - 1586]. 

Positive and negative feedback also extend to everyday life. Take the following example: media advertisements can cause an initial increase in movie sales. People who see the movie can then tell other people about the movie, causing movie sales to increase by word-of-mouth. These new movie-goers then tell even more people about the movie, further increasing movie sales by word-of-mouth. Therefore one ends up with a positive feedback loop where word-of-mouth causes more movie sales, which causes more word-of-mouth, which causes more movie sales, which causes more word-of-mouth, and so on. Word-of-mouth thus increased movie sales via positive feedback. Yet word-of-mouth lagged the initial increase in movie sales, since media advertisements, not word-of-mouth, caused the initial increase in movie sales.

And as in the movie sale example, positive feedback explains how CO2 causes warming, even in the presence of a CO2-temperature lag [3 - 6; 640, page 1730; 642, page 435; 949, pages 44 and 45]. To see how, first note that another factor (such as a change in Earth's orbit and/or axial tilt relative to the Sun) can cause some initial ocean warming. The CO2-saturated warming oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere, this atmospheric CO2 causes further ocean warming, and a positive feedback loop begins between CO2-induced ocean warming and warming-induced ocean release of CO2.

Melting ice also contributes to the warming via the surface albedo feedback [3 - 5; 14; 640, page 1730; 641; 642, page 435; 643; 949, page 44; 1604], as I discussed in section 2.2. To recap: ice reflects more visible light from the Sun back into space than does liquid water. Melting ice therefore reduces Earth's albedo and increases the amount of radiation absorbed by Earth's surface [11; 170; 187; 688]. This increase in absorbed radiation causes more surface warming and therefore more ice melt; thus melting ice acts as a positive feedback amplifying warming [171; 188 - 191; 688]. Peter Hadfield (a.k.a. potholer54) [1, from 3:34 to 5:00] and the Australian Academy of Science [1189, figure 1.1 on page 5] offer the following helpful summary of this process, depicting the initial warming caused by changes in Earth's orbit and/or axial tilt relative to the Sun, and the subsequent greenhouse-gas-induced warming amplified by positive feedback:




Figure 16: Processes by which greenhouse-gas-induced warming and positive feedback can occur when changes in greenhouse gas levels lag changes in temperature. Though the top two panels of figure 16 were made by Peter Hadfield, a.k.a. potholer54 [1, from 3:34 to 5:00], a number of published papers discuss the overall process as well [3 - 5; 14; 640, page 1730; 641; 642, page 435; 643; 949, page 44]. The Australian Academy of Science generated the bottom panel.
(First panel) Factors, such as a change in Earth's orbit and/or axial tilt relative to the Sun, cause initial warming. Increased CO2 lags, and does not cause, this initial warming. This warming initiates a number of positive feedbacks that result in more warming. For instance, CO2-saturated warming oceans release more CO2 (as per Henry's law constant increasing with warming [696, pages 429 - 430; 1678]), and this increased CO2 causes more warming. Stronger winds spread out ice and warming melts more ice, lowering Earth's albedo and thus reducing the amount of solar radiation reflected by ice. This results in more warming. Melting permafrost also releases methane, another greenhouse gas that causes further warming (as I discussed in section 2.3).
(Second panel) The aforementioned positive feedbacks cause the subsequent warming that follows the initial orbital-forcing-induced warming. Increase CO2 precedes, and contributes to, this subsequent warming [1, from 3:34 to 5:00].
(Third and Fourth panels) These bottom panels also include increased water vapor as a positive feedback on warming, as I discussed in section 2.2. In contrast to periods orbital-forcing-induced warming in the distant past where changes in CO2 lag changes in temperature, modern anthropogenic warming involves humans increasing CO2 levels without CO2 lagging temperature. This man-made CO2 increase precedes, and causes, warming [1189, figure 1.1 on page 5].

So CO2-induced positive feedback from warming oceans and melting ice helps explain how CO2 causes the subsequent warming, even if CO2 did not cause the initial warming. None of this implies that CO2 does not cause warming. In fact, increased CO2 causes much of the subsequent warming after a CO2-temperature lag, as shown in studies of CO2-induced global warming in the distant past [11; 17; 18; 640, page 1730; 673, section 5.5; 949; 1523, page 42] in the context of glacial cycles [17; 18; 187; 363, page 3; 1352; 1353; 1859; 1861; 1862; 1869].

In addition to CO2-temperature lags, there are also past cases in which CO2 rises before or near the same time as the initial temperature rise in particular regions [13; 14; 640, pages 1730 and 1731; 949, page 44; 1523, page 42]. This is compatible with CO2 causing the initial warming in one region and most of the subsequent warming, as in the current period of global warming over the past couple of centuries [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 394; 640, page 1731; 684; 887; 1078].

And unlike during CO2-temperature lags in the distant past, warming oceans are not the cause of recent CO2 rise [7; 579 - 583], since the non-CO2-saturated oceans acted as net uptakers of CO2 [451; 452; 454; 579; 580; 581; 583; 585 - 590; 952; 1062, figure 6; 1093; 1406; 1480; 1919]. Instead human combustion of fossil fuels caused the vast majority of the recent CO2 rise [579, page 2; 580; 581; 584; 1062; 1093; 1406] (see the third and fourth panels of figure 16), driving some CO2 from the atmosphere into the oceans [451; 452; 454; 579 - 581; 583; 585 - 590; 952; 974; 1062, figure 6; 1093] (this follows from Henry's law, since that law implies that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere increasingly favors CO2 heading from the atmosphere into the oceans, over CO2 heading from the oceans into the atmosphere, for a given value for Henry's law constant at a given temperature [696, pages 429 - 434; 1678]). So when one adds all non-anthropogenic factors together, these non-anthropogenic factors serve as net uptakers of atmospheric CO2, not net releasers [580; 586; 587, table 1; 588 - 590; 1062, figure 6; 1093; 1094; 1406]. Thus the CO2-temperature lag does not apply to recent warming over the past century or so, and the CO2-warming relationship meets the primacy / temporality consideration for causal attribution.

A myth defender might still insist that the CO2 cannot cause warming, since CO2 increases lag temperature increase [77, page 81 and 82; 80; 86; 87, pages 17 and 78; 89, page 27; 92; 93, page 363; 96]. But as I discussed above, this objection fails since:
  1. The CO2 increase over the past couple of centuries did not lag the temperature increase, since humans, not temperature-dependent ocean and terrestrial mechanisms, caused the CO2 increase [579, page 2; 580; 581; 584; 586; 587, table 1; 588; 589; 640, page 1731; 974; 1062, figure 6; 1093; 1094; 1406]. So the temperature lag objection does not apply to recent warming [7; 579; 580; 640, page 1731; 932; 933].
  2. CO2 increases did not always lag temperature increases in the distant past [13; 14; 640, page 1730; 949, page 44; 1523, page 42].
  3. Positive feedback accounts for how increased CO2 can cause temperature increases that follow the CO2 increase, even if other factors cause the initial temperature increase [3 - 6; 640, page 1730; 642, page 435; 949, pages 44 and 45].

Alternatively, a myth proponent might object that the aforementioned positive feedback from figure 16 implies irreversible, runaway global warming, yet runaway global warming does not occur [79; 87; 630; 631; 632, pages 17 and 18; 1056]. But this objection also fails, since positive feedback does not imply a runaway warming [169; 367, page 1372; 644; 1069; 1431] for at least four reasons.

First, positive feedback eventually ceases. For instance, positive feedback from melting ice will stop once all the ice melts. Moreover, positive feedback from water vapor cannot drive the long-term warming needed for a runaway under temperatures in which water vapor condenses, as mentioned in section 2.2. Second, the Planck feedback eventually stops the warming [151, page 33; 169; 170, section 1; 202, section 2.6.1 on pages 89 - 90; 436 - 438; 1213; 1420] and Earth reaches an equilibrium state in which no further warming occurs in virtue of Earth releasing as much energy as it takes in [167; 349], as I discussed in section 2.2. So even though positive feedback augments CO2-induced warming at current and near-future atmospheric CO2 levels [11; 448 - 450; 669; 1069; 1829; 1859; 1965; 2108], the increased radiation release that results from warming [178; 443; 444] helps prevent runaway warming.

Third, oceans cease releasing CO2 into the atmosphere, once atmospheric CO2 reaches a certain elevated level, as per Henry's law (once again: increasing CO2 in the atmosphere increasingly favors CO2 heading from the atmosphere into the oceans, over CO2 heading from the oceans into the atmosphere, for a given value of Henry's law constant at a given temperature [696, pages 429 - 434; 1678]). That stops the positive feedback between CO2-induced ocean warming and warming-induced ocean release of CO2. Fourth, once equilibrium is reached and global warming ceases, positive feedbacks can drive long-term global cooling. Cooling can result from orbital forcing, which involves slight changes in Earth's orbit and tilt relative to the Sun [633; 634]. So orbital forcing causes slight cooling [633] or other factors reduce atmospheric CO2 levels [634 - 638]. This initiates a positive feedback in which colder oceans take up more CO2, which results in more ocean cooling, which results in more ocean uptake of CO2, and so on. Furthermore, cooling results in more frozen ice, which reflects incoming solar radiation (see section 2.2) and thus act as a positive feedback promoting cooling, resulting in more frozen ice, and so on [633; 638; 639].

Earth therefore ends up in a glacial cycle, instead of irreversible, runaway global warming, as depicted in the colder portions of the cycle shown in figure 2. Humans, however, increased CO2 levels [579, page 2; 580; 581; 584; 1854] to over 410ppm [117; 1406; 1408; 1409; 1432; 1620; 1837; 2096], much larger than the highest values of figure 2's cycle. This increased CO2 will result in near-future warming [11; 448 - 450; 669; 1069; 1829; 1859; 1965; 2108], postponing glacial cooling from the positive feedback loop [924; 925; 1308; 1843].

So though much of the paleoclimate evidence supports higher positive feedback with correspondingly higher climate sensitivity (see figure 7) [11; 644, pages 17 and 24; 1663], Earth's warming and cooling patterns differ from Venus' runaway warming [286; 644, pages 17 and 24; 645 - 648; 649, from 1:55 to 3:36] (as acknowledged by the climate scientist James Hansen [644, pages 17 and 24; 649, from 1:55 to 3:36]). Runaway warming on Earth will not occur for at least another billion years [169; 286; 644, pages 17 and 24; 646 - 648; 650, page 90; 672], when solar radiation increases enough to drive a massive energy imbalance on Earth. Therefore positive feedback does not entail runaway global warming [169; 367, page 1372; 644; 1069; 1431].

The aforementioned points on positive feedback and primacy/temporality are not ad hoc, since they are supported by evidence and apply to other causal relationships. For example, coagulation produces molecules that cause further coagulation via positive feedback [570, figure 1 on page 2465; 572, figure 2 on page 1434]. The activity of these molecules eventually runs out, limiting the positive feedback. Coagulation also produces inhibitors that act as a negative feedback overcoming the initial positive feedback, eventually limiting coagulation [570; 572]. Positive and negative feedback also govern the flow of sodium and potassium ions that generate electrical signals (action potentials) in the body. Positive feedback amplifies the initial signal by facilitating the flow of sodium ions, while negative feedback eventually stops the signal by limiting the flow of sodium ions and increasing the flow of potassium ions [1584 - 1586].

In summary: positive feedback helps explain how CO2 can cause subsequent warming when increased CO2 lags the initial warming [3 - 6; 640, page 1730; 642, page 435; 949, pages 44 and 45]. Moreover, increased CO2 did not lag recent industrial-era global warming, since humans, not temperature-dependent ocean and terrestrial mechanisms, caused the CO2 increase [579, page 2; 580; 581; 584; 586; 587, table 1; 588; 589; 640, page 1731; 974; 1062, figure 6; 1093; 1094; 1854]. This led to a rapid industrial-era increase in CO2 [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 202, chapter 3; 394; 684; 887; 1078; 1101; 1108; 1185; 1357; 1658; 1659; 1741; 1750, figure 4a, as depicted in 1816; 1754; 1787; 1831], followed by a rapid, hockey stick pattern of global warming [761; 995; 998; 1017; 1018; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409; 1524; 1807], as per section 2.7. This warming trend was superimposed on smaller temperature trends from other factors (ex: changes in solar output), such that the rate of warming was not always constant, as discussed in section 2.10, figure 22, and figure 23. So the CO2-temperature relationship meets the primacy/temporality metric [373; 653; 1687, from 4:23 to 4:44].


Section 2.9: Specificity


Forensic science and pathology depend on the idea that different causes of death produce different effects on the body; therefore one can infer the cause of death by examining effects on the body [658; 659]. For instance, the effects of death by blunt force trauma [658; 659] differ from the effects of death by smoking [655 - 657; 737], with biochemical/biological models positing mechanisms that result in specific smoking-induced effects [656, figure 2 on page 1057 and figure on page 1062; 736, figures 2 on page L615 and figure 3 on page L616] (despite US Vice President Mike Pence's infamously false [1880 - 1884] claim that smoking doesn't kill [384, from 4:08 to 4:43; 651; 652], and the denialism on smoking's health risks discussed in section 2.5).

Analogous points apply to science in general, including climate science, as noted by various climate scientists [6; 95; 653; 1119 - 1121; 1355; 1356; 1358]. Different causes of global warming produce different, specific effects; thus one can infer the cause of global warming by examining specific, model-based, predicted effects [56; 373; 544 - 546; 653; 685; 687; 688], just as one can infer that smoking killed [655 - 657; 737] someone by examining specific, model-based [656, figure 2 on page 1057 and figure on page 1062; 736, figures 2 on page L615 and figure 3 on page L616], predicted effects on the body. So complaining that climate science cannot use models would be as misguided as complaining that other scientific fields, such as biochemistry [656, figure 2 on page 1057 and figure on page 1062; 736, figures 2 on page L615 and figure 3 on page L616] and epidemiology, cannot use models. It is reminiscent of the tobacco industry and its defenders complaining about epidemiological models, in order to avoid epidemiological evidence of the health risks of smoking [332; 1952; 1953; 1954, page 66]. This may partially explain why the medical researcher John Ioannidis places the science on man-made climate change on par with the science showing that smoking kills people [498, from 17:17 to 18:30] (despite how Internet critics/denialists often abuse [505 - 511] Ioannidis' work [501 - 504] in order to illegitimately undermine public confidence in climate science). The National Academy of Sciences makes a similar point on the strength of the evidence for anthropogenic CO2-induced warming, in comparison to other topics in science [499, pages 21 and 22 in chapter 1, and page 28 in chapter 2].

As mentioned above, CO2-induced warming comes with a number of specific, predicted effects. For example, CO2-induced global warming should warm the surface [653; 660, table 1 of page 5; 682; 687; 689] and the troposphere, a lower layer of the atmosphere [653; 660, table 1 of page 5; 682; 683; 686; 687; 689; 1823]. Solar-induced warming also warms the surface [653; 660, table 1 of page 5; 687; 689; 701, figure 8] and the troposphere [653; 660, table 1 of page 5; 686; 687; 689; 1154, figure 3b and page 2048; 701, figure 8]. Solar-induced and CO2-induced warming, however, differ in their effects higher in the atmosphere. CO2-induced warming results in cooling of the stratosphere, a layer of the atmosphere higher than the troposphere [36; 197, figure 4; 198, pages 101 and 102; 228; 660; 682; 683; 685; 690 - 695; 696, page 176; 697, page 409; 698 - 700; 701, figure 16 on page 250 and page 251; 702; 743; 1053; 1104, figure 13; 1105, plate 2 on page 6837; 1106, figure 20 on page 28; 1124; 1147, pages S19 and S20; 1152; 1676; 1788, page S19; 1823; 1951, page 27.42 and 27.43]. Ozone reduction, due to factors such as human production of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) [682; 698 - 700; 703 - 709; 743, pages 599 and 600; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1823; 1951, pages 27.31, 27.32, and 27.44], also causes strong stratospheric cooling [660; 682; 685; 686; 690; 691; 695; 696, page 65; 698 - 700; 701, figure 18; 702; 710 - 715; 743; 1053; 1106, figure 20 on page 28; 1124; 1147, pages S19 and S20; 1676; 1788, page S19; 1823; 1951, pages 27.42 and 27.43], as I discuss in "Myth: The Sun Caused Recent Global Warming and the Tropical Stratosphere Warmed". In contrast, solar-induced warming does not strongly cool the stratosphere [36; 288; 600; 653; 683; 686; 689; 692; 701; figure 8; 714; 716 - 718; 1104, figure 10; 1105, plate 3 on page 6837; 1106, figure 20 on page 28; 1154, figure 3b and page 2048; 1823; 1951, page 27.42], as discussed in figure 17 below:


Figure 17: Summary of factors influencing global climate, and the predicted effects of these factors. The top two rows are the primary non-anthropogenic/natural forcing factors, while the other rows summarize the main anthropogenic factors. Some of the listed effects last only a few years (ex: volcanic warming of the stratosphere), while other effects last longer (ex: the effects of well-mixed greenhouse gases last for decades to centuries). Note that CO2-induced global warming would cool the stratosphere, while solar-induced warming would warm the stratosphere [660, table 1 on page 5].

Ozone depletion [228; 682; 685; 686; 690; 691; 695; 698 - 700; 702; 712 - 716; 743; 1053; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1788, page S19; 1823; 1951, pages 27.42 and 27.43] and increased CO2 [36; 228; 660; 682; 683; 685; 686; 690 - 695; 698 - 700; 702; 743; 1053; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1152; 1788, page S19; 1823; 1951, pages 27.42 and 27.43] caused stratospheric cooling up to the mid-1990s [193; 228; 232; 233; 660, pages 8, 9, 12, and 13; 682; 685; 686; 694; 695; 698 - 700; 702; 713; 714; 716; 719 - 725; 743; 1053; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1152; 1788, pages S19 and S20; 1823; 1951, pages 27.42 and 27.43], as predicted by the scientific community during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s [137, from 26:23 to 29:54; 688; 701, figure 16 on page 250, page 251, figure 18 on page 252, and page 252; 710; 711; 726 - 729; 1502, figure 14 on page 518]. Ozone stabilization (in response to anti-CFC international agreements such as the Montreal Protocol [703 - 709; 743, pages 599 and 600; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1736; 1823; 1951, pages 27.31, 27.32, and 27.44]) mitigated [690; 691; 700; 702; 712 - 716; 743; 1053; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1736; 1788, page S19; 1823] stratospheric cooling from the mid-1990s to the present [660; 694; 700; 702; 715; 716; 731, figure 18; 743; 1053; 1124; 1147, page S19; 1152; 1661, figure 11; 1788, pages S19 and S20; 1823], though post-1997 stratospheric cooling remains in many data-sets [690; 695; 700; 712 - 714; 720 - 725; 731, figure 18; 738 - 740, using 741, as per 742; 1053, figure 1; 1109; 1123, figure 5; 1147, page S20; 1152; 1661, figure 11; 1676; 1788, pages S19 and S20; 1823], especially higher in the stratosphere [690; 695; 700; 712 - 714; 720 - 723; 725; 731, figure 18; 738 - 740, using 741, as per 742; 1053, figure 1; 1109; 1123, figure 5; 1147, page S20; 1152; 1661, figure 11; 1676; 1788, pages S19 and S20; 1823] where CO2-induced cooling is more pronounced [197, figure 4; 690; 198, pages 101 and 102; 712; 699; 743; 1053; 1124, section 1; 1147, page S20; 1676; 1788, page S19; 1823] (I present some published images of this in a multi-tweet Twitter thread [1212]).

This is in agreement with scientific predictions made in the 1970s and 1980s [197, figure 4; 198, pages 101 and 102; 701, figure 16 on page 250 and page 251; 710; 711; 744]. For instance, since at least the 1960s, scientists have known that CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases with increasing stratospheric height [197, figure 4; 198, pages 101 and 102; 701, figure 16 on page 250 and page 251]; in 1980, this point was even acknowledged by scientists working for the fossil fuel company Exxon [745, figure 3; 1439, figure 4], consistent with energy industry scientists' acceptance of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change [745 - 750; 973; 1171, page 14; 1192; 1439; 1440, page App. 637, citing 1442, page 221; 1441, page 021, citing 1442, page 221; 1925]. The tropopause, a region between the troposphere and stratosphere, also rose [686; 1129 - 1135; {1143 - 1146; 1697 {generated using 741, as per 742 (based on a tropical tropopause at an atmospheric pressure level of 150mb or 150hPa, as defined by: 227; 1140 - 1142)}}; 1647], consistent with stratospheric cooling caused by ozone depletion and increased CO2 [686; 726; 1136 - 1138; 1139, page 1251; 1823].

So the stratospheric cooling pattern, combined with observed warming of the troposphere [193; 223 - 225; 226, figure 3; 227 - 233; 296; 297; 700; 764; 765; 1788, pages S17 - S20] and surface [493; 547; 548; 751 - 764; 981; 1013; 1053; 1172; 1173], matches the profile one would expect of CO2-induced warming combined with decreased (and then stabilizing) stratospheric ozone levels, as shown in figure 17. Increased CO2 also contributed to the observed cooling of the mesosphere and thermosphere, atmospheric layers above the stratosphere, consistent with CO2-induced global warming [682; 702; 792 - 800; 801, page 2390; 802 - 804; 1152; 1158; 1191; 1676; 1679; 1823]. And the regional pattern of warming and precipitation matches what one would expect from CO2-induced warming, instead of warming caused by other factors, such as increasing levels of solar-radiation-absorbing black carbon aerosols, increasing solar output, and climate variability [653; 687; 805 - 807; 808, page 946; 809; 1080; 1553; 1748; 1801].

CO2-induced warming and solar-induced warming also yield specific predictions for energy balance. If increased solar output caused most of the recent global warming, then more shorter-wavelength radiation should reach Earth, as I discussed in section 2.2. This radiation increase did not occur [811 - 815], as I go over in section 2.10. In contrast, if increased CO2 caused recent global warming, then there should be increased absorbance in specific wavelengths of energy that CO2 is predicted to absorb, along with increased radiation in the wavelengths CO2 emits. This greenhouse-gas-induced increase in absorption and emission occurred [138 - 141; 145], shifting Earth's energy balance [37; 142 - 144; 1221], as per section 2.2. Thus Earth's energy balance matches what one would predict for CO2-induced warming, but not solar-induced warming. I discuss other aspects of this energy imbalance in section 2.10.

And as I discussed in section 2.2, CO2-induced warming reduces the amount of ice reflecting solar radiation and impacts cloud reflection/absorption of solar radiation [179; 1122]. Changing cloud cover did not contribute much to the previously discussed multi-decadal stratospheric cooling, especially higher in the stratosphere [693; 719, pages 7706 and 7707; 1127]. Changing cloud cover as a driver of warming also fails to adequately explain the timing of warming; it strains credulity [373; 653; 1687, from 4:23 to 4:44] to claim that clouds just coincidentally changed in a pattern matching the rapid, industrial-era CO2 increase [7 - 10; 34 - 74; 84; 202, chapter 3; 394; 684; 887; 1078; 1101; 1108; 1185; 1357; 1658; 1659; 1741; 1750, figure 4a, as depicted in 1816; 1754; 1787; 1831], such that changing cloud cover caused most of the rapid, industrial-era, hockey stick pattern of warming [761; 995; 998; 1017; 1018; 1023, figure 5.7 on page 409; 1524; 1807] from section 2.7. Thus increased CO2 better accounts for atmospheric temperature trends than do changes in cloud cover alone, even in light of how CO2-induced changes in cloud cover affect Earth's energy balance.

Moreover, the rate of daytime warming vs. nighttime warming differs between CO2-induced warming vs. solar-induced warming. Increased solar output would warm days more than nights, since the Sun shines during the day. This would increase the diurnal temperature range (DTR), which measures the difference between daily maximum temperature vs. daily minimum temperature [84; 817 - 821]; regional differences also affect DTR [817; 819; 822 - 824; 1207]. In contrast, CO2-induced warming should decrease the DTR, by warming nights more than days [84; 820; 821; 825 - 827; 1208 - 1211; 1645]. Increased CO2 also impacts clouds [179; 186; 214; 1122], and these cloud changes can then influence DTR [821; 825 - 827; 1646]. On shorter, non-multi-decadal time periods, DTR can fluctuate up [1644] or down [1123; 1612] in response to shorter-term factors. However, overall DTR decreased from the 1950s [84, figure 2; 818, figure 3; 820; 821; 823; 824; 828; 1125; 1207; 1210; 1645; 1646], consistent with CO2-induced warming [84; 820; 821; 825 - 827; 1208 - 1211; 1645] and arguing against a large contribution from solar-induced warming [84; 817; 827].

Deeper ocean warming offers another contrast between greenhouse-gas-induced warming and some other types of warming. For example, during the warm El Niño phase of an ocean cycle known as ENSO (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation), the transfer of energy from the deeper oceans to the surface [144; 1128; 1161; 2115 - 2117] causes temporary surface warming. So El Niño temporarily decreases ocean heat content [144; 1128; 2117; 2118], as it warms the surface. In contrast, greenhouse gas increases warm the deeper ocean, especially the top 700 meters or 2000 meters [51; 142 - 144; 1081; 1128; 1161; 1221; 1378; 1575; 1801; 1847; 1872; 1924; 1957; 1958; 2022, figure 3b; 2023]. This observed pattern of deeper ocean warming helps rule out internal variability, such as ENSO, as a primary cause of the observed long-term surface warming trend [51; 1801; 1957], as per "Myth: El Niño Caused Post-1997 Global Warming".

Thus deeper ocean warming, the energy balance, DTR, the regional pattern of warming and precipitation, stratospheric cooling (with surface and tropospheric warming, along with a rising tropopause), mesospheric cooling, and thermospheric cooling are specific effects that jointly point to increased CO2 as the predominant cause of recent global warming. These and other signs, or fingerprints, help distinguish one cause of warming from another cause of warming, as noted by the IPCC [373, page 894; 1232, page 703; 1757, section 12.4.2.1 on page 718].


Section 2.10: Coherence with other lines of evidence / exclusion of other likely causes


In section 2.6 I discussed how no biological gradient manifests between vaccinations and autism, undermining the claim that vaccines cause autism. But vaccinations are not the only proposed cause of changing autism rates; other causal hypotheses compete with the vaccine hypotheses offered by anti-vaxxers / vaccine denialists. Take the following well-supported associations with increasing rates of autism diagnosis:
  1. Increasing age of parents at the time the child is conceived or born [766 - 775] (though a recent paper disputes this point [776]), combined with genetic (or transcriptomic) factors [777 - 784; 966]
  2. No change in the underlying rate of autism [785 - 788]; instead reported rates of autism increased due to changes in the diagnostic criteria for autism, along with more attention, resources, medical training, etc., focused on diagnosing autism [785 - 791]
So while the scientific evidence conflicts, or remains incoherent, with the anti-vaxxer's causal hypotheses (as I discussed in section 2.6), the evidence largely coheres with the factors listed above.

Coherence and incoherence with evidence apply to other scientific/pseudoscientific topics as well. For instance, young Earth creationists claim that a deity made the universe and Earth less than 11,000 years ago; thus animals did not evolve over millions of years [829; 830; 832 - 834]. This claim runs afoul of numerous lines of evidence showing that Earth, the universe, and life on Earth existed more than 11,000 years ago [830; 862, table 4; 863 - 871; 1363]. This evidence argues against the creationist's claim that a deity caused Earth and the universe to begin existing less than 11,000 years ago.

Just as evidence remains incoherent with the creationist's causal claim, evidence can also exclude, or cohere with, proposed causes of global warming. AGW (anthropogenic global warming) denialists often evade this evidence by using the same nonsensical tactics creationists use to dodge evidence [ex: 1075; 1076]; so these two forms of science denialism are often compared [271; 272; 274; 275; 277; 278; 331; 495; 831; 1190; 1266; 1851, from 15:33 to 17:07; 1852; 1856, from 10:11 to 14:31]. A parallel point applies for comparisons between AGW denialism vs. the aforementioned vaccine denialism [271 - 278; 1174, page 26; 1675; 1755; 1851, from 15:33 to 17:07; 1852; 1856, from 10:11 to 14:31]; these comparisons are sometimes made by the denialists themselves [1095; 1096], with vaccine denialists publishing in the same disreputable venues as AGW denialists and AIDS denialists [265 - 269; 1194 - 1202].

And as illustrated in the above case of vaccine denialism, evidence that conflicts with one causal claim can be consistent with a different causal claim. The causal relationship between CO2 and warming, for example, coheres with a number lines of evidence. Increased CO2 accounts for the specific phenomena I mentioned in section 2.9, including surface and tropospheric warming, in conjunction with cooling of the stratosphere [36; 228; 660; 682; 683; 685; 686; 690 - 695; 698 - 700; 702; 743; 1053; 1788, pages S17 - S20; 1823], mesosphere, and thermosphere [682; 702; 792 - 800; 801, page 2390; 802 - 804; 1152; 1158; 1191; 1823]. Solar-induced warming from increasing solar radiation would not explain this pattern of warming and cooling [36; 288; 600; 653; 683; 686; 689; 692; 714; 716 - 718; 1823].

Increases in greenhouse gases such as CO2 also help account for sea level rise [469; 470; 472 - 480; 1604] and other parameters [1080], such as the observed pattern of ocean warming [51; 142 - 144; 1081; 1128; 1161; 1221; 1378; 1575; 1801; 1847; 1872; 1924; 1957; 1958; 2022, figure 3b; 2023]. During the pre-industrial period, human land use and agricultural practices increased CO2 and methane levels in a way that mitigated global cooling, as per the work of Ruddiman [2026 - 2033]. Furthermore, CO2 and other greenhouse gases impact climate on Venus, Mars, Titan, and other astronomical bodies [137, from 9:13 to 10:28; 151, page 36; 316; 318 - 320], as I discussed in section 2.4. Thus the causal relationship between CO2 and warming coheres with a wide range of evidence.

On a geologic time-scale, increased CO2 helps explain warming in the distant past [11; 17; 18; 447; 673, section 5.5; 872 - 874; 949; 1055; 1069; 1515; 1589; 1663; 1965], as I discussed in section 2.8 and as illustrated by the paleoclimate studies in figure 7. To counter this point, some myth proponents [92; 93, page 361; 665; 666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 667, from 03:28 to 07:00; 668, from 00:00 to 10:00; 677, from 05:41 to 10:00; 678 - 681; 950; 978, figure 115; 982, from 09:28 to 12:09] (such as Patrick Moore [93, page 361; 666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 667, from 03:28 to 07:00] and Christopher Monckton [666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 668, from 00:00 to 10:00; 677, from 06:26 to 06:42]) offer the following graph:

Image result for This graph shows global levels of CO2 and the global temperature for the past 600 million years. The correlation between the two parameters is mixed at best,
Figure 18: An out-dated [735, figure 15 and 16] comparison of average global temperature to CO2 levels in the atmosphere, across various period in Earth's history [94; 940]. The CO2 analysis comes from Berner [874], while the temperature plot comes from Scotese's [873, figure 2 on page 101] adaptation of data from Frakes et al. [872].

Figure 18 remains deeply flawed, since it does not account for solar output. To put this mistake into context, imagine if a child ran an experiment to estimate how water levels influence plant growth. The child runs different trials, with each trial providing a different amount of water. However, the child does not control for the amount of sunlight, nor does the child make sure that the plants received about the same amount of sunlight in each trial. The child then concludes that water levels do not affect plant growth, since the child found no significant correlation between plant growth and the amount of water given to the plants. Of course, the child's conclusion is wrong, since the child did not account for changes in sunlight between the trials.

Thus the child did not account for their control variable (changing amount of sunlight), leading them to falsely conclude there was no relationship between their independent variable (changing water levels) and their dependent variable (plant growth). Defenders of figure 18 make an analogous mistake, if they use figure 18 to conclude that CO2 does not cause warming, without controlling for changes in solar output. Those who use figure 18 do not account for their control variable (changing solar output), leading them to falsely conclude there was no relationship between their independent variable (changing CO2 levels) and their dependent variable (changing temperature). W. Jackson David makes this mistake when he claims increased CO2 does not correlate with increased temperature on geological time-scales [1550; 1551].

This mistake can also result in one falsely believing that since non-CO2 factors, such as solar output, affect temperature trends, then CO2 does not significantly affect temperature trends. That would be on par with a kid believing that since the amount of sunlight affects plant growth, then water levels do not significantly affect plant growth. And as I discussed in section 2.5, that child-like mistake is also akin to thinking that since multiple factors contribute to cancer rates, then smoking does not affect cancer rates. As with the tobacco industry's nonsensical reasoning on smoking-induced cancer [272; 273; 970, Discussion section], figure 18's child-like mistake implicitly involves a double-standard / special pleading, in which one demands evidence from a perfect scenario in which only one causal factor is at work in order for one to accept a proposed cause, while not making the same ridiculous demand on another topic.

So how could anyone make the obvious, child-like mistake implicit in figure 18? The data sources [872, figure 2 on page 101; 874] for figure 18 did not make figure 18. This child-like, flawed comparison was instead made, or copied, by non-experts [92; 93, page 361; 665; 666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 667, from 03:28 to 07:00; 668, from 00:00 to 10:00; 677, from 05:41 to 10:00; 678 - 681] such as Patrick Moore [93, page 361; 666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 667, from 03:28 to 07:00] and Christopher Monckton [666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 668, from 00:00 to 10:00; 677, from 06:26 to 06:42]. So the data sources for figure 18 are not to blame, as Peter Hadfield (a.k.a. potholer54) points out [666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 667, from 03:28 to 07:00; 668, from 00:00 to 10:00].

For instance, Berner, the source for figure 18's CO2 data, notes that solar radiation was lower in the distant past:

"Ws = factor expressing the effect on global mean temperature of the increase in solar radiation over geological time [874, page 184]"

Frakes et al., Scotese's source for the temperature analysis used in figure 18, also mention decreased solar output with higher CO2 levels in the distant past [872, figure 1 on page 2]. So they are aware that one needs to account for changing solar output on a geological time-scale. Furthermore, Frakes et al. accept greenhouse warming caused by increased CO2:

"Palaeoclimates are examined in terms of Cold and Warm modes--phases during which the Earth's climates were either relatively cool with ice forming in high latitudes or when high levels of CO2 led to "greenhouse" warmings [emphasis added] and temperate floras and faunas inhabited polar regions [872, abstract]."

"The Earth's global mean surface temperature depends on its orbital parameters, the luminosity of the Sun, and the planet's distance from the Sun. It also depends on the planetary albedo (surface and cloud reflectivity) and on the composition and dynamics of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. 
In the Earth's atmosphere the dominant greenhouse gas is CO2 [emphasis added]. The CO2 content of the atmosphere has changed with time in response to changes in the rates and patterns of tectonic activity [...] Over geologic time these changes led to variations in the Earth's climate [emphasis added] [872, pages 1 - 2]."

Berner also acknowledges greenhouse-gased-induced warming, and the correlation between CO2 vs. temperature:

"This means that over the long term there is indeed a correlation between CO2 and paleotemperature, as manifested by the atmospheric greenhouse effect [874, page 201]."

(I discuss the atmospheric greenhouse effect further in section 2.2).

Scotese confirms this greenhouse-gas-induced warming when he presents the temperature data which figure 18 used:

"Geological indicators of climate and palaeontological evidence suggest that Earth may have experienced 'runaway' greenhouse warming at the end of the Palaeozoic.
[...]
The pattern of the Permo-Triassic extinction seems to fit with an episode of super-greenhouse global warming [873, pages 101 - 102 and 110]."

Scotese's Permo-Triassic statement [873, page 110] agrees with subsequent research linking the Permian extinction to increases in greenhouse gases such as CO2 [455 - 458]. However, his statement regarding Paleozoic warming being a "runaway" [873, page 102] conflicts with the preponderance of the scientific evidence arguing against Venus-like runaway warming in Earth's past [286; 644, pages 17 and 24; 645 - 648; 649, from 1:55 to 3:36], as I discussed in section 2.8 (though Scotese may have placed "runaway" in quotation marks [873, page 102] to indicate that he did not mean a Venus-like runaway).

Scotese recently provided an improved update of the temperature change estimate from figure 18 [735, figures 3, 15 and 16]. This update includes much of the recent global warming of the past couple of centuries, warming largely absent from figure 18 [735, figures 3, 16, and page 26]. And in presenting this update, Scotese acknowledges greenhouse warming caused by human release of CO2:

"But Nature may not have its way. Things have changed. We have changed things. The addition of CO2 to the atmosphere during the last 200 years of human industry has amplified this natural warming trend and the average global temperature has risen rapidly [735, page 2]."

(In section 2.5, I further discussed Scotese's statements on the relationship between the magnitude of recent warming vs. warming in the distant past.)

Therefore, despite myth proponents' abuse of figure 18 [92; 93, page 361; 665; 666, from 7:32 to 11:03; 667, from 03:28 to 07:00; 668, from 00:00 to 10:00; 677, from 05:41 to 10:00; 678 - 681], the original sources for figure 18's data confirm the correlation between CO2 and temperature, consistent with greenhouse-gas-induced warming [735, page 2; 872, abstract, pages 1 and 2; 873, pages 101 - 102 and 110; 874, page 201]. And the sources do not make figure 18's child-like mistake of arguing against a CO2-temperature correlation by ignoring changes in solar output [872, figure 1 on page 2; 874, page 184]. The climate scientist Dana Royer corrects figure 18's mistake [16, figure 2 on page 5668; 810] with the following graph (made for a scientific conference) that depicts how the combined impact of solar output and CO2 accounts correlates with long-term temperature changes:

Related image

Figure 19: Correlation between temperature and the combined response from CO2, solar radiation, the carbon cycle, the sulfur cycle, and weathering of volcanic rocks [810]. The red line represents a temperature proxy based on oxygen isotope levels [15, figure 4]. The black line uses estimates of CO2's radiative forcing and changing solar output, combined with a GEOCARBSULFvolc analysis (a model-based estimate using proxies [97, figure 4d; 98, figure 1; 1515]) that estimates the carbon cycle, the sulfur cycle [877; 878], and weathering of volcanic rocks [875; 876].

(It would be self-defeating to employ figure 18 and then complain that GEOCARBSULFvolc uses a model, since figure 18 also uses a model {GEOCARBIII, an earlier, less advanced version of GEOCARBSULFvolc} [874; 877] to produce figure 18's CO2 line.
This undermines the position of the contrarian [1006; 1038; 1367] Javier since, in a recent blogpost at Judith Curry's blog, Javier uses [978, figure 115] the older GEOCARBIII results [1007, figure 2E on page 92] to argue against increased CO2 as the predominant cause of recent global warming [978, figure 115]. In addition to committing the child-like mistake I previously discussed, Javier also uses [978, figure 115] a flawed temperature change estimate [1007, figure 2D on page 92], in contrast the estimate represented by the red line above [15; 16]. Subsequent research used this revised temperature estimate [15; 16] and analyses such as GEOCARBSULFvolc [1515; 1516] to show that greenhouse gases (including CO2 and methane) drove climate changes in the distant past, contrary to what Javier claimed [978]. In opposition to this, another paper used the outdated temperature estimate and GEOCARBIII to argue that cosmic rays likely impacted climate in the distant past [1008], though more recent research disputes this [1536; 1537]. Moreover, cosmic ray effects do not explain recent global warming [812; 813; 890 - 895; 937; 1009; 1538; 1539; 1824; 1840].)

In response to figure 19, a myth defender might argue that scientists cannot know whether the Sun or CO2 caused recent global warming, since solar output and CO2 do not correlate with every temperature change in figure 19. But this objection fails. To say otherwise would be as implausible as saying that police cannot know that arsonists caused a recent forest fire, unless police can explain every forest fire that ever happened [6; 1355; 1356; 1358]. Such a claim is implausible because police can find clear evidence that arsonists, as opposed to a lightning strike, caused the recent fire, even if police lack an explanation for some fires in the distant past [881, chapter 5; 882, chapter 3]. The arsonists do not need to cause every forest fire in the past, in order for the arsonists to cause a recent forest fire.

Analogously, scientists can present evidence that increased CO2, as opposed to increased solar output, caused most of the recent global warming, even if scientists lack an explanation for some warming in the distant past (I went over some of this evidence throughout this blogpost, especially in section 2.9, and I will present further evidence later in this section). And CO2 can cause recent warming, even if CO2 did not cause every instance of warming in the past [6, page 450; 39; 61; 879, section 1; 880; 1597; 1598].

Alternatively, myth proponents might claim that figure 19's correlation is predominately due to solar output, not CO2. If this is true, then this would argue in favor of increasing solar output as the predominant cause of long-term warming, not CO2. But this objection fails since solar output steadily increased on the time-scale of hundreds of millions of years (which has various implications [16, figure 2 on page 5668; 669, citing 670, pages 21 - 34; 671 - 676, 872, figure 1.1 on page 2; 1068, figure 2; 1157, pages 98 - 99]), yet temperature in figure 19 did not steadily increase. So the correlation with temperature does not depend on just solar output, and CO2 helps explain warming in the geologic past [11; 17; 18; 673, section 5.5] in the context of decreased solar activity [16, figure 2 on page 5668; 669; 672; 673, section 5.5; 675; 676; 872, figure 1.1 on page 2; 1157, pages 98 - 99]. Evidence from the geologic record therefore coheres with the theory of CO2-induced warming.

The solar-induced warming hypothesis fares especially poorly when applied to post-1950s global warming, as I discussed in section 2.9 of this post and in section 2.3 of "Myth: The Sun Caused Recent Global Warming and the Tropical Stratosphere Warmed". The solar-induced warming hypothesis does not cohere with evidence such as:
  1. Significant global warming remains even after correcting for total solar irradiance (TSI) [71; 73; 288; 487; 883; 884; 1357; 1659].
  2. The relationship between solar output and global warming fails a number of statistical tests and model-based tests [41 - 43; 71; 394; 684; 812; 885 - 889; 1357].
  3. Solar output has not correlated well with recent global warming [811 - 815; 1052; 1222; 1357; 1511; 1741; 1758; 1876]. An indirect test of this is cosmic ray exposure, since TSI should limit the ability of cosmic rays to reach Earth [812; 813; 890 - 895; 1538; 1539]. Yet Earth's cosmic ray exposure did not significantly decrease during post-1970s global warming [812; 813; 815; 890; 891; 893; 894, section 5; 1538; 1539], providing further evidence that TSI did not significantly increase during this warming. Solar flux also decreased [812; 815; 1318; 1540; 1541; 1542, using 741, as per 742], consistent with decreasing TSI. Nicola Scafetta attempts to get around this by claiming TSI increased from 1970 - 2000 and decreased post-2000. He states that these TSI changes correlate with 1970 - 2000 surface warming and a nearly stable 2000 - 2018 temperature trend, while claiming this temperature pattern conflicts with model-based estimates of CO2-induced, man-made warming [1777, page 12; 1875, page 22]. Scafetta's argument fails since statistically significant warming occurred from 2000 - 2018 [1318; 1776; 1782 - 1785, generated using 741, as per 742], at a rate roughly on par with, or greater than, 1970 - 2000 warming [1318; 1776; 1778 - 1781, generated using 741, as per 742], as I discuss in a separate Twitter thread [1775]. Thus, by Scafetta's own reasoning [1777, page 12; 1875, page 22], the post-2000 significant warming trend undermines his TSI analysis, just as a post-2000 stable trend would have supported his analysis. This result is consistent with Scafetta's history of false predictions on temperature trends, as covered in section 2.1 of "Myth: The IPCC's 2007 ~0.2°C/decade Model-based Projection Failed and Judith Curry's Forecast was More Reliable", "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades", section 2.2, section 2.5, and the caption of figure 20. Scafetta's TSI estimate also conflicts with a number of other estimates based on satellite data, sunspot records, etc. [811 - 815; 1052; 1222; 1357; 1511; 1741; 1758; 1876], and it abuses [1875, page 21] an outdated [1511; 1876; 1878; 1879] 1993 [1877, figure 10 on page 18,904] analysis from Hoyt and Schatten which I discuss in more detail in section 2.3 of "Myth: The Sun Caused Recent Global Warming and the Tropical Stratosphere Warmed".
Given these aforementioned points, scientists project that greenhouse-gas-induced warming should overcome the cooling effect of future shorter-term decreases in solar activity [926 - 931; 1262; 1610, discussed in 1611; 2047; 2048; 2097]. If this occurs, then this would provide further evidence coherent with the CO2-induced warming and incoherent with increased solar output as the primary cause of recent warming.

Myth proponents could, of course, propose any number of ad hoc, alternative causal explanations for industrial-era warming and the associated effects discussed in section 2.9. Peter Hadfield aptly, and humorously, calls this ABCD: Anything But Carbon Dioxide [917, from 1:01 to 2:32]. This is reminiscent of the tobacco industry explaining cancer and coronary heart disease with ABS (Anything But Smoking) [272; 970], AIDS denialists explaining AIDS with ABHIV (Anything But HIV) [22; 111; 271 - 274; 816; 934; 1266], armchair non-experts explaining trends in Australian bushfires with ABCC (Anything But Climate Change) [2035, from 22:14 to 28:38], and so on. One should expect such behavior from denialists [272; 970; 1684 - 1686] using motivated reasoning and special pleading to avoid accepting an evidence-based explanation they find ideologically-inconvenient [300; 938; 1556, from 37:54 to 44:55, discussing 1606; 1606; 1608; 1609; 1684 - 1686; 1842].

But if proponents expect their proposed alternative to supplant the CO2-based explanation, then their alternative explanation needs at least as much evidence in support of it as the CO2-based explanation. For example, their alternative requires confirmed predictions [137, from 38:46 to 39:15; 1687, from 4:23 to 4:44], as per section 2.9. It also needs to fulfill the other causal considerations summarized in section 1, at least as well as the CO2-based explanation does. One cannot simply invent an explanation with little-to-no evidence, and expect it to be taken as seriously as an explanation supported by overwhelming evidence [137, from 38:46 to 39:15; 1687, from 4:23 to 4:44], regardless of whether the topic is explaining industrial-era warming, explaining AIDS, explaining cancer, or some other topic.

Scientific evidence also remains incoherent with a number of other proposed explanations of most of the recent, multi-decadal global warming. These failed causal explanations include cosmic rays [812; 813; 890 - 895; 937; 1009; 1422 - 1425; 1538; 1539; 1824; 1840] and ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) [1422 - 1425], along with ocean cycles such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [51; 71; 73; 288; 487; 883; 884; 896 - 898; 1260] and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO); I discuss ENSO more in "Myth: El Niño Caused Post-1997 Global Warming" and the AMO more in the caption of figure 20 below. Moreover, Qing-Bin Lu's CFC-induced warming hypothesis [1427, figure 12 on page 7; 1428] falsely forecast no global warming, when global warming actually occurred, as I discuss in "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades" and a separate Twitter thread [1429].

And just as accounting for changing solar output in figure 19 revealed the relationship between CO2 and temperature in the deep past, correcting for proposed causes of warming leaves a recent CO2-induced warming trend. This recent trend should be more-linear [72; 485 - 491; 1413, figure 4; 1415], as I discussed in section 2.6. Figure 20 below illustrates this point, by showing one depiction of how ocean cycles [972], changes in solar output, and volcanic effects operate in conjunction with more-linear CO2-induced warming. Figure 22 presents a more recent analysis [1078] that takes into account the smaller role of AMO [51; 66; 900; 904; 910 - 913; 1101; 1357] and the correspondingly larger role of the cooling effect of sulfate aerosols [133, pages 1328 and 1329; 137, from 40:29 to 45:59; 170, section 1; 355; 357; 684; 905; 906, page 5827; 907; 1014; 1107, as per 1108, section 26.2; 1150, pages 695 - 701; 1153; 1336; 1527; 1528; 1860; 1975; 2111]; figure 23 builds on this, with more recent estimates of early 20th century warming and the impact of aerosols. Figure 21 depicts the observed surface warming trend, without correcting for these factors:


Figure 20: (a) Relative global surface temperature trend from 1856 - 2010 after correcting for TSI (total solar irradiance, a measure of the solar radiation reaching Earth), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and volcanic aerosols. The upper-left, boxed inset depicts a measurement of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), a cycle that affects ocean temperatures. (b) Global surface temperature trend after correcting for the AMO, TSI, ENSO, and volcanic aerosols [487].

It's unclear whether the AMO is an independent cause of ocean warming vs. the AMO being a type of ocean warming caused by other factors [899 - 902; 903, page 171; 1659; 1667 - 1673; 1682; 2021]. There is also some dispute over whether the AMO impacts temperature as strongly as is shown panel (b) [51; 904]. For instance, sulfate aerosols, instead of just the AMO, partially offset CO2-induced warming during the 1940s to 1970s [133, pages 1328 and 1329; 137, from 40:29 to 45:59; 170, section 1; 355; 357; 684; 905; 906, page 5827; 907; 1014; 1107, as per 1108, section 26.2; 1150, pages 695 - 701; 1153; 1336; 1527; 1528; 1659; 1667; 1682; 1975; 2111]. Some sources attribute much of the recent warming to the AMO [487; 908; 909], while other sources argue that the AMO does not account for much of the recent warming [51; 66; 71; 900; 910 - 913; 1078; 1101; 1357; 1597; 1659; 2021]. In either case, greenhouse gases such as CO2 substantially contributed to recent global warming [66; 70; 71; 899 - 901; 904; 910; 914 - 916; 1078; 1101; 1357; 1597; 1659; 1754]. 

And since the post-1964 multi-decadal global warming trend extends over more than 50 years (see figures 1, 21, 22, and 23, among other sources [226; 760; 1013, figure 1b; 1147, page S17; 1148; 1149 and 1151, generated using 741, as per 742; 1339, figures 1 and 2; 1543, figures 1A and 1B; 1613, table 1; 1732; 1739, figure 1; 2044, figure 8; 2060]), the 30-year increasing portion of the 60-year AMO cycle likely does not account for such a long warming trend. This undermines attempts to use the AMO to object to man-made global warming. For example, François Gervais proposes that the AMO undermines claims of a large, man-made CO2-induced warming trend [909]. Gervais' position implies a number of false claims, including that [909, pages 129, 132, figure 4, and figure 5] satellite-based analyses show post-2002 cooling [193; 296; 700; 1109; 1147, page S17; 1318], that [909, pages 129, 130, 132, and figure 2b] the Earth's surface cooled post-1998 [493; 751 - 753; 756; 758; 764; 1013; 1078, figure 1A; 1147, page S12; 1160; 1161; 1450 - 1454], that [909, page 132 and figure 2a] the rate of sea level rise decreased post-1998 [1433, figure 3 on page 8; 1455; 1456, figure 2 on page 1555; 1457], and that [909, pages 131, 132, and figure 3] the rate of global sea ice melt was greatly mitigated [1318; 1459; 1460]. I address these false claims more in "Myth: No Global Warming for Two Decades".

Judith Curry and Anastasios Tsonis both [912; 1448; 1449; 1479] also propose a large role for the AMO. This caused Curry [1319 - 1323; 1648; 1649; 1808 - 1810] and Tsonis [1443, page 4; 1444; 1445; 1446; 1447, paragraphs 14 and 15; 1863; 1864], like Gervais [909, pages 129, 130, 132, figure 2b, figure 4, and figure 5], to falsely predict a lack of warming when warming actually occurred. Moreover, other contrarians made false claims regarding warming due to an over-reliance on a ~60-year cycle; these contrarians include DocMartyn writing for Judith Curry's blog [1371], Javier on Curry's blog [1474 - 1477; 1505; 1514], Nicola Scafetta [129, figure 5; 131, figure 12; 1223, figure 16; 1224, figure 6; 1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82], Craig Loehle [1382, page 74 and figure 5 on page 82; 1388, figure 6], Rolf Werner (in otherwise commendable work co-authored with Dimitar Valev, Dimitar Danov, Veneta Guineva, and Andrey Kirillov) [1818], Syun-Ichi Akasofu [1214, figure 5; 2036, citing 2037 - 2039, for 2040; similar point in: 2041 - 2043], Don Easterbrook [1461 - 1463; 1464, pages 1 and 2; 1470, figure 24 on page 456], Joseph D'Aleo [1470, figure 24 on page 456; 1471 - 1473], Nils-Axel Mörner [1362, section 2.2], Clive Best [1469], Pat Frank [1617; 1618], Girma Orssengo [1275, figure 3], William Gray [1485, figure 14 on page 13; 1486; 1487], Dietrich Koelle [1271], Fritz Vahrenholt [1370], Sebastian Lüning [1370; 1465], Leonid B. Klyashtorin [1466, figure 5; 1619], Alexey A. Lyubushin [1466, figure 5; 1619], Joachim Seifert [1467, pages 2, figure 2, and figure A4], Frank Lemke [1467, pages 2, figure 2, and figure A4], Thayer Watkins [1488 - 1490], and David J. Pristash [1468]. Thus over-estimation of the AMO's impact led a number of contrarians to falsely predict that global warming would cease with the downward phase of the AMO. Norman C. Trelour [1498 - 1500] attempts to explain recent warming, while maintaining the 60-year cycle; this leads Trelour to accept a near-exponential greenhouse-gas-induced warming trend that dwarfs the temperature trend from the 60-year cycle [1499; 1500].


Figure 21: Global land+ocean surface temperature trend relative to mean temperature from 1961 - 1990, as depicted in various analyses [1013, figure 1b].
Other sources [1078, figure 1A; 1147, page S12; 1156; 1375, figure 1; 1739, figure 1] offer a similar depiction, but with the addition of four more analyses, including an analysis from the Japanese Meteorological Association (JMA) [1147, page S12; 1156]. The JMA provides a post-1890 land+ocean analysis [1147, page S12; 1151, generated using 741, as per 742; 1159 - 1162] with less global coverage [1160, section 7.4; 1162, section 3], while the China Meteorological Agency (CMA) also provides a post-1900 global land analysis [759; 981; 1163; 1207], as do others [1812; 1921], including for the post-1983 period [1812; 1813; 1921]. The CMA recently provided a post-1900 global land+ocean analysis well [2044]. Other ocean temperatures analyses exist, confirming recent warming as well [1920]. The above figure includes neither the CMA analysis nor the JMA analysis, but both analyses show a similar pattern of 1900s - 1940s warming, temperature stagnation or slight cooling from the 1940s - 1960s, and post-1960s warming [759, figure 1a; 1151, generated using 741, as per 742; 1156; 1159; 1160; 2044].
This figure may overestimate 1940s - 1970s cooling due to uncertainties tied to changes in temperature monitoring practices during World War II [1659; 1677; 1688; 1731], as I discuss in "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming". Figure 23 below addresses this issue.


Figure 22: (A) Global surface temperature trend from 1891 - 2017 relative to a baseline of 1961 - 1990, as depicted in various analyses.
(B) Contributions to the trend in panel A, from (a) the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, (b) the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, (c) volcanoes, (d) solar output in the form of total solar irradiance {TSI}, (e) greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols combined, (f) the Arctic Oscillation, and (g) the residual left over when the effect of factors a through f are subtracted out from panel A.
(C) (a) Comparison of the relative surface temperature trend for 1891 - 2015 from panel A {black line} to the sum of the factors mentioned in panel B, sub-panels a through f {red line}. (b) Comparison of the relative surface temperature trend from 1891 - 2015 from panel A {black line} to climate model projections {blue line} from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project {CMIP5} [1078, figure 1A]. This panel exaggerates recent differences between the CMIP5 projections and the relative surface temperature trend, for reasons [752; 884; 1347 - 1350; 1458; 1659] I discuss in sections 2.1 and 2.3 of "Myth: Santer et al. Show that Climate Models are Very Flawed".

The residual temperature spike around the 1940s in panel g likely stems from [1458] uncertainties tied to changes in temperature monitoring practices during World War II [1659; 1677; 1688; 1731], as I discuss in "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming". Figure 23 below addresses this issue.

Figure 23: Global surface temperature trend from 1850 - 2017 relative to a baseline of 1850 - 1879 (observations), with the contribution of various factors to this temperature trend (colored lines) [1659; 1688]. The gray line is the sum of each of the depicted colored lines. The surface temperature trend takes into account changes in sea surface temperature measuring practices during the 1930s and 1940s [1659; 1677; 1688; 1731; 1920, figure 8; 1947], which I elaborate more on in "Myth: Karl et al. of the NOAA Misleadingly Altered Ocean Temperature Records to Increase Global Warming". The authors of this figure adapted it from the results of their 2019 paper [1659; 1688; 1865]. 

Figure 20 illustrates how short-term variations from changes in solar output [487; 817], ENSO, etc., can operate in conjunction with long-term, more-linear CO2-induced warming from figure 20b [72; 137, from 40:29 to 45:59; 485; 487; 488] (I discussed 1910s - 1940s warming further in section 2.5). This is analogous to how weekly weather patterns can operate in conjunction with a seasonal, multi-month, axial-tilt-induced warming trend in Canada from mid-winter to mid-summer, as noted by Peter Hadfield [917, from 5:22 - 11:22]. Figures 22 and 23 also illustrate this point, while also showing the role of sulfate aerosols in mitigating pre-1970s CO2-induced warming. Thus evidence excluding a number of other likely causes of global warming, helps support the predicted causal relationship between increased CO2 and warming

This causal relationship becomes even clearer when one examines deeper ocean warming. Deeper oceans better reflect the energy imbalance I discussed in section 2.2, since the vast majority of the excess energy goes not into near-surface or surface warming, but instead into ocean warming to a depth [143; 755; 1148; 1339; 1543 - 1545] of 700 meters or 2000 meters. Given this, scientists have pointed out since at least the 1980s [1596, page 9359] that ocean heat content, in contrast to surface warming, better represents the climate's sensitivity to CO2 (I discussed climate sensitivity in section 2.5). However, due to the thermal inertia of the ocean, the energy imbalance from increased CO2 continues to accumulate as deeper ocean warming for awhile after the CO2 increase ceases [1221; 1392 - 1396; 1594, page 585; 1595]. This deeper ocean warming lacks the slight cooling from the 1940s to 1970s seen in figures 20, 21, 22, and 23 for near-surface temperature trends, as per figure 24 below. 

And the ocean warming trend largely matches the pattern of radiative forcing from increased CO2, even when one takes into account radiative forcing from other factors, such as TSI (I discussed radiative forcing in section 2.2). Figures 24 and 25 below illustrate this point. This is consistent with previous research showing that increases in greenhouse gases such as CO2 help explain the observed pattern of ocean warming [51; 142 - 144; 1081; 1128; 1161; 1221; 1378; 1575; 1801; 1847; 1872; 1924; 1957; 1958; 2022, figure 3b; 2023]. 

So accounting for radiative forcing and temperature trends from other factors, Earth's climate in the distant past, etc., provides further support for the claim that increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (especially CO2) caused most of the recent warming. The evidence coheres with greenhouse gases as an explanation, while ruling out a number of other proposed causes of warming.



Figure 24: Relative ocean heat content, as estimated using different analyses. The analyses in question are listed on the left of panel B, with their corresponding colors [1543, figures 1A, 1B, and 1C]; other analyses not shown here also show increased ocean heat content [1128; 1147, page S76]. The GF analysis originated in the paper from which this figure was taken, while the other listed analyses come from previously published research. The analyses cover the latitudes 80°N to 80°S, except for Domingues, which covers 65°N to 65°S. Estimates are in ZJ or ZJ/yr (ZJ per year), where 1 ZJ = 10^21 joules of energy. Estimates are also relative to a 2006 - 2015 baseline, with shading representing the uncertainty for each estimate.
(Top inset for each panel) Linear trend in ocean heat content, with error bars, over the periods noted. (Bottom inset for each panel) Relative ocean heat content (A) to a depth of 0 meters to 700 meters, (B) 0 meters to 2000 meters, and (C) below 2000 meters [1543, figures 1A, 1B, and 1C].



Figure 25: Radiative forcing trend from 1750 - 2011. The colored, filled-in regions in the line graph correspond to the colored labels on the left side of the graph. These colored labels also correspond to the bar graph on the right; the bar graph shows radiative forcing for each factor from 1750 - 2011, with error bars representing uncertainty estimates. The solid black line and red line on the line graph depicts total radiative forcing and radiative forcing from man-made (anthropogenic) factors, respectively, as per the labels on the bottom right of the graph.
Abbreviations: BC - black carbon aerosols; Strat. H2O - stratospheric water vapor; Trop. O3 - tropospheric ozone; WMGHG - well-mixed greenhouse gases (excludes water vapor); Aer-Rad - aerosol radiation interactions; Aer-Cld - aerosol cloud interactions; Strat. O3 - stratospheric ozone.
[1150, figure 8.18 on page 699].

Since this 2013 IPCC figure was made, scientists updated radiative forcing estimates using further data [884; 1349; 1399; 1400; 1547 - 1549; 1588; 1659; 1738; 1741; 1837; 2111]. So progress in climate science did not simply end with this figure [1546]. For instance, solar radiative forcing estimates decreased [884; 1349]. These updates, however, do not greatly change the magnitude of the total forcing estimates from 1750 - 2011.




3. Posts Providing Further Information and Analysis






4. References



  1. Youtube, potholer54's video: "25 - Climate Change -- The "800-year lag" unravelled" ("Does CO2 lead or lag global temperature?")
  2. http://joannenova.com.au/2010/11/dessler-2010-how-to-call-vast-amounts-of-data-spurious/
  3. "Causal feedbacks in climate change"
  4. "Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change"
  5. "Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation"
  6. "Climate change 2007: Working Group I: The physical science basis; FAQ 6.1; What caused the ice ages and other important climate changes before the industrial era?"
  7. "On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature"
  8. "A contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out-of-sample Granger causality analysis"
  9. "Testing for linear Granger causality from natural/anthropogenic forcings to global temperature anomalies"
  10. "Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change"
  11. "Climate sensitivity in the geologic past"
  12. "Temperature change and carbon dioxide change": https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/temperature-change
  13. "Synchronous change of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during the last deglacial warming"
  14. "Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation"
  15. "CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate"
  16. "CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic"
  17. "Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?"
  18. "Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum"
  19. "Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming"
  20. "Atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years: A high-resolution record from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core"
  21. "Atmospheric carbon dioxide linked with Mesozoic and early Cenozoic climate change"
  22. "HIV denial in the Internet era"
  23. "European evidence based consensus on the diagnosis and management of Crohn's disease: definitions and diagnosis"
  24. "When is consensus knowledge based? Distinguishing shared knowledge from mere agreement"
  25. "The Durban Declaration"
  26. Link for "Consensus Study Report": https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects
  27. "An overview of the last 10 years of genetically engineered crop safety research"
  28. http://www.pewinternet.org/interactives/public-scientists-opinion-gap/
  29. "The pivotal role of perceived scientific consensus in acceptance of science"
  30. "Highlighting consensus among medical scientists increases public support for vaccines: evidence from a randomized experiment"
  31. "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming"
  32. "The Bray and von Storch 5th International Survey of Climate Scientists 2015/2016"
  33. "Models, manifestation and attribution of climate change"
  34. "Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change"
  35. "Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming"
  36. "Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature"
  37. "Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth’s energy balance"
  38. "Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective"
  39. "Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-century climate"
  40. "A multimodel update on the detection and attribution of global surface warming"
  41. "Solar trends and global warming"
  42. "Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium"
  43. "Evidence of recent causal decoupling between solar radiation and global temperature"
  44. "The detection and attribution of climate change using an ensemble of opportunity"
  45. "Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change"
  46. "Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations"
  47. "Attributing observed SST trends and subcontinental land warming to anthropogenic forcing during 1979–2005"
  48. "Sensitivity of the attribution of near surface temperature warming to the choice of observational dataset"
  49. "A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century global warming"
  50. "Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change"
  51. "Evidence for external forcing on 20th-century climate from combined ocean-atmosphere warming patterns"
  52. "Observed 21st century temperatures further constrain likely rates of future warming"
  53. "CMIP5 historical simulations (1850–2012) with GISS ModelE2"
  54. "Climate variability and change since 850 C.E.: An ensemble approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM)"
  55. "Uncertainties in the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and implications for climate prediction"
  56. "Application of regularised optimal fingerprinting to attribution. Part II: application to global near-surface temperature"
  57. "A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium"
  58. "Evaluating global climate responses to different forcings using simple indices"
  59. "Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth’s surface"
  60. "Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years"
  61. "How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006"
  62. "Detecting climate signals in the surface temperature record"
  63. "Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes"
  64. "Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries"
  65. "Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes"
  66. "Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models"
  67. "A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution"
  68. "Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations"
  69. "Climate of the past millennium: combining proxy data and model simulations"
  70. "The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability"
  71. "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate"
  72. "Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause"
  73. "Lower tropospheric temperatures 1978-2016: The role played by anthropogenic global warming"
  74. "Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance"
  75. http://www.co2science.org/articles/V5/N52/EDIT.php ("Debunking modern climate myths"; volume 5, number 52: 25 December 2002 )
  76. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/do-aliens-cause-global-warming-the-data-say-yes/
  77. "Understanding climate change: Lesson plans for the classroom"
  78. http://wmbriggs.com/post/5949/ ("Why every scientist needs a classical training")
  79. https://principia-scientific.org/r-i-p-greenhouse-gas-theory-1980-2018/
  80. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/03/does-the-effect-from-the-cause-affect-the-cause/
  81. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/09/how-to-convince-a-climate-skeptic-hes-wrong/
  82. https://americanvision.org/1844/logical-fallacies-of-global-warming/
  83. https://www.quora.com/Is-human-caused-climate-change-an-example-of-confusing-correlation-and-causation-Why-or-why-not
  84. "Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming"
  85. "Nature, not human activity, rules the climate"
  86. https://principia-scientific.org/professor-singer-finds-co2-has-little-affect-global-temperature-v2/
  87. "A skeptical layman’s guide to anthropogenic global warming"
  88. "Climate change 2007: Working Group I: The physical science basis; FAQ 1.3: "What is the greenhouse effect?"
  89. USCA Case #09-1322, Document #1312291
  90. "The geological perspective of global warming: A debate"
  91. https://www.thegwpf.com/william-happer-the-dubious-science-of-the-climate-crusaders/
  92. https://friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=706
  93. "Natural resource adaptation: Protecting ecosystems and economies” (Statement of Patrick Moore, Ph.D.; Before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight; February 25, 2014)
  94. http://jeremyshiers.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/globalTempAndCo2_last600MillionYears.png
  95. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/05/on-attribution
  96. http://www.co2science.org/about/position/globalwarming.php
  97. "New constraints on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Phanerozoic"
  98. "Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years"
  99. "The environment and disease: association or causation?"
  100. "Applying the Bradford Hill criteria in the 21st century: how data integration has changed causal inference in molecular epidemiology"
  101. "The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association""
  102. "The GRADE approach and Bradford Hill’s criteria for causation"
  103. "The association between human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma"
  104. "A systematic review of the evidence supporting a causal link between dietary factors and coronary heart disease"
  105. "WHO health risk assessment process for static fields"
  106. "On the origin of Hill's causal criteria"
  107. "Hume, Mill, Hill, and the sui generis epidemiologic approach to causal inference"
  108. "Statistics and causal inference" (DOI: 10.1002/j.2330-8516.1985.tb00125.x)
  109. "Principia ætiologica: taking causality beyond Koch's postulates"
  110. "Proof of causality: Deduction from epidemiological observation"
  111. "Commentary: Questioning the HIV-AIDS hypothesis: 30 years of dissent"
  112. "High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present"
  113. "Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years"
  114. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/atm_meth/ice_core_methane.html ("800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Methane (CH4)")
  115. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/epica_domec/edc3deuttemp2007.txt (Data for "Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years")
  116. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/epica_domec/edc-co2-2008.txt (Data for "High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present")
  117. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/ [http://archive.is/yvIbL]
  118. "Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years"
  119. "Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on consistent treatment of uncertainties"
  120. "Climate change 2007: The physical science basis; Chapter 10: Global climate projections"
  121. "Climate change 2014: Synthesis report summary for policymakers"
  122. "Testing multiple statistical hypotheses resulted in spurious associations: a study of astrological signs and health"
  123. "Astrological signs as determinants of extroversion and emotionality: An empirical study"
  124. "Testing astrology" (Current Science, Vol. 96, No. 12, 25 June 2009)
  125. http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/02/wuwt-failed-predictions-nicola-scafetta.html
  126. https://skepticalscience.com/its-planetary-movements.htm
  127. https://skepticalscience.com/benestad-2013-agnotology.html
  128. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/03/22/mathturbation-king/
  129. "Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models"
  130. "Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle"
  131. "Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications"
  132. "Climate change and its causes: A discussion about some key issues"
  133. "The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus"
  134. "On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground" (alternative version here)
  135. "The idea of anthropogenic global climate change in the 20th century"
  136. "Climate change conceptual change: Scientific information can transform attitudes"
  137. Ray Pierrehumbert's 2012 video: "Tyndall Lecture: GC43I. Successful Predictions - 2012 AGU Fall Meeting"
  138. "Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010" [followed up in the conference abstract: "Direct observations of the greenhouse effect of CO2 and CH4 over Greenland" ; http://archive.is/Scg6t]
  139. "Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997" [updated in the unpublished: "Spectral signatures of climate change in the Earth’s infrared spectrum between 1970 and 2006" ; https://web.archive.org/web/20191019203356/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ad77/baeca26c4f77a9d043a5b53e058ea959e495.pdf]
  140. "The spectral signature of recent climate change"
  141. "Global atmospheric downward longwave radiation at the surface from ground-based observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalyses"
  142. "Insights into Earth’s energy imbalance from multiple sources"
  143. "Reconciling estimates of ocean heating and Earth’s radiation budget"
  144. "Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005"
  145. "Radiative forcing - measured at Earth's surface - corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect"
  146. "Infra-red absorption by carbon dioxide, with special reference to atmospheric radiation"
  147. "Infrared absorption by carbon dioxide, water vapor, and minor atmospheric constituents"
  148. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page7.php
  149. "A mental picture of the greenhouse effect: A pedagogic explanation"
  150. "Comment on "Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics""
  151. "Infrared radiation and planetary temperature"
  152. https://scienceofdoom.com/roadmap/confusion-over-the-basics/
  153. https://scienceofdoom.com/2010/03/15/the-imaginary-second-law-of-thermodynamics/
  154. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/12/why-atmospheric-pressure-cannot-explain-the-elevated-surface-temperature-of-the-earth/
  155. "Sixth-grade students' progress in understanding the mechanisms of global climate change"
  156. "Comparing the effects of traditional vs. misconceptions-based instruction on student understanding of the greenhouse effect"
  157. "Slaying the sky dragon - Death of the greenhouse gas theory: Interview"
  158. http://www.whyitsnotco2.com/Planetary_Core_and_Surface_Temperatures.pdf
  159. http://joannenova.com.au/2011/05/why-greenhouse-gas-warming-doesnt-break-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics/
  160. "New insights on the physical nature of the atmospheric greenhouse effect deduced from an empirical planetary temperature model"
  161. "The refutation of the climate greenhouse theory and a proposal for a hopeful alternative"
  162. Youtube, 1000frolly's video: "Greenhouse Effect is Invalidated"
  163. "The “greenhouse effect” as a function of atmospheric mass"
  164. https://judithcurry.com/2010/11/30/physics-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect/
  165. http://scottishsceptic.co.uk/2015/06/25/more-caterpillars-the-leaky-atmosphere-hypothesis-is-global-pressure-a-proxy-for-global-temperature/ (http://scottishsceptic.co.uk/2018/01/24/does-this-paper-prove-there-virtually-no-co2-greenhouse-effect/)
  166. http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/11/derivation-of-entire-33c-greenhouse.html
  167. "Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models"
  168. "Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period"
  169. "Positive feedback in climate: stabilization or runaway, illustrated by a simple experiment"
  170. "Climate variability and relationships between top-of-atmosphere radiation and temperatures on Earth"
  171. "Climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4"
  172. "Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes"
  173. "Physical mechanisms of tropical climate feedbacks investigated using temperature and moisture trends"
  174. "Trends in tropospheric humidity from 1970 to 2008 over China from a homogenized radiosonde dataset"
  175. "Recent climatology, variability, and trends in global surface humidity"
  176. "Recent changes in surface humidity: Development of the HadCRUH dataset"
  177. "Processes responsible for cloud feedback"
  178. "An analysis of the dependence of clear-sky top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation on atmospheric temperature and water vapor"
  179. "Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation"
  180. "Water vapor feedback and global warming"
  181. "Global water vapor variability and trend from the latest 36 year (1979 to 2014) data of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses, radiosonde, GPS, and microwave satellite"
  182. "Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature"
  183. "Thermodynamic control of anvil cloud amount"
  184. "An analysis of the short-term cloud feedback using MODIS data"
  185. "Thermodynamic constraint on the depth of the global tropospheric circulation"
  186. "Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record"
  187. "What caused Earth's temperature variations during the last 800,000 years? Data-based evidence on radiative forcing and constraints on climate sensitivity"
  188. "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification"
  189. "Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice"
  190. "Estimating the global radiative impact of the sea ice–albedo feedback in the Arctic"
  191. "Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume"
  192. "Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming"
  193. "Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data"
  194. "The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change"
  195. "Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world"
  196. "Regional variation of the tropical water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks"
  197. "The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model"
  198. "On the distribution of climate change resulting from an increase in CO2 content of the atmosphere"
  199. "An assessment of direct radiative forcing, radiative adjustments, and radiative feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models"
  200. "Observations of climate feedbacks over 2000–10 and comparisons to climate models"
  201. "Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth's observed radiation budget"
  202. "Climate science special report: A sustained assessment activity of the U.S. Global Change Research Program"
  203. "Relationships between outgoing longwave radiation and diabatic heating in reanalyses"
  204. "The atmospheric energy constraint on global-mean precipitation change"
  205. "Upper-tropospheric moistening in response to anthropogenic warming"
  206. "Global water vapor trend from 1988 to 2011 and its diurnal asymmetry based on GPS, radiosonde, and microwave satellite measurements"
  207. "Enhanced positive water vapor feedback associated with tropical deep convection: New evidence from Aura MLS"
  208. "Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback increase temperature in Europe"
  209. "Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003–2008"
  210. "An analysis of tropospheric humidity trends from radiosondes"
  211. "Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013"
  212. "An assessment of tropospheric water vapor feedback using radiative kernels"
  213. "Clearing clouds of uncertainty"
  214. "Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models"
  215. "A net decrease in the Earth’s cloud, aerosol, and surface 340 nm reflectivity during the past 33 yr (1979–2011)"
  216. "New observational evidence for a positive cloud feedback that amplifies the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation"
  217. "Impact of dataset choice on calculations of the short-term cloud feedback"
  218. "Long-term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: More evidence of high climate sensitivity"
  219. "A determination of the cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade"
  220. "Quantifying snow albedo radiative forcing and its feedback during 2003–2016"
  221. "Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008"
  222. "Evidence for ice-ocean albedo feedback in the Arctic Ocean shifting to a seasonal ice zone"
  223. "Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellite-derived tropospheric temperatures: understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies"
  224. "Temperature trends at the surface and in the troposphere"
  225. "30-year atmospheric temperature record derived by one-dimensional variational data assimilation of MSU/AMSU-A observations"
  226. "Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends"
  227. "New estimates of tropical mean temperature trend profiles from zonal mean historical radiosonde and pilot balloon wind shear observations"
  228. "Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2)"
  229. "Estimating low-frequency variability and trends in atmospheric temperature using ERA-Interim"
  230. "Detection and analysis of an amplified warming of the Sahara Desert"
  231. "Impacts of atmospheric temperature trends on tropical cyclone activity"
  232. "Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic hurricane activity"
  233. "Westward shift of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis"
  234. "Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection"
  235. "Evolution and modulation of tropical heating from the last glacial maximum through the twenty-first century"
  236. "Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations with very high carbon dioxide levels"
  237. "The evolution of HIV-1 and the origin of AIDS"
  238. "AIDS as a zoonosis: Scientific and public health implications"
  239. "A new human immunodeficiency virus derived from gorillas"
  240. "Timing the ancestor of the HIV-1 pandemic strains"
  241. "Chimpanzee reservoirs of pandemic and nonpandemic HIV-1"
  242. "Understanding the benign nature of SIV infection in natural hosts"
  243. "Immunity in natural SIV infections"
  244. "Increased mortality and AIDS-like immunopathology in wild chimpanzees infected with SIVcpz"
  245. "Going wild: lessons from naturally occurring T-lymphotropic lentiviruses"
  246. "Lessons learned from the natural hosts of HIV-related viruses"
  247. Youtube, C0nc0rdance's video: "Does HIV Cause AIDS?"
  248. Youtube, C0nc0rdance's video: "Lysenkoism"
  249. "Naturally acquired feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) infection in cats from western Canada: Prevalence, disease associations, and survival analysis"
  250. "Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) as a model for study of lentivirus infections: parallels with HIV"
  251. "Prevalences of feline leukaemia virus and feline immunodeficiency virus infections in cats in Sydney"
  252. "Naturally occurring acquired immunodeficiency diseases of the dog and cat"
  253. "Transmission and immunopathogenesis of FIV in cats as a model for HIV"
  254. "Feline immunodeficiency virus model for designing HIV/AIDS vaccines"
  255. "Maedi-visna virus and its relationship to human immunodeficiency virus"
  256. "Nucleotide sequence of the visna lentivirus: relationship to the AIDS virus"
  257. "Equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV): what has HIV’s country cousin got to tell us?"
  258. "Nucleotide sequence evidence for relationship of AIDS retrovirus to lentiviruses"
  259. "Characterization and molecular cloning of a bovine lentivirus related to human immunodeficiency virus"
  260. "Bovine immunodeficiency virus: molecular biology and virus-host interactions"
  261. "Global distribution of the CCR5 gene 32-basepair deletion"
  262. "HIV and the CCR5-?32 resistance allele"
  263. "CCR5 knockout strategies"
  264. https://scimedskeptic.wordpress.com/tag/hivaids-denialism/
  265. "Questioning HIV/AIDS: Morally reprehensible or scientifically warranted?"
  266. "Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide"
  267. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/dec/02/spectator-sea-level-claims
  268. http://www.badscience.net/2009/10/aids-denialism-at-the-spectator/ [http://archive.is/HMq96]
  269. https://scimedskeptic.wordpress.com/2017/05/10/climate-change-orthodoxy-alternative-facts-uncertainty-equals-certainty-projections-are-not-predictions-and-other-absurdities-of-the-scientific-consensus/ [http://archive.is/oHNTg]
  270. "Manufactured scientific controversy: Science, rhetoric, and public debate"
  271. "Dealing with climate science denialism: experiences from confrontations with other forms of pseudoscience"
  272. "Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?"
  273. "How the growth of denialism undermines public health"
  274. "The ethics of belief, cognition, and climate change pseudoskepticism: Implications for public discourse"
  275. "Science denial as a form of pseudoscience"
  276. "Countering evidence denial and the promotion of pseudoscience in autism spectrum disorder"
  277. "Science denial and the science classroom"
  278. "Science denial: a guide for scientists"
  279. Youtube, C0nc0rdance's video: "Origin of HIV, or Where Does HIV Come From?"
  280. "Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change" (DOI: 10.1038/nature10322)
  281. "Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations: A letter"
  282. "The role of carbon dioxide in climate forcing from 1979 to 2004: introduction of the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index"
  283. "Atmospheric methane: Trends and impacts"
  284. "Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers"
  285. "Microorganisms and climate change: terrestrial feedbacks and mitigation options"
  286. "Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets"
  287. https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html [http://archive.is/06KcJ]
  288. "Spectrally dependent CLARREO infrared spectrometer calibration requirement for climate change detection"
  289. "Trends in U.S. Surface Humidity, 1930–2010"
  290. "The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening"
  291. "Evaluation of atmospheric precipitable water from reanalysis products using homogenized radiosonde observations over China"
  292. "Trends in tropospheric humidity from reanalysis systems"
  293. "The use of ground-based GPS precipitable water measurements over China to assess radiosonde and ERA-Interim moisture trends and errors from 1999-2015"
  294. "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence"
  295. "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content"
  296. "A satellite-derived lower tropospheric atmospheric temperature dataset using an optimized adjustment for diurnal effects"
  297. "Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment"
  298. "Three decades of intersatellite-calibrated High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder upper tropospheric water vapor"
  299. "Radiosonde-based trends in precipitable water over the Northern Hemisphere: An update"
  300. "It’s not my consensus: Motivated reasoning and the sources of scientific illiteracy"
  301. "Not all skepticism is equal: Exploring the ideological antecedents of science acceptance and rejection"
  302. "GSS 1972-2012 cumulative datafile" [Row is "EATGM" or "GMMEM"; Column is "POLVIEWS(1-7)", Selection Filter(s) is "Year(2006)"]
  303. "The role of conspiracist ideation and worldviews in predicting rejection of science"
  304. "Deference to scientific authority among a low information public: Understanding U.S. opinion on agricultural biotechnology"
  305. http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/12/01/public-opinion-about-genetically-modified-foods-and-trust-in-scientists-connected-with-these-foods/
  306. "Climate-science communication and the measurement problem"
  307. "Conservative and liberal views of science: Does trust depend on topic?"
  308. "Does partisanship shape attitudes toward science and public policy? The case for ideology and religion"
  309. "Safety of genetically engineered foods: Approaches to assessing unintended health effects"
  310. "Genetically engineered crops: experiences and prospects"
  311. "Overall assessment of the safety of GM foods and feeds" [Chapter 9 of "Genetic Modification and Food Quality: A Down to Earth Analysis"]
  312. "A meta-analysis of the impacts of genetically modified crops"
  313. "GM crops and foods: What do consumers want to know?"
  314. "Published GMO studies find no evidence of harm when corrected for multiple comparisons"
  315. "The infra-red spectra of atmospheric gases other than water vapour"
  316. "Global energy budgets and ‘Trenberth diagrams’ for the climates of terrestrial and gas giant planets"
  317. "Attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect"
  318. "Radiative energy balance in the Venus atmosphere"
  319. "Radiative energy balance of Venus based on improved models of the middle and lower atmosphere"
  320. "Investigation of the Martian environment by infrared spectroscopy on Mariner 9"
  321. "Effect of smoke-free legislation on perinatal and child health: a systematic review and meta-analysis"
  322. "Effect of tobacco control policies on perinatal and child health: a systematic review and meta-analysis"
  323. "Secondhand smoke exposure and risk of lung cancer in Japan: a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies"
  324. "Second-hand smoke and the risk of tuberculosis: a systematic review and a meta-analysis"
  325. "Tobacco smoke, indoor air pollution and tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis"
  326. "Tobacco smoking and cancer: a brief review of recent epidemiological evidence"
  327. "Systematic review with meta-analysis of the epidemiological evidence in the 1900s relating smoking to lung cancer"
  328. "Cigarette smoking and lung cancer – relative risk estimates for the major histological types from a pooled analysis of case-control studies"
  329. "Meta-analysis of the association between second-hand smoke exposure and ischaemic heart diseases, COPD and stroke"
  330. "The health effects of passive smoking: An overview of systematic reviews based on observational epidemiological evidence"
  331. "Science denialism: Evolution and climate change"
  332. "Challenging the epidemiologic evidence on passive smoking: tactics of tobacco industry expert witnesses"
  333. "Why review articles on the health effects of passive smoking reach different conclusions"
  334. "Global warming: How skepticism became denial"
  335. "Science and the public: Debate, denial, and skepticism"
  336. "Climate change denial: Sources, actors and strategies"
  337. https://www.skepticalscience.com/Skeptic-arguments-about-cigarette-smoke-sound-familiar.html
  338. https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2011/05/lindzen-dismisses-hansens-defamations/
  339. http://www.abc.net.au/tv/changeyourmind/webextras/richardlindzen_transcript.pdf ("I have argued as most people who have looked at it that the case for second-hand tobacco is not very good.")
  340. "The truth about global warming", Newsweek, 7/22/01 ["Lindzen clearly relishes the role of naysayer. He'll even expound on how weakly lung cancer is linked to cigarette smoking. He speaks in full, impeccably logical paragraphs, and he punctuates his measured cadences with thoughtful drags on a cigarette." ; http://archive.is/zlJPD#selection-475.0-475.251]
  341. "The denial industry"
  342. "The sceptic meets his match"
  343. "Five lies about tobacco: The tobacco bill wasn't about kids" ("A fourth lie is that even moderate smoking is deadly. Several experts (including two who are very anti-smoking) have told me that smoking fewer than seven cigarettes a day does not raise a smoker's risk of lung cancer. When have you seen that fact reported in a newspaper or admitted by a public health official?" ; https://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/july-1998-five-lies-about-tobacco-the-tobacco-bill-wasnt-about-kids [https://web.archive.org/web/20191127180958/https://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/july-1998-five-lies-about-tobacco-the-tobacco-bill-wasnt-about-kids])
  344. https://www.desmogblog.com/2014/04/30/video-heartland-institute-s-joe-bast-reluctantly-stands-denial-cigarette-smoking-risks [http://archive.is/vAQZB]
  345. https://www.webcitation.org/5v5F96rKC?url=http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2005%20November.htm ("Number of the Month, November 2005: That terrible randomness")
  346. https://www.webcitation.org/5v5F8ERzn?url=http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2001%20November.htm ("Number of the Month, November 2001: Synchronised spinning")
  347. "On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data"
  348. "On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications"
  349. "The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes"
  350. "Recent developments in Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity"
  351. "Inference of climate sensitivity from analysis of Earth's energy budget"
  352. "Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity"
  353. "The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates"
  354. "Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth"
  355. "Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings"
  356. "Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy"
  357. "Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth’s climate sensitivity"
  358. "Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity"
  359. "On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity"
  360. "Corrigendum to "On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity" [Ecol. Model. 297 (2015), 20-25]"
  361. "Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise"
  362. "Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing"
  363. "Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming"
  364. http://climatefeedback.org/scientists-reactions-us-house-science-committee-hearing-climate-science/
  365. "Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model"
  366. Youtube, Tony Heller's video: "NASA Debunks Global Warming Theory"
  367. "Misdiagnosis of Earth climate sensitivity based on energy balance model results"
  368. "Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity"
  369. "The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity"
  370. "Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations"
  371. "Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity"
  372. "Climate change 2013: The physical science basis; Chapter 1: Introduction"
  373. "Climate change 2013: Working Group I: The physical science basis; Chapter 10; Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional"
  374. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/01/science/earth/clouds-effect-on-climate-change-is-last-bastion-for-dissenters.html
  375. "Review of the consensus and asymmetric quality of research on human-induced climate change"
  376. "Title: On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications; Ms. No.: 2010-15738"
  377. "The iris hypothesis: A negative or positive cloud feedback?"
  378. "Examination of the decadal tropical mean ERBS nonscanner radiation Data for the Iris Hypothesis"
  379. "Variations of tropical upper tropospheric clouds with sea surface temperature and implications for radiative effects"
  380. "Observational evidence against strongly stabilizing tropical cloud feedbacks"
  381. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/507158574670573568 [http://archive.is/krV0y]
  382. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/260415099452416000
  383. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/449525268529815552
  384. Youtube, C0nc0rdance's video: "Why I Can't Vote for Trump"
  385. "Vaccine risk perceptions and ad hoc risk communication: An empirical assessment"
  386. http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/02/02/vast-majority-of-americans-say-benefits-of-childhood-vaccines-outweigh-risks/
  387. "The determinants and consequences of accurate beliefs about childhood vaccinations"
  388. "Beliefs about childhood vaccination in the United States: Political ideology, false consensus, and the illusion of uniqueness"
  389. "Trust in scientists on climate change and vaccines"
  390. "Commentary to: How to respond to vocal vaccine deniers in public"
  391. "Vaccines and autism: A tale of shifting hypotheses"
  392. "Addressing parents' concerns: do vaccines contain harmful preservatives, adjuvants, additives, or residuals?"
  393. Youtube, C0nc0rdance's video: "Vaccines: Too Many Too Soon"
  394. "A probabilistic analysis of human influence on recent record global mean temperature changes"
  395. "Vaccine adjuvants: Putting innate immunity to work"
  396. "Aluminum toxicokinetics regarding infant diet and vaccinations"
  397. "Updated aluminum pharmacokinetics following infant exposures through diet and vaccination"
  398. "Towards an understanding of the adjuvant action of aluminium"
  399. "Vaccines are not associated with autism: An evidence-based meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies"
  400. "Addressing parents' concerns: do multiple vaccines overwhelm or weaken the infant's immune system?"
  401. "Lack of broad functional differences in immunity in fully vaccinated vs. unvaccinated children"
  402. "Vaccinated versus unvaccinated children: how they fare in first five years of life"
  403. "Vaccination status and health in children and adolescents"
  404. "Nonmedical vaccine exemptions and pertussis in California, 2010"
  405. "The changing concept of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome: Diagnostic coding shifts, controversies regarding the sleeping environment, and new variables to consider in reducing risk"
  406. "Combined vaccines are like a sudden onslaught to the body's immune system': Parental concerns about vaccine 'overload' and 'immune-vulnerability"
  407. "Addressing parents' concerns: do vaccines cause allergic or autoimmune diseases?"
  408. "Do vaccines modify the prevalence of asthma and allergies?"
  409. "Increasing exposure to antibody-stimulating proteins and polysaccharides in vaccines is not associated with risk of autism"
  410. "Long-term measles-induced immunomodulation increases overall childhood infectious disease mortality"
  411. "Mumps meningoencephalitis with low cerebrospinal-fluid glucose, prolonged pleocytosis and elevation of protein"
  412. "Meningitis and encephalitis associated with mumps infection: a 10-year survey"
  413. "The clinical significance of measles: A review"
  414. "Health burden of pertussis in adolescents and adults"
  415. "Number of antigens in early childhood vaccines and neuropsychological outcomes at age 7–10 years"
  416. "On-time vaccine receipt in the first year does not adversely affect neuropsychological outcomes"
  417. "Timely versus delayed early childhood vaccination and seizures"
  418. "Association between undervaccination with diphtheria, tetanus toxoids, and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine and risk of pertussis infection in children 3 to 36 months of age"
  419. "Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination and infant mortality"
  420. "Difficulties in eliminating measles and controlling rubella and mumps: a cross-sectional study of a first measles and rubella vaccination and a second measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination"
  421. "First pertussis vaccine dose and prevention of infant mortality"
  422. "The effect of oral polio vaccine at birth on infant mortality: a randomized trial"
  423. "Vaccine myths" (DOI: 10.1126/science.356.6336.368)
  424. https://healthimpactnews.com/2016/aluminum-adjuvants-plus-gardasil-vaccine-uniquely-damaging-neuroinflammatory-cocktail/
  425. https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2012/04/11/vaccination-impact-on-childrens-health.aspx
  426. https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2011/11/03/right-vaccine-dosage-for-babies.aspx
  427. "Vaccines for measles, mumps and rubella in children" (2012; DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD004407.pub3)
  428. "Vaccine refusal, mandatory immunization, and the risks of vaccine-preventable diseases"
  429. "Effect of age on the risk of fever and seizures following immunization with measles-containing vaccines in children"
  430. "Hypothermia prevention and treatment" (DOI: "10.1111/j.1365-2044.1998.tb15151.x")
  431. "Swaddling: a systematic review"
  432. "Infant deaths and injuries associated with wearable blankets, swaddle wraps, and swaddling"
  433. "Air pollution, greenhouse gases and climate change: Global and regional perspectives"
  434. "Man-made carbon dioxide and the “greenhouse” effect"
  435. "Changes in the fabric of the Arctic’s greenhouse blanket"
  436. "Spatial patterns of modeled climate feedback and contributions to temperature response and polar amplification"
  437. "How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?"
  438. "Four perspectives on climate feedbacks"
  439. "ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models"
  440. "Advances in understanding top-of-atmosphere radiation variability from satellite observations"
  441. "Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty"
  442. "The ENSO effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere cloud radiative effects in CMIP5 models"
  443. "Global monthly precipitation estimates from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation"
  444. "An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950"
  445. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (accessed June 12, 2017)
  446. "Ranking the strongest ENSO events while incorporating SST uncertainty"
  447. "Changing atmospheric CO2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate"
  448. "Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records"
  449. "Addendum: Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records"
  450. "Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100"
  451. "Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem" [2009; doi: 10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834]
  452. "History of seawater carbonate chemistry, atmospheric CO2, and ocean acidification"
  453. "The geological record of ocean acidification"
  454. "A time-series view of changing ocean chemistry due to ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and ocean acidification"
  455. "Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction"
  456. "End-Permian mass extinction in the oceans: An ancient analog for the twenty-first century?"
  457. "Climatic and biotic upheavals following the end-Permian mass extinction"
  458. "Initial pulse of Siberian Traps sills as the trigger of the end-Permian mass extinction"
  459. "Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction"
  460. "Could a potential Anthropocene mass extinction define a new geological period?"
  461. "Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions"
  462. "Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California"
  463. "Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014"
  464. "Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences"
  465. "Influence of anthropogenic climate change on planetary wave resonance and extreme weather events"
  466. "Global sea level linked to global temperature"
  467. "Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era"
  468. "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era"
  469. "Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales"
  470. "Internal variability versus anthropogenic forcing on sea level and its components"
  471. "Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level"
  472. "Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise"
  473. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850"
  474. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970"
  475. "Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise"
  476. "Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?"
  477. "Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change"
  478. "Model estimates of sea-level change due to anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial water storage"
  479. "Uncovering an anthropogenic sea-level rise signal in the Pacific Ocean"
  480. "The rate of sea-level rise"
  481. "Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming"
  482. "Climate change 2007: Working Group I: The physical science basis; FAQ 2.1: "How do human activities contribute to climate change and how do they compare with natural influences?"
  483. "Climate change 2007: Synthesis report; Summary for policymakers"
  484. "Annual global fossil-fuel carbon emissions - graphics" [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1gEwklXgAE4sxa.jpg]
  485. "The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation"
  486. "The origin and limits of the near proportionality between climate warming and cumulative CO2 emissions"
  487. "Deducing multidecadal anthropogenic global warming trends using multiple regression analysis"
  488. "Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records"
  489. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions"
  490. "The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing"
  491. "Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake"
  492. "Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents" ["Corrigendum: Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents"]
  493. "Estimating changes in global temperature since the preindustrial period"
  494. "Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C"
  495. "Internet blogs, polar bears, and climate-change denial by proxy"
  496. "Condoms for sexually transmissible infection prevention: politics versus science"
  497. "Public health advocates say campaign to disparage condoms threatens STD prevention efforts"
  498. Rational Speaking podcast: "RS 174 - John Ioannidis on "What happened to Evidence-based medicine?""
  499. "Advancing the science of climate change (2010)"
  500. https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ [http://archive.is/mtzam]
  501. "Why most published research findings are false"
  502. "Most published research findings are false—But a little replication goes a long way"
  503. "Why most published research findings are false: Problems in the analysis"
  504. "Why most published research findings are false: Author’s reply to Goodman and Greenland"
  505. https://judithcurry.com/2016/07/06/is-much-of-current-climate-research-useless/
  506. https://judithcurry.com/2015/05/14/tackling-human-biases-in-science/
  507. https://judithcurry.com/2012/07/01/epidemic-of-false-claims/
  508. https://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-how-climate-alarm-becomes-self-promulgating-collective-belief
  509. http://reason.com/archives/2016/08/26/most-scientific-results-are-wrong-or-use
  510. https://spectator.org/cabinet-science-denial-or-scientific-skepticism/
  511. https://judithcurry.com/2017/11/03/steve-koonin-a-deceptive-new-report-on-climate/#comment-861117
  512. "HPV vaccine and behavioral disinhibition"
  513. "Parents’ and sons’ beliefs in sexual disinhibition after human papillomavirus vaccination"
  514. "Most parents do not think receiving human papillomavirus vaccine would encourage sexual activity in their children"
  515. "A tale of two vaccines—and their science communication environments"
  516. https://www.thenation.com/article/virginity-or-death/
  517. "Tempest in a teapot: A systematic review of HPV vaccination and risk compensation research"
  518. "No evidence that HPV vaccination leads to sexual risk compensation"
  519. "Human papillomavirus vaccine-related risk perceptions and subsequent sexual behaviors and sexually transmitted infections among vaccinated adolescent women"
  520. "Human papillomavirus vaccine-related risk perceptions do not predict sexual initiation among young women over 30 months following vaccination"
  521. "A prophylactic quadrivalent vaccine for the prevention of infection and disease related to HPV-6, -11, -16 and -18"
  522. "The efficacy and safety of the quadrivalent human papillomavirus 6/11/16/18 vaccine Gardasil"
  523. "The early benefits of human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical dysplasia and anogenital warts"
  524. "Reduction of low- and high-grade cervical abnormalities associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine in Scotland"
  525. "Effect of human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical cancer screening in Alberta"
  526. "Effect of HPV on cervical cancer screening in Alberta
  527. "Effectiveness of quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine for the prevention of cervical abnormalities: case-control study nested within a population based screening programme in Australia"
  528. "Early impact of human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical neoplasia--nationwide follow-up of young Danish women"
  529. "Impact of a population-based HPV vaccination program on cervical abnormalities: a data linkage study"
  530. "With God on their side: How Christian fundamentalists trampled science, policy, and democracy in George W. Bush's White House"
  531. "Effect of condom use on per-act HSV-2 transmission risk in HIV-1, HSV-2-discordant couples"
  532. "Consistent condom use reduces the genital human papillomavirus burden among high-risk men: the HPV infection in men study"
  533. "Condom use in prevention of human papillomavirus infections and cervical neoplasia: systematic review of longitudinal studies"
  534. "Condom use and the risk of genital human papillomavirus infection in young women"
  535. "Condom use promotes regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and clearance of human papillomavirus: A randomized clinical trial"
  536. "A pooled analysis of the effect of condoms in preventing HSV-2 acquisition"
  537. "The relationship between condom use and herpes simplex virus acquisition"
  538. "Case-crossover analysis of condom use and HSV-2 acquisition"
  539. "Assessment of herd immunity and cross-protection after a human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Australia: a repeat cross-sectional study"
  540. "Human papillomavirus prevalence and herd immunity after introduction of vaccination program, Scotland, 2009–2013"
  541. https://www.cdc.gov/condomeffectiveness/latex.html
  542. "Convergent Cenozoic CO2 history"
  543. "Comment on ‘Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses’ by H. J. Zwally and others"
  544. "A multi-approach strategy in climate attribution studies: Is it possible to apply a robustness framework?"
  545. "Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science"
  546. "Attribution: Robustness of warming attribution"
  547. "Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records"
  548. "An ensemble of ocean reanalyses for 1815–2013 with sparse observational input"
  549. "Tropospheric moisture in the Southwest Pacific as revealed by homogenized radiosonde data: climatology and decadal trend"
  550. "Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for understanding and reconciling differences"
  551. "Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy"
  552. "Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere"
  553. "Urban heat island effects on estimates of observed climate change"
  554. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadat/index.html
  555. "The reproducibility of observational estimates of surface and atmospheric temperature change"
  556. "A bias in the midtropospheric channel warm target factor on the NOAA-9 Microwave Sounding Unit"
  557. "Reply to “Comments on 'A bias in the midtropospheric channel warm target factor on the NOAA-9 Microwave Sounding Unit'"
  558. "A comparative analysis of data derived from orbiting MSU/AMSU instruments"
  559. "Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends"
  560. "Climate sensitivity uncertainty: When is good news bad?"
  561. "Recent progress in constraining climate sensitivity with model ensembles"
  562. "Reducing the uncertainty in subtropical cloud feedback"
  563. "Are climate model simulations of clouds improving? An evaluation using the ISCCP simulator"
  564. "On the response of MODIS cloud coverage to global mean surface air temperature: Ts-mediated cloud response by MODIS"
  565. "Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes"
  566. "Positive feedback in natural systems"
  567. "Robust, tunable biological oscillations from interlinked positive and negative feedback loops"
  568. "Interlinked fast and slow positive feedback loops drive reliable cell decisions"
  569. "Building biological memory by linking positive feedback loops"
  570. "Positive feedbacks of coagulation: Their role in threshold regulation"
  571. "James Croll in context: The encounter between climate dynamics and geology in the second half of the nineteenth century"
  572. "Blood coagulation: hemostasis and thrombin regulation"
  573. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/06/16/ideological-divide-over-global-warming-as-wide-as-ever/
  574. http://www.pewinternet.org/interactives/public-scientists-opinion-gap/
  575. http://www.gallup.com/poll/182807/conservative-republicans-alone-global-warming-timing.aspx?g_source=CATEGORY_CLIMATE_CHANGE&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles
  576. http://www.gallup.com/poll/190010/concern-global-warming-eight-year-high.aspx
  577. "Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change"
  578. "A four-party view of US environmental concern"
  579. "Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51–69.]: Isotopes ignored"
  580. "Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” by Humlum, Stordahl and Solheim"
  581. "Linking emissions of fossil fuel CO2 and other anthropogenic trace gases using atmospheric 14CO2"
  582. "Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks"
  583. "Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?"
  584. "Deep carbon emissions from volcanoes"
  585. "Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean"
  586. "Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years"
  587. "The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2"
  588. "Agreement of CMIP5 simulated and observed ocean anthropogenic CO2 uptake"
  589. "Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends"
  590. "Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange and ocean equilibrium chemistry"
  591. http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/07/23/elaborating-on-the-views-of-aaas-scientists-issue-by-issue/ ("Earth scientists views on climate change")
  592. "The Bray and von Storch 5th International Survey of Climate Scientists 2015/2016"
  593. "Climate change evidence & causes: An overview from the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences"
  594. "National security implications of climate-related risks and a changing climate"
  595. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation"
  596. "World scientists’ warning to humanity: A second notice"
  597. "Nutrition and income from molluscs today imply vulnerability to ocean acidification tomorrow"
  598. "Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition" (DOI: 10.1038/nature13179)
  599. "Effects of elevated CO2 on the protein concentration of food crops: a meta-analysis"
  600. "Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s"
  601. "Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods"
  602. "Global warming can negate the expected CO2 stimulation in photosynthesis and productivity for soybean grown in the Midwestern United States"
  603. "Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants"
  604. "Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change"
  605. "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous"
  606. "Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise"
  607. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities"
  608. "Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise"
  609. "Loss of cultural world heritage and currently inhabited places to sea-level rise"
  610. "A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA"
  611. "Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services"
  612. "Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia"
  613. "Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health"
  614. "Climate change and infectious diseases: From evidence to a predictive framework"
  615. "Tropical cyclones and climate change" (DOI: 10.1002/wcc.371)
  616. "Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change"
  617. "Economic losses from US hurricanes consistent with an influence from climate change"
  618. "Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests"
  619. "Extreme fire season in California: A glimpse into the future?
  620. "Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change"
  621. "Comparison of dryland climate change in observations and CMIP5 simulations"
  622. "Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979"
  623. "Climate warming will not decrease winter mortality"
  624. "Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?"
  625. "Winter mortality in a warming climate: a reassessment"
  626. "Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: A systematic review"
  627. "Heat-related mortality and adaptation to heat in the United States"
  628. "Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s"
  629. "Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia"
  630. https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2015/06/climate-wars-done-science/
  631. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/21/apocalypse-maybe/
  632. David Evans': "The Missing Hotspot"
  633. "A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials"
  634. "The 100,000-year ice-age cycle identified and found to lag temperature, carbon dioxide, and orbital eccentricity"
  635. "The role of orbital forcing in the early middle pleistocene transition"
  636. "Southern Ocean dust–climate coupling over the past four million years"
  637. "Late Neogene history of deepwater ventilation in the Southern Ocean"
  638. "Revealing the climate of snowball Earth from ?17O systematics of hydrothermal rocks"
  639. "Re-Os geochronology and coupled Os-Sr isotope constraints on the Sturtian snowball Earth"
  640. "Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across Termination III"
  641. "Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation"
  642. "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica"
  643. "Orbitally forced ice sheet fluctuations in snowball Earth"
  644. "Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide"
  645. "Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus"
  646. "Delayed onset of runaway and moist greenhouse climates for Earth"
  647. "The Runaway Greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres"
  648. "Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates"
  649. Youtube, ΛΞЯ-'s video: "The Runaway Greenhouse Effect - James Hansen"
  650. "Annex C: Cross cutting theme paper 4: Assessing the science to address UNFCCC Article 2; A concept paper relating to cross cutting theme number four" ("a “runaway greenhouse effect”—analogous to Venus--appears to have virtually no chance of being induced by anthropogenic activities")
  651. https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/smoking-doesnt-kill-and-other-great-old-op-eds-from-mike-pen?utm_term=.bqwPJaaal#.rfYbM444J (see: http://web.archive.org/web/20000417191056/http://www.mikepence.com/)
  652. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/mike-pence-smoking/
  653. "Comment on “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” by J. A. Curry and P. J. Webster"
  654. "On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality"
  655. "Systemic effects of smoking" (DOI: 10.1378/chest.06-2179)
  656. "Pathobiology of cigarette smoke-induced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease"
  657. "21st-century hazards of smoking and benefits of cessation in the United States"
  658. "Knight's Forensic Pathology, Fourth Edition"
  659. "Fundamentals of Forensic Science, Third Edition"
  660. "Executive Summary: Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere - Understanding and reconciling differences"
  661. "Toxicity of roundup-tolerant genetically modified maize is not supported by statistical tests"
  662. Retraction notice and sources linked with: "RETRACTED: Long term toxicity of a Roundup herbicide and a Roundup-tolerant genetically modified maize"
  663. "Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change"
  664. "Climate trends and global crop production since 1980"
  665. https://principia-scientific.org/bad-measuring-made-co2-our-climates-control-knob/
  666. Youtube, potholer54's video: "Response to Patrick Moore's "What They Haven't Told You about Climate Change”"
  667. Youtube, potholer54's video: "Top 10 climate change myths (find the answer to your favorite)"
  668. Youtube, potholer54's video: "Monckton Bunkum Part 3 - Correlations and Himalayan glaciers"
  669. "Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years"
  670. "Solar interior structure and luminosity variations"
  671. "The faint young Sun paradox: an observational test of an alternative solar model"
  672. "Faint young Sun paradox remains"
  673. "The faint young Sun problem" (DOI: 10.1029/2011RG000375)
  674. "Earth's air pressure 2.7 billion years ago constrained to less than half of modern levels"
  675. "Implications of solar evolution for the Earth's early atmosphere"
  676. "Earth and Mars: evolution of atmospheres and surface temperatures"
  677. Youtube, potholer54's video: "27 -- The evidence for climate change WITHOUT computer models or the IPCC"
  678. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/study-climate-460-mya-was-like-today-but-thought-to-have-co2-levels-20-times-as-high/
  679. http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.ca/2013/11/new-research-group-to-determine-why.html
  680. http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/04/28/what-to-expect-when-co2-hits-400-ppm-the-climate-doesnt-care-about-human-neuroses-or-political-agendas-corals-evolved-with-co2-levels-above-4000-ppm-co2/
  681. https://wryheat.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/some-basic-facts-on-carbon-dioxide-and-climate/
  682. "Whole atmosphere simulation of anthropogenic climate change"
  683. "Attributing the forced components of observed stratospheric temperature variability to external drivers"
  684. "Do models underestimate the solar contribution to recent climate change?"
  685. "Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature"
  686. "Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes"
  687. "Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model"
  688. "The greenhouse theory of climate change: A test by an inadvertent global experiment"
  689. "Robustness of dynamical feedbacks from radiative forcing: 2% solar versus 2× CO2 experiments in an idealized GCM"
  690. "Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings"
  691. "Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble"
  692. "Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere"
  693. "Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method"
  694. "Use of SSU/MSU satellite observations to validate upper atmospheric temperature trends in CMIP5 simulations"
  695. "Postmillennium changes in stratospheric temperature consistently resolved by GPS radio occultation and AMSU observations"
  696. "Principles of planetary climate"
  697. "Global physical climatology"
  698. "Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling"
  699. "Relative contribution of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances to temperature trends in the stratosphere: A chemistry–climate model study"
  700. "Troposphere-stratosphere temperature trends derived from satellite data compared with ensemble simulations from WACCM"
  701. "Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity"
  702. "Progress in observations and simulations of global change in the upper atmosphere"
  703. "The ozone story: A model for addressing climate change?"
  704. "Depletion of the ozone layer in the 21st Century"
  705. "The Antarctic ozone hole: An update"
  706. "Antarctic ozone loss in 1979–2010: First sign of ozone recovery"
  707. "Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol"
  708. "Evidence for the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer"
  709. "Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer"
  710. "Ozone depletion, greenhouse gases, and climate change"
  711. "Trace gas trends and their potential role in climate change"
  712. "A hiatus in the stratosphere?"
  713. "Stratospheric temperature climate data record from merged SSU and AMSU-A observations"
  714. "Stratospheric temperature trends over 1979–2015 derived from combined SSU, MLS, and SABER satellite observations"
  715. "The impact of ozone-depleting substances on tropical upwelling, as revealed by the absence of lower-stratospheric cooling since the late 1990s"
  716. "Stratospheric temperature changes during the satellite era"
  717. "On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere"
  718. "Observed tropospheric temperature response to 11-yr solar cycle and what it reveals about mechanisms"
  719. "Evidence for an earlier greenhouse cooling effect in the stratosphere before 1980 over the Northern Hemisphere"
  720. "Regional and seasonal stratospheric temperature trends in the last decade (2002–2014) from AMSU observations"
  721. "A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU"
  722. "Linear trends and closures of 10-yr observations of AIRS stratospheric channels"
  723. "The stratospheric changes inferred from 10 years of AIRS and AMSU-A radiances"
  724. "The JRA-55 reanalysis: Representation of atmospheric circulation and climate variability"
  725. "The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics"
  726. "Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations"
  727. "Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model"
  728. "Long-term temperature trends in the stratosphere: Possible influence of anthropogenic gases"
  729. "Major greenhouse cooling (yes, cooling): The upper atmosphere response to increased CO2"
  730. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/27/new-wuwt-tv-segment-slaying-the-slayers-with-watts/
  731. "Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)"
  732. https://judithcurry.com/2010/11/30/physics-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect/#comment-16916
  733. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/27/new-wuwt-tv-segment-slaying-the-slayers-with-watts/#comment-1318329
  734. http://joannenova.com.au/tag/slayers/
  735. "Some thoughts on global climate change: The transition from icehouse to hothouse"
  736. "Mechanisms of cigarette smoke-induced COPD: insights from animal models"
  737. "Inflammatory diseases of the lung induced by conventional cigarette smoke: a review"
  738. "Atmospheric temperature change detection with GPS radio occultation 1995 to 2008"
  739. "Atmospheric climate change detection by radio occultation data using a fingerprinting method"
  740. http://www.remss.com/research/climate/
  741. "Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool: Monthly/seasonal time series" https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl
  742. "Web-Based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) for analysis and comparison of reanalyses and other datasets"
  743. "Stratospheric temperature trends: Our evolving understanding"
  744. "Sensitivity of surface-temperature and atmospheric-temperature to perturbations in stratospheric concentration of ozone and nitrogen-dioxide"
  745. "Exxon Research and Engineering Company's technological forecast CO2 greenhouse effect"
  746. "Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014)"
  747. "Responsible for what? Carbon producer CO2 contributions and the energy transition"
  748. https://www.smokeandfumes.org/fumes ("A Crack in the Shell: New documents expose a hidden climate history (April 2018)")
  749. "Sources, abundance, and fate of gaseous atmospheric pollutants. Final report and supplement" [https://www.smokeandfumes.org/documents/16]
  750. "Radiocarbon evidence on the dilution of atmospheric and oceanic carbon by carbon from fossil fuels" [https://www.smokeandfumes.org/documents/7]
  751. "Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls"
  752. "Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends"
  753. Hansen et al.: "Global temperature in 2015"
  754. "Assessing the impact of satellite-based observations in sea surface temperature trends"
  755. "A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change"
  756. "Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus"
  757. "Land surface temperature over global deserts: Means, variability, and trends"
  758. "On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming"
  759. "Global land-surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset"
  760. "Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures"
  761. "A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era"
  762. "Global and hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations"
  763. "Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years"
  764. "A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets"
  765. "Tropospheric warming over the past two decades"
  766. "Advanced parental age and autism risk in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis"
  767. "Advancing paternal age and risk of autism: new evidence from a population-based study and a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies"
  768. "Advancing maternal age is associated with increasing risk for autism: a review and meta-analysis"
  769. "Autism risk associated with parental age and with increasing difference in age between the parents"
  770. "Parental age and the risk of autism spectrum disorders: findings from a Swedish population-based cohort"
  771. "Autism risk across generations: A population-based study of advancing grandpaternal and paternal age"
  772. "Parental age and risk of autism spectrum disorders in a Finnish national birth cohort"
  773. "Maternal and paternal age are jointly associated with childhood autism in Jamaica"
  774. "Paternal age and risk of autism in an ethnically diverse, non-industrialized setting: Aruba"
  775. "Prenatal, perinatal and neonatal risk factors of Autism Spectrum Disorder: A comprehensive epidemiological assessment from India"
  776. "Prenatal, perinatal, and neonatal risk factors of autism spectrum disorder"
  777. "The role of de novo mutations in the genetics of autism spectrum disorders"
  778. "Transcriptomic analysis of autistic brain reveals convergent molecular pathology"
  779. "De novo insertions and deletions of predominantly paternal origin are associated with autism spectrum disorder"
  780. "Sporadic autism exomes reveal a highly interconnected protein network of de novo mutations"
  781. "De novo mutations revealed by whole-exome sequencing are strongly associated with autism"
  782. "Autism spectrum disorders and autistic traits: a decade of new twin studies"
  783. "Heritability of autism spectrum disorders: a meta-analysis of twin studies"
  784. "Common genetic variants on 5p14.1 associate with autism spectrum disorders"
  785. "The epidemiology and global burden of autism spectrum disorders"
  786. "The increasing prevalence of autism spectrum disorders"
  787. "Three reasons not to believe in an autism epidemic"
  788. "Global prevalence of autism and other pervasive developmental disorders"
  789. "The epidemiology of autistic spectrum disorders: is the prevalence rising?"
  790. "Diagnostic change and the increased prevalence of autism"
  791. https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/topics.html
  792. "A model estimate of cooling in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere due to the CO2 increase over the last 3–4 decades"
  793. "Evidence of CO2-induced progressive cooling of the middle atmosphere derived from radio observations"
  794. "Ozone and temperature decadal trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere, based on measurements from SABER on TIMED"
  795. "Why CO2 cools the middle atmosphere-a consolidating model perspective"
  796. "Effect of trends of middle atmosphere gases on the mesosphere and thermosphere"
  797. "How will changes in carbon dioxide and methane modify the mean structure of the mesosphere and thermosphere?"
  798. "Temperature trends in the midlatitude summer mesosphere"
  799. "Global change in the upper atmosphere"
  800. "A review of recent progress in trends in the upper atmosphere"
  801. "Decadal variability in PMCs and implications for changing temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere"
  802. "Upper atmosphere cooling over the past 33 years"
  803. "Trends in the neutral and ionized upper atmosphere"
  804. "Long-term climate change in the D-region"
  805. "Dependence of the land-sea contrast in surface climate response on the nature of the forcing"
  806. "Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing"
  807. "Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models"
  808. "Characteristics of temperature change in China over the last 2000 years and spatial patterns of dryness/wetness during cold and warm periods"
  809. "Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century"
  810. "Climate sensitivity during the Phanerozoic: Lessons for the future"
  811. "The impact of the revised sunspot record on solar irradiance reconstructions"
  812. "Solar influences on climate" (DOI: 10.1029/2009RG000282)
  813. "Cosmic rays, solar activity and the climate"
  814. "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years"
  815. "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature"
  816. "Errors in Celia Farber's March 2006 article in Harper's Magazine"
  817. "Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land"
  818. "Global dimming and brightening: A review"
  819. "On the relationship between diurnal temperature range and surface solar radiation in Europe"
  820. "Detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing to diurnal temperature range changes from 1950 to 1999: comparing multi-model simulations with observations"
  821. "Spatial dependence of diurnal temperature range trends on precipitation from 1950 to 2004"
  822. "Diurnal temperature range over Europe between 1950 and 2005"
  823. "Reassessing changes in diurnal temperature range: Intercomparison and evaluation of existing global data set estimates"
  824. "Reassessing changes in diurnal temperature range: A new data set and characterization of data biases"
  825. "Climates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries simulated by the NCAR climate system model"
  826. "Daily maximum and minimum temperature trends in a climate model"
  827. "Factors contributing to diurnal temperature range trends in twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of the CCCma coupled model"
  828. "Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation"
  829. "Argumentation and fallacies in creationist writings against evolutionary theory"
  830. Roger C. Wiens': "Radiometric dating: A Christian perspective"
  831. "Sceptics and deniers of climate change not to be confused"
  832. https://answersingenesis.org/days-of-creation/could-god-really-have-created-everything-in-six-days/
  833. https://creation.com/how-old-is-the-earth
  834. http://www.icr.org/biological-clocks
  835. "Investigating the effects of knowledge and ideology on climate change beliefs"
  836. "Overcoming skepticism with education: interacting influences of worldview and climate change knowledge on perceived climate change risk among adolescents"
  837. "Consumers’ knowledge about climate change"
  838. "Knowledge as a driver of public perceptions about climate change reassessed"
  839. "Public perception of climate change: The importance of knowledge and cultural worldviews"
  840. https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2011/12/24/cbs-sings-praises-of-fat.aspx
  841. https://thebigfatsurprise.com/media/radio/ (https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2014/05/07/like_junk_science_on_the_climate_saturated_fat_fearmongering_has_been_exposed_as_baseless)
  842. http://theconservative.online/article/the_government_has_been_meddling_in_food_and_nutrition_for_a_long_time
  843. https://www.nationalreview.com/2014/05/saturated-fat-and-skepticism-mona-charen/
  844. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-questionable-link-between-saturated-fat-and-heart-disease-1399070926
  845. http://nationalpost.com/opinion/colby-cosh-the-ghost-of-a-notion-can-we-abandon-old-ideas-about-dietary-fat
  846. http://www.independent.org/issues/article.asp?id=7384 ("Bacon and eggs won’t kill you (But making Uncle Sam your nutritionist might)")
  847. https://www.lewrockwell.com/2011/09/joseph-mercola/7-reasons-to-eat-more-saturated-fat/
  848. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21602984-why-everything-you-heard-about-fat-wrong-case-eating-steak-and-cream
  849. http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/weighing-the-evidence/
  850. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/25/saturated-fats-heart-attack-risk-low-fat-foods-cardiologists
  851. Youtube, Plant Positive's channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrimitiveNutrition/playlists
  852. "Saturated fat and heart disease: The latest evidence"
  853. "Saturated fatty acids and coronary heart disease risk: the debate goes on"
  854. "A systematic review of the effect of dietary saturated and polyunsaturated fat on heart disease"
  855. "Reduction in saturated fat intake for cardiovascular disease"
  856. "Association of specific dietary fats with total and cause-specific mortality"
  857. "Saturated fats versus polyunsaturated fats versus carbohydrates for cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment"
  858. "Saturated fats compared with unsaturated fats and sources of carbohydrates in relation to risk of coronary heart disease: a prospective cohort study"
  859. "Dairy fat and risk of cardiovascular disease in 3 cohorts of US adults"
  860. "Dietary guidelines: 2015 - 2020" (Chapter 1: "Key elements of healthy eating patterns")
  861. "The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity"
  862. "Planck 2015 results: XIII. Cosmological parameters"
  863. "Nine-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations: Final maps and results"
  864. "Setting new constraints on the age of the universe"
  865. "The age of the universe and the cosmological constant determined from cosmic microwave background anisotropy measurements"
  866. "Encyclopedia of paleoclimatology and ancient environments: Radiocarbon dating" (DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4020-4411-3)
  867. "The age of the Earth in the twentieth century: a problem (mostly) solved"
  868. "Organic-walled microfossils in 3.2-billion-year-old shallow-marine siliciclastic deposits"
  869. "Estimating the timing of early eukaryotic diversification with multigene molecular clocks"
  870. "Can modern evolutionary theory explain macroevolution?"
  871. "Exploring macroevolution using modern and fossil data"
  872. "Climate modes of the Phanerozoic" (https://books.google.ca/books?id=EJlm8WH2lWoC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Climate+Modes+of+the+Phanerozoic&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiB4LDEkdjaAhVo34MKHSjaB9UQ6AEIJjAA#v=onepage&q=Climate%20Modes%20of%20the%20Phanerozoic&f=false)
  873. "Gondwanan palaeogeography and paleoclimatology" [DOI: 10.1016/S0899-5362(98)00084-0]
  874. "Geocarb III: A revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time"
  875. "Inclusion of the weathering of volcanic rocks in the GEOCARBSULF model"
  876. "Addendum to: "Inclusion of the weathering of volcanic rocks in the GEOCARBSULF model" RA Berner, 2006, V. 306, p. 295–302)."
  877. "GEOCARBSULF: A combined model for Phanerozoic atmospheric O2 and CO2"
  878. "Error analysis of CO2 and O2 estimates from the long-term geochemical model GEOCARBSULF"
  879. "A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea"
  880. "The medieval quiet period"
  881. "The forensic laboratory handbook procedures and practice"
  882. "Forensic chemistry handbook"
  883. "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010"
  884. "Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled"
  885. "Can solar variability explain global warming since 1970?
  886. "Solar variability and global warming: a statistical comparison since 1850"
  887. "Statistical assessments of anthropogenic and natural global climate forcing. An update"
  888. "Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century"
  889. "Causes of the global warming observed since the 19th century"
  890. "Solar activity and the mean global temperature"
  891. "Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature"
  892. "Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements"
  893. "Solar influence on global and regional climates"
  894. "Investigation of cosmic ray–cloud connections using MISR"
  895. "Are there persistent physical atmospheric responses to galactic cosmic rays?"
  896. "Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature"
  897. "Equilibrium climate sensitivity in light of observations over the warming hiatus"
  898. Foster et al.: "Comment on “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” by J. D. McLean,C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter"
  899. "North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability"
  900. "The Atlanto-Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record"
  901. "Interactive comment on "Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data" by J. Mikšovský et al."
  902. "Low-pass filtering, heat flux, and Atlantic multidecadal variability"
  903. "Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework"
  904. "Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the instrumental temperature record"
  905. "Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations"
  906. "Ocean mediation of tropospheric response to reflecting and absorbing aerosols"
  907. "Significant aerosol influence on the recent decadal decrease in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific: Aerosol influence on decadal TC activity"
  908. "Climate variability during warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 1871–2008"
  909. "Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle"
  910. "A new estimate of the average earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011"
  911. "Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures"
  912. "On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO"
  913. "Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years"
  914. "The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere"
  915. "Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data"
  916. "Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic"
  917. Youtube, potholer54's video: "Why global temperatures never go up in straight lines"
  918. "Global warming: Understanding the forecast"
  919. Grunewald and Bury's: "Comment on "Long term toxicity of a Roundup herbicide and a Roundup-tolerant genetically modified maize" by Séralini et al."
  920. https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2014/06/24/scientists-react-to-republished-seralini-maize-rat-study/
  921. http://www.foodstandards.gov.au/consumer/gmfood/seralini/Pages/default.aspx
  922. "Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years"
  923. "Cenozoic mean greenhouse gases and temperature changes with reference to the Anthropocene"
  924. "Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception"
  925. "A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation"
  926. "On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth"
  927. "Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone"
  928. "What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?"
  929. "Could a future “Grand Solar Minimum” like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?"
  930. "Deep solar minimum and global climate changes"
  931. "Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum"
  932. "Lead–lag relationships between global mean temperature and the atmospheric CO2 content in dependence of the type and time scale of the forcing"
  933. "Comment on "The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature"" [DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.03.010]
  934. "AIDS denialism and public health practice"
  935. "Issues related to the use of one-dimensional ocean-diffusion models for determining climate sensitivity"
  936. "Learning from mistakes in climate research"
  937. "Agnotology: learning from mistakes"
  938. "A blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data"
  939. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/skeptical-arguments-that-dont-hold-water/
  940. https://us-issues.com/2018/01/04/how-to-discuss-global-warming-with-a-climate-alarmist/
  941. "Assessment of the health impact of GM plant diets in long-term and multigenerational animal feeding trials: A literature review"
  942. "Parental refusal of pertussis vaccination is associated with an increased risk of pertussis infection in children"
  943. "The childhood immunization schedule and safety: Stakeholder concerns, scientific evidence, and future studies"
  944. "Physicians who do and do not recommend children get all vaccinations"
  945. "How do physicians immunize their own children? Differences among pediatricians and nonpediatricians"
  946. "General practitioners' concerns about childhood immunisation and suggestions for improving professional support and vaccine uptake"
  947. "Association of vaccine-related attitudes and beliefs between parents and health care providers"
  948. "Mandatory immunization: the point of view of the French general population and practitioners"
  949. "Stomatal proxy record of CO2 concentrations from the last termination suggests an important role for CO2 at climate change transitions"
  950. https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/image277.gif
  951. "Smoke-free legislation and hospitalizations for childhood asthma"
  952. "Trends in pCO2 and sea–air CO2 flux over the global open oceans for the last two decades" (summarized in "Global ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake: Distribution and temporal variation")
  953. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/basics.html
  954. "Youtube, Tony Heller' video: "The Climate Control Knob"
  955. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/05/14/two-competing-narratives-on-carbon-dioxide/
  956. https://principia-scientific.org/top-lukewarmist-fred-singer-now-admits-co2-cools-climate/
  957. https://realclimatescience.com/2017/11/just-when-you-thought-climate-experts-couldnt-get-any-more-cynical-or-stupid/
  958. http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/GreggThompson_short.pdf ("How well has the media and government informed the public about CO2 levels in the air?")
  959. https://principia-scientific.org/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide/
  960. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/13/peabody-energy-coal-mining-climate-change-denial-funding
  961. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/feb/22/fossil-fuel-funded-report-denies-the-expert-global-warming-consensus
  962. http://dieoff.org/page82.htm#1 ("The heat is on: The warming of the world's climate sparks a blaze of denial")
  963. https://www.desmogblog.com/craig-idso
  964. "Neurologic disorders after measles-mumps-rubella vaccination"
  965. "A population-based study of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination and autism"
  966. "Heritability of autism spectrum disorder in a UK population-based twin sample"
  967. "Vaccines for measles, mumps and rubella in children" (2013; DOI: 10.1002/ebch.1948)
  968. Youtube, 1000frolly's video: "Climatology is a "Joke" - Nobel Laureate Dr Kary Mullis"
  969. "Mass extinction events and the plant fossil record"
  970. "‘Nothing can be done until everything is done’: the use of complexity arguments by food, beverage, alcohol and gambling industries"
  971. "Global risk of deadly heat"
  972. "Distinct global warming rates tied to multiple ocean surface temperature changes"
  973. http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/current-issues/climate-policy/climate-perspectives/our-position
  974. "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide"
  975. "Climate trends and global crop production since 1980"
  976. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India"
  977. "Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall"
  978. https://judithcurry.com/2018/02/26/nature-unbound-viii-modern-global-warming/
  979. https://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/pdf/ERB_Litho_Edits_Percent_2016_v7.pdf ("The NASA Earth's energy budget poster")
  980. "An Earth's Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes"
  981. "A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900"
  982. Youtube, potholer54's video: "Response to Bill Whittle's "Is climate change real?""
  983. "An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress"
  984. "Greenhouse warming or Little Ice Age demise: A critical problem for climatology"
  985. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11645-climate-myths-we-are-simply-recovering-from-the-little-ice-age/
  986. https://www.skepticalscience.com/coming-out-of-little-ice-age-advanced.htm
  987. https://grist.org/article/we-are-just-recovering-from-the-lia/
  988. https://www.carbonbrief.org/is-climate-change-all-just-a-recovery-from-the-little-ice-age
  989. https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2014/06/19/recovering-from-the-lia/
  990. https://www.thegwpf.com/new-paper-confirms-little-ice-age-was-a-global-phenomenon/
  991. https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/6659-the-recovery-from-the-little-ice-age-and-global-warming
  992. https://wryheat.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/20th-century-temperatures-explained-as-natural-recovery-from-little-ice-age/
  993. http://www.wright.edu/~guy.vandegrift/climateblog/s06/akasofu.LIAge.pdf ("Is the Earth still recovering from the “Little Ice Age”? A possible cause of global warming")
  994. https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/&ref
  995. "A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years" [further discussion at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/response-by-marcott-et-al/]
  996. "Little Ice Age cold interval in West Antarctica: evidence from borehole temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) divide"
  997. Sam White's: "The real little ice age"
  998. "Continental-scale temperature variability during the last two millennia"
  999. "Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature: Did Europe experience a Little Ice Age?"
  1000. "The waning of the Little Ice Age: Climate change in early modern Europe"
  1001. "Dispositions" (DOI: 10.1002/9781118625392.wbecp255)
  1002. Cyril Michon's: "Opium's virtus dormitiva"
  1003. "Mechanisms are real and local"
  1004. "Dormitive virtues, scholastic qualities, and the new philosophies"
  1005. "Scientific explanation: Three basic conceptions"
  1006. https://judithcurry.com/2018/01/16/sea-level-rise-acceleration-or-not-part-i-introduction/#comment-864702
  1007. "Glacio-epochs and the supercontinent cycle after~ 3.0 Ga: tectonic boundary conditions for glaciation"
  1008. "Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?"
  1009. https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/08/31/papers-on-the-non-significant-role-of-cosmic-rays-in-climate/
  1010. "Recent unprecedented warming and oligotrophy of the eastern Mediterranean Sea within the last millennium"
  1011. "Unprecedented recent warming of surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean"
  1012. "Climatic warming increases voltinism in European butterflies and moths"
  1013. "Recent United Kingdom and global temperature variations"
  1014. "The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate"
  1015. "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data" ("Corrigendum: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data")
  1016. "Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia"
  1017. "Pacific ocean heat content during the past 10,000 years"
  1018. "Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium"
  1019. "Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate"
  1020. "Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence"
  1021. "Recent warming reverses long-term Arctic cooling"
  1022. "800-yr-long records of annual air temperature and precipitation over southern Siberia inferred from Teletskoye Lake sediments"
  1023. "Climate change 2013: Working Group I: The physical science basis; Chapter 5: Information from paleoclimate archives"
  1024. "Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations"
  1025. "Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update"
  1026. "Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies"
  1027. "Transient responses of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2. Part I. Annual mean response"
  1028. "An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations"
  1029. "Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change"
  1030. "Control of land-ocean temperature contrast by ocean heat uptake"
  1031. "Land–ocean warming contrast over a wide range of climates: Convective quasi-equilibrium theory and idealized simulations"
  1032. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/new-paper-shows-medieval-warm-period-was-global-in-scope/
  1033. Youtube, potholer54's video: "23 -- Medieval Warm Period -- fact vs. fiction"
  1034. "A lukewarmer's ten tests: What it would take to persuade me that current climate policy makes sense"
  1035. "Correction to: A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies"
  1036. "North American stratigraphic code" [DOI: 10.1306/07050504129]
  1037. https://judithcurry.com/2018/02/26/nature-unbound-viii-modern-global-warming/#comment-867530
  1038. https://judithcurry.com/2018/02/26/nature-unbound-viii-modern-global-warming/#comment-867662
  1039. "Comments on Loehle,“Correction to: A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies”, E&E, 18 (7 and 8), 2007"
  1040. "Corrigendum to ‘A review of Holocene solar-linked climatic variation on centennial to millennial timescales: Physical processes, interpretative frameworks and a new multiple cross-wavelet transform algorithm’ Earth Sci. Rev. 134 [1–15]"
  1041. "Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years"
  1042. "Climate skeptic’s fossil fuel funding puts spotlight on journal conflict policies"
  1043. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1531939-foia-response-willie-soon-2012.html
  1044. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/11/cclimate-sceptic-researcher-willie-soon-investigated-funding-fossil-fuel-firms (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/21/climate-change-denier-willie-soon-funded-energy-industry)
  1045. "Comment on “Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere” by H. Harde"
  1046. "Commentary: H. Harde: “Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere”. Global and Planetary Change 152 (2017), 19–26"
  1047. "On past temperatures and anomalous late-20th-century warmth"
  1048. "Stormy times for climate research"
  1049. Youtube, potholer54's video: "7. Climate Change - "Those" e-mails and science censorship"
  1050. "Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate"
  1051. "Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012"
  1052. "Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate"
  1053. "Revisiting the mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends"
  1054. "Stratospheric water vapor feedback" [DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1310344110]
  1055. "The impact of Miocene atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuations on climate and the evolution of terrestrial ecosystems"
  1056. http://www.c3headlines.com/2018/04/does-empirical-evidence-debunk-runaway-global-warming-consensus.html
  1057. "Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures"
  1058. "Construction and uncertainty estimation of a satellite-derived total precipitable water data record over the world's oceans"
  1059. https://twitter.com/kmp010/status/1009887583227269120 [https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1009950507379486720]
  1060. "Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms"
  1061. "Vaccination and all-cause child mortality from 1985 to 2011: global evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys"
  1062. "A revised 1000?year atmospheric d13C-CO2 record from Law Dome and South Pole, Antarctica"
  1063. "How high will the seas rise?"
  1064. "Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming"
  1065. "An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models"
  1066. "New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon"
  1067. "Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France"
  1068. "Solar models: Current epoch and time dependences, neutrinos, and helioseismological properties"
  1069. "Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond"
  1070. "Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society"
  1071. "Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models"
  1072. "Global biodiversity: Indicators of recent declines"
  1073. "Biodiversity risks from fossil fuel extraction"
  1074. "The greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide" (DOI: 10.1002/wea.2072)
  1075. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/01/evolutionary-and-global-warming-theory-predictable-responses-with-no-empirical-evidence/
  1076. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/01/science-and-religion-do-your-own-damn-google-search/
  1077. "High-precision geochronology confirms voluminous magmatism before, during, and after Earth’s most severe extinction"
  1078. "Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century"
  1079. "Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5°C and 2°C"
  1080. "Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature"
  1081. "Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales"
  1082. "Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity"
  1083. "Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being"
  1084. "Tobacco industry efforts subverting International Agency for Research on Cancer’s second-hand smoke study"
  1085. "Passive smoking and lung cancer risk: what is the story now?"
  1086. "Multicenter case-control study of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and lung cancer in Europe"
  1087. "Tobacco companies strategies to undermine tobacco control activities at the World Health Organization"
  1088. https://web.archive.org/web/20070208231619/http://www.who.int/inf-pr-1998/en/pr98-29.html ("Passive smoking does cause lung cancer, do not let them fool you")
  1089. "Thermal enhancement on planetary bodies and the relevance of the molar mass version of the ideal gas law to the null hypothesis of climate change"
  1090. "Vegetarian, vegan diets and multiple health outcomes: A systematic review with meta-analysis of observational studies"
  1091. "Vegetarian diets and blood pressure: A meta-analysis"
  1092. "Effects of vegetarian diets on blood lipids: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials"
  1093. "Global carbon budget 2015" (DOI: 10.5194/essd-7-349-2015)
  1094. "Trends and regional distributions of land and ocean carbon sinks"
  1095. https://judithcurry.com/2018/08/25/week-in-review-science-edition-85/#comment-879687 ("Vaccine deniers are like climate deniers; they are anti-science"; http://archive.is/uhnXi)
  1096. https://judithcurry.com/2018/08/25/week-in-review-science-edition-85/#comment-879236https://judithcurry.com/2018/08/25/week-in-review-science-edition-85/#comment-879087 ("I used to comment on articles in the NYTimes regarding vaccines [...]", "It strikes me as strange that those [...]"; http://archive.is/uhnXi)
  1097. "Health impact of measles vaccination in the United States"
  1098. "Rotavirus vaccination is associated with reduced seizure hospitalization risk among commercially insured US children"
  1099. "Association between estimated cumulative vaccine antigen exposure through the first 23 months of life and non–vaccine-targeted infections from 24 through 47 months of age"
  1100. "Patterns of childhood immunization and all-cause mortality"
  1101. "Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability to twentieth-century temperature changes"
  1102. http://brindabella.id.au/climarc/
  1103. https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1012977612820566016
  1104. "An examination of climate sensitivity for idealized climate change experiments in an intermediate general circulation model"
  1105. "Radiative forcing and climate response" [DOI: 10.1029/96JD03436]
  1106. "Efficacy of climate forcings" [DOI: 10.1029/2005JD005776]
  1107. "Enlightening global dimming and brightening"
  1108. "Global Warming (1970–Present)" [in "The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History", pages 321-328]
  1109. http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html
  1110. "Carbon dioxide: sometimes it is a cooling gas, sometimes a warming gas"
  1111. "Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence"
  1112. "Global warming and the end-Permian extinction event: Proxy and modeling perspectives"
  1113. "Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines"
  1114. "Vertebrate biodiversity losses point to a sixth mass extinction"
  1115. "Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans"
  1116. "Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?"
  1117. "Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web"
  1118. "The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection"
  1119. Mark Richardson's 2015 video: "UQx DENIAL101x 3.4.1.1 Structure of the atmosphere"
  1120. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/local/gray-matters/article/science-climate-change-combustion-fossil-fuels-13327165.php ("We're scientists. We know the climate's changing. And we know why.")
  1121. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/24/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-trump.html ("How Scientists cracked the climate change case")
  1122. "Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2"
  1123. "New generation of US satellite microwave sounder achieves high radiometric stability performance for reliable climate change detection"
  1124. "Radiosondes show that after decades of cooling the lower stratosphere is now warming"
  1125. "Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004"
  1126. "Junk science at the EPA"
  1127. "Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming"
  1128. "2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean"
  1129. "Response to Comment on "Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes""
  1130. "Variability and trends in the global tropopause estimated from radiosonde data"
  1131. "A global blended tropopause based on ERA data. Part II: Trends and tropical broadening"
  1132. "Trends in the global tropopause thickness revealed by radiosondes"
  1133. "Global tropopause height trends estimated from GPS radio occultation data"
  1134. "Distribution and trends of the cold-point tropopause over China from 1979 to 2014 based on radiosonde dataset"
  1135. "Tropopause trend across China from 1979 to 2016: A revisit with updated radiosonde measurements"
  1136. "Scaling behaviour of the global tropopause"
  1137. "Impact of changes in climate and halocarbons on recent lower stratosphere ozone and temperature trends"
  1138. "Long-term evolution of the cold point tropical tropopause: Simulation results and attribution analysis"
  1139. "Changes of the tropical tropopause layer under global warming"
  1140. "Tropical Tropopause Layer" [doi:10.1029/2008RG000267]
  1141. "Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends"
  1142. "Insights into Tropical Tropopause Layer processes using global models"
  1143. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=ERA-Interim&dataset2=MERRA-2&var=Geopotential+Height&level=150mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=150mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-30&xlat2=30&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=0&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1144. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JRA-55&dataset2=NCEP%2FNCAR+R1&var=Geopotential+Height&level=150mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=150mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1947&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-30&xlat2=30&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1145. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=MERRA&dataset2=NCEP%2FDOE+R2&var=Geopotential+Height&level=150mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=150mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-30&xlat2=30&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1146. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NCEP%2FCFSR&dataset2=20th+Century+Reanalysis+V2&var=Geopotential+Height&level=150mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=150mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-30&xlat2=30&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=0&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1147. "State of the climate in 2017"
  1148. "Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015"
  1149. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JRA-55&dataset2=NCEP%2FNCAR+R1&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1948&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=0&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1150. "Climate change 2013: Working Group I: The physical science basis; Chapter 8; Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing"
  1151. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1891&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=0&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1152. "Temperature trends observed in the middle atmosphere and future directions"
  1153. "Aerosol-driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century"
  1154. "The effects of changing the solar constant on the climate of a general circulation model"
  1155. "Accelerating extinction risk from climate change"
  1156. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2018/global-surface-temperatures-in-2017 (http://archive.is/hh1CP); https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2019/global-surface-temperature-in-2018 (http://archive.is/5nRiF)
  1157. "The Goldilocks problem: climatic evolution and long-term habitability of terrestrial planets"
  1158. "Altitude and solar activity dependence of 1967–2005 thermospheric density trends derived from orbital drag"
  1159. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html
  1160. "Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set"
  1161. "Big jump of record warm global mean surface temperature in 2014–2016 related to unusually large oceanic heat releases"
  1162. "Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations"
  1163. "Overview of global monthly surface temperature data in the past century and preliminary integration"
  1164. "Solar and thermal radiation profiles and radiative forcing measured through the atmosphere"
  1165. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/09/can-a-blanket-violate-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics/
  1166. http://rabett.blogspot.com/2017/10/an-evergreen-of-denial-is-that-colder.html
  1167. "Tobacco and health: a review of the history and suggestions for public health policy"
  1168. "Lung cancer from smoking: Delays and attitudes, 1912–1965"
  1169. "Uncovering the effects of smoking: historical perspective"
  1170. "The history of the discovery of the cigarette–lung cancer link: evidentiary traditions, corporate denial, global toll"
  1171. "Hydrogen storage technology: Materials and applications"
  1172. "Reconstructing paleoclimate fields using online data assimilation with a linear inverse model"
  1173. "The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results"
  1174. "How to respond to vocal vaccine deniers in public"
  1175. "Advocating for vaccination in a climate of science denial"
  1176. "MMR vaccine and autism: vaccine nihilism and postmodern science"
  1177. "Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly"
  1178. "The Holocene temperature conundrum" (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1407229111)
  1179. https://quantpalaeo.wordpress.com/2014/08/14/seasonally-biased-proxies-and-the-holocene-temperature-conundrum/
  1180. "Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013"
  1181. "Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011"
  1182. https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm ("The discovery of global warming" ; https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm {http://archive.is/dZcCg})
  1183. "Pollen weighs in on a climate conundrum"
  1184. "A possible role of dust in resolving the Holocene Temperature Conundrum"
  1185. "Testing for the possible influence of unknown climate forcings upon global temperature increases from 1950 to 2000"
  1186. "Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks"
  1187. "Time-varying climate sensitivity from regional feedbacks"
  1188. "Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget"
  1189. "The science of climate change: Questions and answers", from the Australian Academy of Science
  1190. "Understanding and countering climate science denial"
  1191. "Emerging pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere"
  1192. https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/11_consensus-on-co2-impacts-1982.pdf ("I would like to summarize the findings of our research in climate modeling and place our results in the existing body of knowledge of the CO2 greenhouse effect.")
  1193. "Harmonic analysis of worldwide temperature proxies for 2000 years" (discuss further at: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1069560229682184192 [archive: http://archive.is/W6rVt])
  1194. "Science in the public square: Global climate alarmism and historical precedents"
  1195. "Early downward trends in neurodevelopmental disorders following removal of thimerosal-containing vaccines"
  1196. "Thimerosal in childhood vaccines, neurodevelopment disorders, and heart disease in the United States"
  1197. "Does free iron in the brain interact with vaccines to trigger lipid peroxidation and hemorrhagic encephalopathy?"
  1198. "A critical reading of Dr. Rebecca Culshaw’s paper, Mathematical Modeling of AIDS Progression: Limitations, Expectations, and Future Directions, in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons (JPandS, Winter 2006)"
  1199. "Mathematical modeling of AIDS progression: limitations, expectations, and future directions"
  1200. "World Health Organization vaccine recommendations: Scientific flaws, or criminal misconduct?"
  1201. "Fallacies in modern medicine: the HIV/AIDS hypothesis"
  1202. Henry Bauer's "HIV tests are not HIV tests"
  1203. "Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years"
  1204. "Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the ‘‘ultimate’’ survival control factor?"
  1205. "Magnetic field and rotation in lower main-sequence stars: an empirical time-dependent magnetic bode's relation?"
  1206. "Are variations in the length of the activity cycle related to changes in brightness in solar-type stars?"
  1207. "Global diurnal temperature range (DTR) changes since 1901"
  1208. "Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models"
  1209. "The diurnal temperature range in the CMIP5 models"
  1210. "The long-term trend in the diurnal temperature range over Asia and its natural and anthropogenic causes"
  1211. "Impact of vegetation removal and soil aridation on diurnal temperature range in a semiarid region: Application to the Sahel"
  1212. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1055958353577426944
  1213. "Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo"
  1214. "On the present halting of global warming"
  1215. "On the recovery from the Little Ice Age"
  1216. "Comment on: Akasofu, S.-I. On the present halting of global warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4–11"
  1217. "Two natural components of the recent climate change"
  1218. https://skepticalscience.com/brierly-resignation-climate-akasofu.html ("Why I resigned from the editorial board of Climate over its Akasofu publication"; further note at: "Invitation for Discussion of a Paper Published in Climate: Akasofu, S.-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4–11")
  1219. "Aftermath of global warming hysteria"
  1220. "Long memory in temperature reconstructions"
  1221. "Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications"
  1222. "Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related?"
  1223. "Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs"
  1224. "Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)"
  1225. "On the alleged coherence between the global temperature and the Sun's movement"
  1226. "Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models"
  1227. "Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere"
  1228. "High-latitude climate change in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model with increased atmospheric CO2"
  1229. "Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis"
  1230. "The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss"
  1231. "A decomposition of feedback contributions to polar warming amplification"
  1232. "Climate change 2007: The physical science basis; Chapter 9: Understanding and attributing climate change"
  1233. "Polar amplification in CCSM4: Contributions from the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks"
  1234. "Arctic winter warming amplified by the thermal inversion and consequent low infrared cooling to space"
  1235. "Increased ocean heat convergence into the high latitudes with CO2 doubling enhances polar-amplified warming"
  1236. "Observational estimation of radiative feedback to surface air temperature over Northern High Latitudes"
  1237. "Comments on "Current GCMs' unrealistic negative feedback in the Arctic""
  1238. "What can we learn about climate feedbacks from short-term climate variations?"
  1239. "Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming"
  1240. "Amplified Arctic warming and mid-latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections"
  1241. "https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=ERA-Interim&dataset2=ERA-Interim&var=Air+Temperature&level=300mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=70&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1242. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JRA-55&dataset2=JRA-55&var=Air+Temperature&level=300mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=70&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1243. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=MERRA-2&dataset2=MERRA-2&var=Air+Temperature&level=300mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=70&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1244. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NCEP%2FDOE+R2&dataset2=NCEP%2FDOE+R2&var=Air+Temperature&level=300mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=70&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1245. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NCEP%2FCFSR&dataset2=NCEP%2FCFSR&var=Air+Temperature&level=300mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=70&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1246. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=20th+Century+Reanalysis+V2&dataset2=20th+Century+Reanalysis+V2&var=Air+Temperature&level=300mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=70&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1247. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=JMA+Temperature&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1248. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JRA-55&dataset2=JRA-55&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1249. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=ERA-Interim&dataset2=ERA-Interim&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=100mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1250. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=MERRA-2&dataset2=MERRA-2&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1251. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NCEP%2FDOE+R2&dataset2=NCEP%2FDOE+R2&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1252. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=20th+Century+Reanalysis+V2&dataset2=20th+Century+Reanalysis+V2&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1253. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NCEP%2FCFSR&dataset2=NCEP%2FCFSR&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2018&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=70&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-30&zlat2=30&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1254. "Arctic amplification metrics" (DOI: 10.1002/joc.5675)
  1255. "Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): A new data set of large-area anomaly time series"
  1256. "Revisiting radiosonde upper-air temperatures from 1958 to 2002"
  1257. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming"
  1258. "Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming"
  1259. "Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming"
  1260. "The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016 and the end of global warming hiatus"
  1261. "An observationally based constraint on the water-vapor feedback"
  1262. "What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?"
  1263. "Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions"
  1264. "Evolving understanding of Antarctic ice-sheet physics and ambiguity in probabilistic sea-level projections"
  1265. "Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions"
  1266. "Climate and environmental science denial: A review of the scientific literature published in 1990–2015"
  1267. "Centennial variations of the global monsoon precipitation in the last millennium: results from ECHO-G model"
  1268. "Convincing evidence supports reducing saturated fat to decrease cardiovascular disease risk"
  1269. "Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends"
  1270. Youtube, 1000frolly's video: "Climate Change "Problem" Solved - its Natural; Prof Weiss"
  1271. http://notrickszone.com/2015/02/02/german-analysis-current-warm-period-is-no-anthropogenic-product-major-natural-cycles-show-no-signs-of-warming/
  1272. "Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes"
  1273. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/03/laughable-new-paper-claims-99-999-certainty-global-warming-over-past-25-years-is-man-made/ [http://archive.is/ca8nS]
  1274. https://judithcurry.com/2014/08/24/the-50-50-argument/ [http://archive.is/Zx1j9]
  1275. "Predictions of global mean temperatures & IPCC projections"
  1276. http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm (http://archive.is/uNo6e; "Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide") 
  1277. "The physical flaws of the global warming theory and Deep Ocean circulation changes as the primary climate driver"
  1278. https://phys.org/news/2015-02-carbon-dioxide-greenhouse-effect.html (http://archive.is/MV4nR; comment from ruguyscrazy; "From 1910-1940 the earth warmed by .06 C [...] From 1980-2010 the earth warmed by .06 C [...] In the 1st period, almost no added C02 [...] In the 2nd period, massive amounts of added C02 [...] Yet the rate of change is the same. There is no unprecedented warming. I argue that if the earth warmed naturally, by .06 C, in the 1st period, then how can anyone assume that the 2nd period is not natural as well?  You can't.")
  1279. https://twitter.com/SimonMaxfield8/status/1074084099533357056 (http://archive.is/We081)
  1280. https://www.thegwpf.org/patrick-moore-should-we-celebrate-carbon-dioxide/
  1281. https://twitter.com/GillesnFio/status/1034765391338373120 (http://archive.is/NZ9jN)
  1282. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/22/picking-carbonated-cherries-in-1975/
  1283. https://gcaptain.com/what-is-the-role-of-the-oceans-in-global-warmingclimate-change/
  1284. https://co2coalition.org/2016/08/04/non-existent-relationship-co2-temperature-correlation-only-15-of-last-165-years/
  1285. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/07/07/climate-change-the-science-isnt-settled/62c458de-a6d4-4046-a873-43f070b7c6c9/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2e55ee94356a [http://archive.is/QIGWZ#selection-15.0-15.41]
  1286. https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/27/special-report-on-sea-level-rise/
  1287. https://judithcurry.com/2014/08/28/atlantic-vs-pacific-vs-agw/ [http://archive.is/DAi5b; see the cartoon at the end]
  1288. "Climate science and the uncertainty monster"
  1289. https://twitter.com/curryja/status/887061557594570752 (http://archive.is/FJFS6)
  1290. https://judithcurry.com/2010/11/03/reversing-the-direction-of-the-positive-feedback-loop/ (http://archive.is/vx2y3)
  1291. http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2014/8/19/what-exactly-is-going-on-in-their-heads-and-in-mine-explaini.html#comment21020927 [http://archive.is/iFY8f]
  1292. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/ipcc-attribution-statements-redux-a-response-to-judith-curry (http://archive.is/KAvAK)
  1293. https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/27/special-report-on-sea-level-rise/#comment-885389 (http://archive.is/ViVia)
  1294. "Climate change skepticism and denial: An introduction"
  1295. "Reexamining climate change debates: Scientific disagreement or scientific certainty argumentation methods (SCAMs)?"
  1296. "Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?"
  1297. "Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011"
  1298. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-ipcc-underestimated-climate-change/
  1299. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-ipcc-underestimate-assessing-climate-risks-15338
  1300. "The language of denial: Text analysis reveals differences in language use between climate change proponents and skeptics"
  1301. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/scientists-explain-what-new-york-magazine-article-on-the-uninhabitable-earth-gets-wrong-david-wallace-wells/
  1302. https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/earth-is-not-at-risk-of-becoming-a-hothouse-like-venus-as-stephen-hawking-claimed-bbc/
  1303. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/the-telegraph-dan-hyde-earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years/
  1304. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/2017-track-among-hottest-year-recorded-scientists-not-surprised-thinkprogress-article-suggests-joe-romm/
  1305. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/climate-change-emergency-jet-stream-shift-warning-global-warming-extreme-weather-gabriel-samuels-the-independent/
  1306. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/alaskas-vicious-cycle-warming-tundra-spews-co2-speeding-up-warming-joe-romm-think-progress/
  1307. https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/worlds-coral-reefs-severely-threatened-climate-change-human-impacts-abc-story-notes/
  1308. "Damping of glacial-interglacial cycles from anthropogenic forcing"
  1309. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=HadCRUT4&dataset2=Berkeley&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1917&fyear2=1944&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot (http://archive.is/zl8w4)
  1310. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=GISTEMP&dataset2=NOAA+Global+Temperature&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1917&fyear2=1944&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1311. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1917&fyear2=1944&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1312. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=HadCRUT4&dataset2=Berkeley&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1976&fyear2=2000&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot (http://archive.is/OZ3Ht)
  1313. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=GISTEMP&dataset2=NOAA+Global+Temperature&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1976&fyear2=2000&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1314. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1976&fyear2=2000&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1315. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=HadCRUT4&dataset2=Berkeley&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1976&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot (http://archive.is/lDh7k)
  1316. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=GISTEMP&dataset2=NOAA+Global+Temperature&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1976&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1317. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1976&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1318. https://climexp.knmi.nl/selectindex.cgi?id=someone@somewhere
  1319. http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/14/week-in-review-3/ (http://archive.is/uczqT; "Attention in the public debate seems to be moving away from the 15-17 yr ‘pause’ to the cooling since 2002 (note: I am receiving inquiries about this from journalists).  This period since 2002 is scientifically interesting, since it coincides with the ‘climate shift’ circa 2001/2002 posited  by Tsonis and others.  This shift and the subsequent slight cooling trend provides a rationale for inferring a slight cooling trend over the next decade or so, rather than a flat trend from the 15 yr ‘pause’.")
  1320. https://judithcurry.com/2013/07/27/the-97-consensus-part-ii/#comment-353668 (http://archive.is/9NdQN; "A year earlier, Jan 2011, I made it pretty clear that I supported Tsonis’ argument regarding climate shifts and a flat temperature trend for the next few decades")
  1321. https://judithcurry.com/2015/01/16/warmest-year-pause-and-all-that/ (http://archive.is/JKe8P;  "I've made my projection – global surface temperatures will remain mostly flat for at least another decade.")
  1322. https://judithcurry.com/2013/07/27/the-97-consensus-part-ii/#comment-353549 (http://archive.is/WFPzL; "I understand that 15 years is too short, but the climate model apostles told us not to expect a pause longer than 10 years, then 15 years, then 17 years. Looks like this one might go another two decades.")
  1323. https://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/07/currying-favour-with-deniers-judith.html
  1324. "Climate change 2013: The physical science basis; Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface"
  1325. "Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale"
  1326. http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/new-paper-claims-99999-certainty-global.html
  1327. "Global warming and climate change: science and politics"
  1328. https://canadafreepress.com/article/new-jason-satellite-indicates-23-year-global-cooling
  1329. "Climate change 2013: The physical science basis; Chapter 11: Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability"
  1330. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1066223748037128192
  1331. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=HadCRUT4&dataset2=Berkeley&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1332. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=GISTEMP&dataset2=NOAA+Global+Temperature&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1333. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=ERA-Interim&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1334. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JRA-55&dataset2=NCEP%2FDOE+R2&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1335. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=MERRA-2&dataset2=NCEP%2FCFSR&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1336. "Historical sulfur dioxide emissions 1850-2000: Methods and results"
  1337. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1074861836086992896
  1338. "Changes in Earth’s energy budget during and after the “Pause” in global warming: An observational perspective"
  1339. "Decadal ocean heat redistribution since the late 1990s and its association with key climate modes"
  1340. "Aliens cause global warming"
  1341. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/tobacco-and-oil-industries-used-same-researchers-to-sway-public1/
  1342. "Meta-analysis of the effect of comprehensive smoke-free legislation on acute coronary events"
  1343. "Cardiovascular effects of second-hand smoke help explain the benefits of smoke-free legislation on heart disease burden"
  1344. "Respiratory symptoms, pulmonary function, and markers of inflammation among bar workers before and after a legislative ban on smoking in public places"
  1345. "Association of anti-smoking legislation with rates of hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions"
  1346. "Lung function and exposure to workplace second-hand smoke during exemptions from smoking ban legislation: an exposure–response relationship based on indoor PM2.5 and urinary cotinine levels"
  1347. "The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations"
  1348. "Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures"
  1349. "Reconciling warming trends"
  1350. "Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’"
  1351. "Taking responsibility on publishing the controversial paper 'On the misdiagnosis of surface temperature feedbacks from variations in Earth’s radiant energy balance' by Spencer and Braswell, Remote Sens. 2011, 3(8), 1603–1613"
  1352. "A perspective on model-data surface temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum"
  1353. "A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum"
  1354. "Deficiencies in the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5 Degrees"
  1355. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/collideascape/2010/08/03/the-curry-agonistes/#comment-790767444 (cited in: https://skepticalscience.com/circular-argument-blaming-warming-on-amo.html#92411)
  1356. https://thebulletin.org/2018/12/christmas-advice-how-to-deal-with-climate-change-denying-uncle-pete/
  1357. "The life and death of the recent global surface warming hiatus parsimoniously explained"
  1358. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/ipcc-attribution-statements-redux-a-response-to-judith-curry/comment-page-2/#comment-589706 (http://archive.is/WYMr1#selection-1963.0-1963.8)
  1359. "Estimating the transient climate response from observed warming"
  1360. "The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences"
  1361. "Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing agents to the early 20th century warming"
  1362. "Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or natural global warming (NGM)"
  1363. "Analyzing hominin phylogeny: Cladistic approach"
  1364. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/greenhouse-gases
  1365. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/09/why-greenhouse-gases-heat-the-ocean/ (http://archive.vn/A4evB)
  1366. https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/144779/is-the-atmospheric-pressure-the-cause-of-a-planets-surface-temperature-or-is-it/144791 [http://archive.vn/ALDz3]
  1367. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1081266797901479939 [http://archive.vn/6LiQf]
  1368. "Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures"
  1369. "Testing hypotheses about sun-climate complexity linking"
  1370. http://kaltesonne.de/?p=551 [http://archive.ph/7RCOg]
  1371. https://judithcurry.com/2013/05/16/docmartyns-estimate-of-climate-sensitivity-and-forecast-of-future-global-temperatures/ [http://archive.ph/ecU1x#selection-399.0-399.112]
  1372. https://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2010/11/judith-curry-plants-her-flag [http://archive.is/w8IgU#selection-679.135-697.477]
  1373. "Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters"
  1374. https://retractionwatch.com/2018/04/23/flawed-climate-science-paper-exposed-potential-weaknesses-in-peer-review-process/ [http://archive.is/xWFop]
  1375. "How accurately do we know the temperature of the surface of the earth?"
  1376. https://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2018/02/06/ideal-gases/
  1377. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1070626227969503233 [http://archive.is/9dd7U; more detailed responses to Ned Nikolov: http://archive.is/3vA8f#selection-2305.0-2309.262 and http://archive.is/YsbNE#selection-2305.0-2309.357]
  1378. "How fast are the oceans warming?" [DOI: 10.1126/science.aav7619]
  1379. "Observations of local positive low cloud feedback patterns and their role in internal variability and climate sensitivity"
  1380. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23022015/guide-willie-soons-climate-research-funded-fossil-fuel-companies [http://archive.is/YOHqz]
  1381. https://skepticalscience.com/loehle-scafetta-60-year-cycle.htm [http://archive.is/r04i2]
  1382. "Climate change attribution using empirical decomposition of climatic data"
  1383. http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N50/C2.php [http://archive.is/kIggX]
  1384. "A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia"
  1385. "On the time evolution of climate sensitivity and future warming"
  1386. "Circumstances affecting the heat of the Sun’s rays"
  1387. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/lady-scientist-helped-revolutionize-climate-science-didnt-get-credit-180961291/
  1388. "Trend analysis of satellite global temperature data"
  1389. "Global temperature trends adjusted for unforced variability"
  1390. "A minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity"
  1391. "Simplified mathematical model for calculating global warming through anthropogenic CO2"
  1392. "On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead"
  1393. "The climate change commitment" (DOI: 10.1126/science.1103934)
  1394. "Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions"
  1395. "How much warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided?"
  1396. "Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions"
  1397. "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?"
  1398. "CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic's view of potential climate change"
  1399. "Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing"
  1400. "Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)"
  1401. "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming"
  1402. "The contribution from methane to the permafrost carbon feedback"
  1403. "Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback"
  1404. "Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback"
  1405. "Methane emissions proportional to permafrost carbon thawed in Arctic lakes since the 1950s"
  1406. "Global carbon budget 2017" [DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-405-2018]
  1407. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/
  1408. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts
  1409. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts
  1410. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/friends-of-science-video-promoted-by-youtube-presents-long-list-of-climate-myths-steve-goreham/ [http://archive.is/6pFzn]
  1411. "Estimating climate sensitivity using two‐zone energy balance models"
  1412. "The climate sensitivity and its components diagnosed from Earth radiation budget data"
  1413. "Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals"
  1414. https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/early-20th-century-global-warming/
  1415. "Detecting natural influence on surface air temperature change in the early twentieth century"
  1416. https://judithcurry.com/2014/01/27/early-20th-century-arctic-warming/
  1417. "Second hand smoke and risk assessment: what was in it for the tobacco industry?"
  1418. "Introduction to atmospheric chemistry" (by Daniel J. Jacob, Princeton University Press, 1999)
  1419. "Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences: Second edition" (by Gerald R. North, et al.; 2014)
  1420. "Earth's outgoing longwave radiation linear due to H2O greenhouse effect"
  1421. Thin Ice's 2014 video: "Thin Ice: The Greenhouse Effect - Ray Pierrehumbert: How carbon dioxide warms the climate"
  1422. Nuccitelli et al.: "Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"" (DOI: 10.1142/S0217979214820037)
  1423. Grooß and Müller: "Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"" (DOI: 10.1142/S021797921482001)
  1424. "A note on the 'Reply to 'Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change'' by Rolf Müller and Jens-Uwe Grooß' by Q.-B. Lu'"
  1425. "Do cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reactions impact stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate change?" ["Corrigendum to "Do cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reactions impact stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate change?" [Atmos. Environ. 45 (2011), 3408-3514]"]
  1426. "Comparison of spectrally resolved outgoing longwave radiation over the tropical Pacific between 1970 and 2003 using IRIS, IMG, and AIRS"
  1427. "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"
  1428. https://m.phys.org/news/2013-05-global-chlorofluorocarbons-carbon-dioxide.html (http://archive.vn/N32I3)
  1429. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1081935759207088128
  1430. "Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming"
  1431. "Feedbacks, timescales, and seeing red"
  1432. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html [http://archive.is/R1ykA]
  1433. "Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States"
  1434. "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years"
  1435. "Inventing conflicts of interest: A history of tobacco industry tactics"
  1436. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/13/a-matter-of-some-gravity/
  1437. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/29/unified-climate-theory-may-confuse-cause-and-effect/
  1438. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/23/the-mystery-of-equation-8/
  1439. http://www.climatefiles.com/exxonmobil/1982-memo-to-exxon-management-about-co2-greenhouse-effect/
  1440. Affidavit of Melissa A. Hoffer for Civil Action No.: 16-1888F, dated August 8, 2014: "APPENDIX IN OPPOSITION TO PETITION AND EMERGENCY MOTION OF EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION TO SET ASIDE OR MODIFY THE CIVIL INVESTIGATIVE DEMAND OR ISSUE A PROTECTIVE ORDER AND IN SUPPORT OF THE COMMONWEALTH'S CROSS-MOTION TO COMPEL EXXON TO COMPLY WITH CIVIL INVESTIGATIVE DEMAND NO. 2016-EPD-36"
  1441. For Civil Action No.: 16-1888F: "SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX IN SUPPORT OF PETITIONER'S CONSOLIDATED MEMORANDUM IN FURTHER SUPPORT OF ITS EMERGENCY MOTION AND IN OPPOSITION TO RESPONDENT'S MOTION TO COMPEL COMPLIANCE WITH THE CIVIL INVESTIGATIVE DEMAND"
  1442. "Economic and political implications of climate change"
  1443. https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/09/Tsonis-17.pdf ("The little boy: El Niño and natural climate change")
  1444. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.html [http://archive.is/9rtL3#selection-1395.1-1395.230]
  1445. http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2010/01/uw-milwaukee-professor-predicts-50-years-of-global-cooling/
  1446. https://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1807787/experts_divided_on_implications_of_brutal_cold_spell/ [http://archive.is/Rbhkp#selection-491.0-495.91]
  1447. "Has the climate recently shifted?" [DOI: 10.1029/2008GL037022]
  1448. http://www.wyattonearth.net/images/Summary_of_KWCT_2014.pdf ("Is the stadium-wave propagation an illusion?")
  1449. "Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century"
  1450. "Recently amplified Arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend"
  1451. "The Global Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature dataset, version 4"
  1452. "A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence"
  1453. "Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data"
  1454. "Regional trend changes in recent surface warming"
  1455. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ [https://web.archive.org/web/20191021085247/https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/]
  1456. "Global sea-level budget 1993–present" (DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018)
  1457. "New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach"
  1458. "Geographical distribution of thermometers gives the appearance of lower historical global warming"
  1459. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/sea-ice/G/0
  1460. https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html
  1461. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/29/don-easterbrooks-agu-paper-on-potential-global-cooling/ (http://archive.is/tQglB)
  1462. http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783 (http://archive.is/xALO1)
  1463. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/dec/19/checkmate-how-do-climate-science-deniers-predictions-stack-up
  1464. https://web.archive.org/web/20080920182733/http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~dbunny/research/global/glocool_summary.pdf ("Recent global cooling: Summary")
  1465. http://notrickszone.com/2014/06/29/german-geologist-ipcc-models-a-failure-have-no-chance-of-success-sees-possible-0-2c-of-cooling-by-2020/ 
  1466. "On the coherence between dynamics of the world fuel consumption and global temperature anomaly"
  1467. "Climate pattern recognition in the late-to-end Holocene (1600 AD to 2050 AD, part 8)"
  1468. https://principia-scientific.org/publications/PROM/PROM-PRISTASH_Alternative_Theory_to_CO2.pdf ("An alternative theory to anthropogenic carbon dioxide’s causing significant changes in the world’s climate")
  1469. http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=2295 [http://archive.is/sXJq2#selection-317.160-317.312]
  1470. "Multidecadal tendencies in ENSO and global temperatures related to multidecadal oscillations"
  1471. https://www.almanac.com/content/case-cool-climate
  1472. https://www.almanac.com/content/global-warming-wane
  1473. http://wermenh.com/climate/gccptf/Testimony_NHDES.html
  1474. https://judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/climate-hypochondria-and-tribalism-vs-winning/#comment-889431 [http://archive.is/Y24oc#selection-4681.0-4685.193]
  1475. https://judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/climate-hypochondria-and-tribalism-vs-winning/#comment-889266 [http://archive.is/Y24oc#selection-3521.0-3549.76]
  1476. https://judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/climate-hypochondria-and-tribalism-vs-winning/#comment-889431 [http://archive.is/Y24oc#selection-6159.0-6161.323]
  1477. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1097190697063596034
  1478. "Interpreting contemporary trends in atmospheric methane"
  1479. "Response to Comment on "Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures""
  1480. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/co2_flux/co2_flux_en.html ["Global ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake"; http://archive.is/2984Y]
  1481. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/06/ideal-gases/
  1482. "Association of animal and plant protein intake with all-cause and cause-specific mortality"
  1483. "Position of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics: Vegetarian diets" [DOI: 10.1016/j.jand.2016.09.025]
  1484. "The BROAD study: A randomised controlled trial using a whole food plant-based diet in the community for obesity, ischaemic heart disease or diabetes"
  1485. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf ("The physical flaws of the global warming theory and deep ocean circulation changes as the primary climate driver")
  1486. https://www.newsbusters.org/articles/famed-hurricane-forecaster-william-gray-predicts-global-cooling-10-years
  1487. https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases-all?ID=8a824f60-802a-23ad-441e-7a36e680683c&Issue_id= [http://archive.is/VOBj1#selection-2121.0-2121.69]
  1488. http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/AGT_NOAA2.htm [http://archive.is/7EEqZ]
  1489. http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/AGT_NOAA.htm [http://archive.is/inZCh]
  1490. http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/AGT_PDO.htm [http://archive.is/vcEOX]
  1491. "Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations"
  1492. "Global, regional, and megacity trends in the highest temperature of the year: Diagnostics and evidence for accelerating trends"
  1493. "No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes"
  1494. "Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures"
  1495. "Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes"
  1496. "Consistency of temperature and precipitation extremes across various global gridded in situ and reanalysis datasets"
  1497. "Global land-based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes"
  1498. "Luni‐solar tidal influences on climate variability"
  1499. "Deconstructing global temperature anomalies: An hypothesis"
  1500. "A proposed exogenous cause of the global temperature hiatus"
  1501. "Marine metazoan modern mass extinction: Improving predictions by integrating fossil, modern, and physiological data"
  1502. "On the radiative equilibrium and heat balance of the atmosphere"
  1503. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=ERA-20C&dataset2=20th+Century+Reanalysis+V2&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1890&fyear2=2015&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot [http://archive.is/pRFIJ]
  1504. "ERA-20C: An atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century"
  1505. https://judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea-level-rise-whiplash/#comment-889227 [http://archive.is/HFwd6#selection-2525.183-2525.253]
  1506. "Evaluating climate sensitivity to CO2 across Earth’s history"
  1507. "Measles, mumps, rubella vaccination and autism: A nationwide cohort study"
  1508. "Early exposure to the combined measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and thimerosal-containing vaccines and risk for autism spectrum disorder"
  1509. "Autism occurrence by MMR vaccine status among US children with older siblings with and without autism"
  1510. "Immunization uptake in younger siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder"
  1511. "Reconstruction of the sunspot group number: The backbone method"
  1512. "Contributions to molecular physics in the domain of radiant heat"
  1513. "Effects of elevated CO2 on the protein concentration of food crops: a meta‐analysis"
  1514. https://judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea-level-rise-whiplash/#comment-889954 [http://archive.is/zpTPw#selection-2683.0-2693.51 ; https://web.archive.org/web/20190303204418/https://judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea-level-rise-whiplash/#comment-889954]; https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1102310310675968000 [http://archive.is/Bhl8o]
  1515. "Potential links between continental rifting, CO2 degassing and climate change through time"
  1516. "Temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite"
  1517. Thin Ice 2014 video: "Thin Ice: The Greenhouse Effect - Ray Pierrehumbert: How carbon dioxide warms the climate"
  1518. "Temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term cloud feedback on global and local interannual climate fluctuations from A-Train observations"
  1519. "The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity"
  1520. "Investigating changes in cloud cover using the long-term record of precipitation extremes"
  1521. Youtube, potholer54's video: "26 -- Science vs. the Feelies"
  1522. "Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia"
  1523. "Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition"
  1524. "Glacier fluctuations during the past 2000 years"
  1525. "The GEWEX Water Vapor Assessment: Overview and introduction to results and recommendations"
  1526. "Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases"
  1527. "Two‐decadal aerosol trends as a likely explanation of the global dimming/brightening transition"
  1528. "From dimming to brightening: Decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth’s surface"
  1529. "Greenhouse effect and altitude gradients over the Alps – by surface longwave radiation measurements and model calculated LOR"
  1530. "Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land‐based hydrological cycle"
  1531. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity [http://archive.is/b0Azv]
  1532. "Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction"
  1533. "Flood basalts and mass extinctions" [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060136]
  1534. "Systemic swings in end-Permian climate from Siberian Traps carbon and sulfur outgassing"
  1535. "Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians"
  1536. "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate"
  1537. "Cosmic rays and climate change over the past 1000 million years"
  1538. "Solar total and spectral irradiance: modelling and a possible impact on climate"
  1539. "A review of the relevance of the ‘CLOUD’ results and other recent observations to the possible effect of cosmic rays on the terrestrial climate"
  1540. "Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia"
  1541. "The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)" [DOI: 10.1002/swe.20064]
  1542. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=Pre-generated+Time+Series&dataset2=none&var=Geopotential+Height&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=16&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2019&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=0&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=0&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1543. "Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport"
  1544. "Constraining the global ocean heat content through assimilation of CERES‐derived TOA energy imbalance estimates"
  1545. "An apparent hiatus in global warming?"
  1546. "Climate updates: What have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report?"
  1547. "Historical tropospheric and stratospheric ozone radiative forcing using the CMIP6 database"
  1548. "Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)" [DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017]
  1549. "The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6"
  1550. "The relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global temperature for the last 425 million years"
  1551. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1078704433150771200
  1552. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/04/judy-currys-attribution-non-argument/
  1553. "Robust regional warming amplifications directly following the anthropogenic emission"
  1554. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/22/virtually-indistinguishable-comparing-early-20th-century-warming-to-late-20th-century-warming/
  1555. http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/27/unprecedented-central-england-warming-of-1692-1737-twice-as-fast-as-late-20th-century-warming/#sthash.NLjq3oOt.tUR8Sfa2.dpbs
  1556. dessler2's (Andrew Dessler's) 2015 video: "The physics of climate change"
  1557. "The Mainau Declaration 2015 on Climate Change"
  1558. "Bridging the political divide: Highlighting explanatory power mitigates biased evaluation of climate arguments"
  1559. "Reflecting on explanatory ability: A mechanism for detecting gaps in causal knowledge"
  1560. "Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades"
  1561. "Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean"
  1562. "Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world"
  1563. "Global Ocean Oxygen Network 2018. The ocean is losing its breath: Declining oxygen in the world's ocean and coastal waters"
  1564. "Anthropogenic ocean change: The consummate threat to marine mammal welfare"
  1565. "The golden section: A cosmic principle" [also see Landscheidt's books: "Cosmic cybernetics: The foundations of a modern astrology" , "Sun, Earth, man: A mesh of cosmic oscillations - How planets regulate solar eruptions, geomagnetic storms, conditions of life and economic cycles]
  1566. "New Little Ice Age instead of global warming?" [http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.601.8720&rep=rep1&type=pdf]
  1567. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/09/commentary-on-the-article-about-the-interplanetary-magnetic-field-influences/
  1568. http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/28/global-cooling-consensus-is-heating-up-cooling-over-the-next-1-to-3-decades/
  1569. http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-skeptics-were-right-climate-changes.html
  1570. http://www.john-daly.com/ [http://archive.is/Zc0BE#selection-1457.0-1505.1]
  1571. https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/04/08/theodor-landscheidt-sun-earth-man-and-the-kepler-ratios/
  1572. https://www.iceagenow.com/New_Little_Ice_Age.htm
  1573. https://johnosullivan.livejournal.com/49089.html
  1574. "The imperative for climate action to protect health"
  1575. "2018 continues record global ocean warming"
  1576. https://chriscolose.wordpress.com/2010/05/12/goddards-world/
  1577. "Role of clouds in accelerating cold‐season warming during 2000–2015 over the Tibetan Plateau"
  1578. dessler2's (Andrew Dessler's) 2019 video: "climate sensitivity at Univ. of Utah"
  1579. "An estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity from interannual variability"
  1580. "Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context"
  1581. "On the interpretation of upper-tropospheric humidity based on a second-order retrieval from infrared radiances"
  1582. https://opentextbc.ca/anatomyandphysiology/chapter/1-5-homeostasis/
  1583. "1.1 - The core principles of physiology" in "Quantitative human physiology (second edition)"
  1584. "Reconstruction of the action potential" in "Neuroscience, 2nd edition"
  1585. "Trafficking and cellular distribution of voltage-gated sodium channels"
  1586. "Sodium-activated potassium channels are functionally coupled to persistent sodium currents"
  1587. "New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases"
  1588. "Volcanic radiative forcing from 1979 to 2015"
  1589. "Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal"
  1590. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/04/first-successful-model-simulation-of-the-past-3-million-years-of-climate-change/#more-22376
  1591. "Infrared absorption spectra, radiative efficiencies, and global warming potentials of perfluorocarbons: Comparison between experiment and theory"
  1592. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/01/23/hot-and-cold-curry/ [http://archive.is/XtE0b#selection-291.1-295.252]
  1593. Youtube, Philosophical Investigations video: "Carbon Dioxide - Does it Really Cause Global Warming?"
  1594. "Influence of oceanic heat transport upon the sensitivity of a model climate"
  1595. "The effect of ocean heat capacity upon global warming due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide"
  1596. "Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three‐dimensional model"
  1597. "Causes of East Asian temperature multidecadal variability since 850 CE"
  1598. "European summer temperatures since Roman times"
  1599. "Long-range persistence in global surface temperatures explained by linear multibox energy balance models"
  1600. "Long-memory effects in linear response models of Earth's temperature and implications for future global warming"
  1601. "Global warming projections derived from an observation-based minimal model"
  1602. "On long range dependence in global surface temperature series: An editorial comment"
  1603. "Reproducing long range correlations in global mean temperatures in simple energy balance models"
  1604. "The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change"
  1605. "The Silurian hypothesis: would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record?"
  1606. "Motivated numeracy and enlightened self-government"
  1607. "Popular consensus: Climate change is set to continue"
  1608. "Overcoming endpoint bias in climate change communication: The case of Arctic sea ice trends"
  1609. "Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment"
  1610. "Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate"
  1611. http://www.geography.unibe.ch/research/climatology_group/research_projects/fupsol_ii/index_eng.html [http://archive.is/6n9Ue]
  1612. "A global analysis of land surface temperature diurnal cycle using MODIS observations" (earlier version: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hamidreza_Norouzi3/publication/327335652_A_Global_Analysis_Of_Land_Surface_Temperature_Diurnal_Cycle_IGARSS/links/5c8fb48945851564fae647e7/A-Global-Analysis-Of-Land-Surface-Temperature-Diurnal-Cycle-IGARSS)
  1613. "Change point analysis of global temperature records"
  1614. "Climate change 2013: Working Group I: The physical science basis; Chapter 12; Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility"
  1615. Youtube, Philosophical Investigations video: "GMU CLIM102's video: "Climate Sensitivity Part 2 - How Band Saturation Works""
  1616. "Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries"
  1617. https://web.archive.org/web/20180104193244/https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/02/earth-itself-is-telling-us-there%E2%80%99s-nothing-to-worry-about-in-doubled-or-even-quadrupled-atmospheric-co2/
  1618. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/06/02/frankly-not/ [http://archive.is/SnSpY]
  1619. http://web.archive.org/web/20100104072004/https://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/12/22/cyclical-not/
  1620. http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/graphics_gallery/other_stations/global_stations_co2_concentration_trends [http://archive.is/9fmVy]
  1621. "The potency of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a greenhouse gas"
  1622. "Climate sensitivity parameter in the test of the Mount Pinatubo eruption"
  1623. http://mjl.clarivate.com/
  1624. https://web.archive.org/web/20190429162801/http://www.sdiarticle2.org/prh/PSIJ_33/2016/Rev_PSIJ_23242_Mah.pdf
  1625. https://web.archive.org/web/20190429162812/http://www.sdiarticle2.org/prh/PSIJ_33/2016/Rev_PSIJ_23242_Sbo.pdf
  1626. https://web.archive.org/web/20190429162820/http://www.sdiarticle2.org/prh/PSIJ_33/2016/Rev_PSIJ_23242_Bha.pdf
  1627. https://web.archive.org/web/20190429163719/http://www.sdiarticle2.org/prh/PSIJ_33/2016/Rev_PSIJ_23242_Joh_ANON.pdf
  1628. https://web.archive.org/web/20190429163738/http://www.sdiarticle2.org/prh/PSIJ_33/2016/Rev_PSIJ_23242_Joh_ANON_v1.pdf
  1629. https://quantpalaeo.wordpress.com/2016/03/08/the-peer-review-of-ollila-2016/ [http://archive.is/acyp2]
  1630. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1098265734290071552 [http://archive.is/hQ5XA]
  1631. "Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates"
  1632. "Effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing"
  1633. "Climate response to volcanic forcing: Validation of climate sensitivity of a coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model"
  1634. Wigley et al.: "Comment on ‘‘Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo’’ by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox" [DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023312]
  1635. Robock: "Comment on ‘‘Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo’’ by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox" [DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023287]
  1636. "Response to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in relation to climate sensitivity in the CMIP3 models"
  1637. "Global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo: A test of climate feedback by water vapor"
  1638. Youtube, drkstrong's video: "TONY HELLER UNDER PRESSURE"
  1639. "Coupling of CO2 and ice sheet stability over major climate transitions of the last 20 million years"
  1640. "Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability"
  1641. "Estimating transient climate response in a large-ensemble global climate model simulation"
  1642. "Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios"
  1643. "Radiation transfer calculations and assessment of global warming by CO2"
  1644. "Diurnal cycle variability of surface temperature inferred from AIRS data"
  1645. 1997: "Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe"
  1646. "Declining diurnal temperature range in the North China Plain related to environmental changes"
  1647. "Global tropopause altitudes in radiosondes and reanalyses"
  1648. https://judithcurry.com/2014/03/04/causes-and-implications-of-the-pause/ [http://archive.is/hvQNK#selection-345.0-395.53; "The stadium wave hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for the hiatus in warming and helps explain why climate models did not predict this hiatus. Further, the new hypothesis suggests how long the hiatus might last. [...] Implications for the future: I. IPCC AR5 view. The hiatus will end soon, with the next El Nino. [...] Implications for the future: II.  View emphasizing natural internal variability. The ‘hiatus’ will continue at least another decade"]
  1649. https://judithcurry.com/2012/02/07/trends-change-points-hypotheses/ [http://archive.is/3GNNa#selection-409.0-409.169]
  1650. "No evidence for planetary influence on solar activity"
  1651. "Prudence in estimating coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations"
  1652. "Critical analysis of a hypothesis of the planetary tidal influence on solar activity"
  1653. "Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate"
  1654. "Long-term trends of atmospheric CH4 concentration across China from 2002 to 2016"
  1655. "Overestimate of committed warming" [DOI: 10.1038/nature22803]
  1656. "Snyder replies" [reply to "Overestimate of committed warming"; Nature volume 547, pages E17–E18 (13 July 2017)]
  1657. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/09/the-snyder-sensitivity-situation/ [http://archive.is/APEN2]
  1658. "Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction"
  1659. "A limited role for unforced internal variability in twentieth-century warming"
  1660. "A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance"
  1661. "Variability of temperature and ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from multi-satellite observations and reanalysis data"
  1662. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/ghg-bulletin13.html [http://archive.is/D1onR]
  1663. "A tight coupling between atmospheric pCO2 and sea-surface temperature in the Late Triassic"
  1664. "Committed warming inferred from observations"
  1665. "Drivers and mechanisms of ocean deoxygenation"
  1666. "Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958–2015"
  1667. "The role of forcings in the twentieth-century North Atlantic multidecadal variability: The 1940–75 North Atlantic cooling case study"
  1668. "The role of historical forcings in simulating the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation"
  1669. "External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability"
  1670. "Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Age"
  1671. "Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes"
  1672. "Historical forcings as main drivers of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in the CESM large ensemble"
  1673. "Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth­-century North Atlantic climate variability"
  1674. "Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)"
  1675. "Vaccine hesitancy, vaccine refusal and the anti-vaccine movement: influence, impact and implications"
  1676. "Observation and attribution of temperature trends near the stratopause from HALOE"
  1677. "Estimating biases in sea surface temperature records using coastal weather stations"
  1678. "Modeling CO2 in the Ocean: A review"
  1679. "The long‐term trends of nocturnal mesopause temperature and altitude revealed by Na lidar observations between 1990 and 2018 at mid‐latitude"
  1680. "The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions"
  1681. "The transient response to cumulative CO2 emissions: A review"
  1682. "Reconciling roles of sulphate aerosol forcing and internal variability in Atlantic multidecadal climate changes"
  1683. "Climate sensitivity estimates–sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data"
  1684. "Motivated rejection of science" [DOI: 10.1177/0963721416654436]
  1685. "Why people “don't trust the evidence” motivated reasoning and scientific beliefs"
  1686. "Science denial across the political divide: Liberals and conservatives are similarly motivated to deny attitude-inconsistent science"
  1687. Youtube, greenman3610's video: "Richard Muller: I Was Wrong on Climate Change"
  1688. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-natural-cycles-only-play-small-role-in-rate-of-global-warming [http://archive.is/SaRPi]
  1689. "Recent global warming as confirmed by AIRS"
  1690. "Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. UPDATE COBE-SST2 based land-ocean dataset"
  1691. "Arctic warming in ERA‐Interim and other analyses"
  1692. "An investigation into the impact of using various techniques to estimate arctic surface air temperature anomalies"
  1693. "Statistical analysis of coverage error in simple global temperature estimators"
  1694. "Contributions of atmospheric circulation variability and data coverage bias to the warming hiatus"
  1695. "Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus"
  1696. "Response to Gleisner et al (2015): Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data" [A comment on: "Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low‐latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data"]
  1697. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=ERA-5&dataset2=none&var=Geopotential+Height&level=150mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1979&fyear2=2017&season=1&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-30&xlat2=30&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=0&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1698. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=ERA-5&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=925mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=0&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1699. http://euanmearns.com/the-end-of-the-little-ice-age/
  1700. "Melting of floating ice and sea level rise"
  1701. "Recent loss of floating ice and the consequent sea level contribution"
  1702. "Ice core records of West Greenland melt and climate forcing"
  1703. "Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing"
  1704. "Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming"
  1705. "The pattern of anthropogenic signal emergence in Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance"
  1706. "Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise"
  1707. "Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807"
  1708. "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?"
  1709. "An anomalous recent acceleration of global sea level rise"
  1710. "A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise"
  1711. "Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century"
  1712. "A consistent sea-level reconstruction and its budget on basin and global scales over 1958–2014"
  1713. "Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?"
  1714. "Considerations for estimating the 20th century trend in global mean sea level"
  1715. "The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014"
  1716. "Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise"
  1717. "Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era"
  1718. "Evaluation of the global mean sea level budget between 1993 and 2014"
  1719. "Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005–2015"
  1720. "An increase in the rate of global mean sea level rise since 2010"
  1721. "A data set of worldwide glacier length fluctuations"
  1722. "Attribution of arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse gas, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing"
  1723. "Aerosol‐driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century"
  1724. "Human influence on Arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards"
  1725. "Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM"
  1726. "Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat"
  1727. "Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons"
  1728. "The trajectory towards a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean"
  1729. "Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission"
  1730. "Decreasing Arctic sea ice mirrors increasing CO2 on decadal time scale"
  1731. "The importance of unresolved biases in 20th century sea-surface temperature observations"
  1732. "A Bayesian approach to detecting change points in climatic records"
  1733. "Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks"
  1734. "Impact of volcanic eruptions on decadal to centennial fluctuations of Arctic sea ice extent during the last millennium and on initiation of the Little Ice Age"
  1735. "Low atmospheric CO2 levels during the Little Ice Age due to cooling-induced terrestrial uptake"
  1736. "Decline in Antarctic ozone depletion and lower stratospheric chlorine determined from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations"
  1737. https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/primer/climate-forcing [http://archive.is/sYPSi]
  1738. "Isotopic constraint on the twentieth-century increase in tropospheric ozone"
  1739. "Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model" [DOI: 10.1029/2018JD029522]
  1740. "Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates"
  1741. "A real-time Global Warming Index" [DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5]
  1742. "Recent summer warming in northwestern Canada exceeds the Holocene thermal maximum"
  1743. "Central Europe temperature constrained by speleothem fluid inclusion water isotopes over the past 14,000 years"
  1744. "Long-term summer warming trend during the Holocene in central Asia indicated by alpine peat α-cellulose δ13C record"
  1745. "Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing"
  1746. "Mid Holocene, coral-based sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic"
  1747. "The onset and rate of Holocene Neoglacial cooling in the Arctic"
  1748. "No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era"
  1749. "Last phase of the Little Ice Age forced by volcanic eruptions"
  1750. "Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era" [figure 1a: http://archive.is/QPvzO ; figure 4a: http://archive.is/GrGsP]
  1751. "Temporal scaling of carbon emission and accumulation rates: Modern anthropogenic emissions compared to estimates of PETM onset accumulation"
  1752. "Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context"
  1753. "Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions"
  1754. "New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution"
  1755. "Effective strategies for rebutting science denialism in public discussions"
  1756. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/06/a-simple-no-greenhouse-effect-model-of-day-night-temperatures-at-different-latitudes/
  1757. "Climate change 2001: The scientific basis; Chapter 12: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes"
  1758. "A reevaluation of the solar constant based on a 42-year total solar irradiance time series and a reconciliation of spaceborne observations"
  1759. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming [http://archive.is/cvzpT]
  1760. https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1010240650967580672
  1761. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/30-years-after-hansens-testimony/
  1762. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/12/updates-to-model-data-comparisons/
  1763. https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2018/06/hansens-1988-predictions-30-year.html
  1764. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/06/judgment-on-hansens-88-climate-testimony-he-was-right/
  1765. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jun/25/30-years-later-deniers-are-still-lying-about-hansens-amazing-global-warming-prediction
  1766. https://climategraphs.wordpress.com/2017/11/06/evaluating-the-prediction-of-manabe-and-wetherald-1967/
  1767. "Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections" (Supplemental figures: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1029%2F2019GL085378&file=grl59922-sup-0001-2019GL085378-SI.docx ; American Geophysical Union, December 2018 conference abstract: "Assessing the performance of historical climate model forecasts")
  1768. Youtube, StichtingDeGroeneRekenkamer's video: "Nic Lewis disputes necessity for zero emissions in 2050" (keynote lecture entitled: "How sensitive is the climate to greenhouse gases?"; at the "Ontgroeningsdag" event on 7 March 2019 in Amsterdam)
  1769. "Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change"
  1770. "Global temperature change" [DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0606291103]
  1771. "Skill and uncertainty in climate models" [DOI: 10.1002/wcc.58] 
  1772. "Test of a decadal climate forecast"
  1773. "Assessing temperature pattern projections made in 1989"
  1774. "'Natural experiments' and CO2-induced Climate Change: The controversy drags on — An editorial"
  1775. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1158127702400000000
  1776. http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
  1777. "Comparison of decadal trends among total solar irradiance composites of satellite observations"
  1778. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=GISTEMP&dataset2=Berkeley&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1970&fyear2=2000&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1970&climo1yr2=2000&climo2yr1=1970&climo2yr2=2000&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1779. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NOAA+Global+Temperature&dataset2=HadCRUT4&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1970&fyear2=2000&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1970&climo1yr2=2000&climo2yr1=1970&climo2yr2=2000&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1780. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=JRA-55&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1970&fyear2=2000&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1970&climo1yr2=2000&climo2yr1=1970&climo2yr2=2000&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1781. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NCEP%2FNCAR+R1&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1970&fyear2=2000&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=1970&climo1yr2=2000&climo2yr1=1970&climo2yr2=2000&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1782. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=GISTEMP&dataset2=Berkeley&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=2000&climo1yr2=2018&climo2yr1=2000&climo2yr2=2018&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1783. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NOAA+Global+Temperature&dataset2=HadCRUT4&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=2000&climo1yr2=2018&climo2yr1=2000&climo2yr2=2018&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1784. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=JMA+Temperature&dataset2=JRA-55&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=2000&climo1yr2=2018&climo2yr1=2000&climo2yr2=2018&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1785. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=NCEP%2FNCAR+R1&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=2m+Air+Temperature&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=2000&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=1&climo1yr1=2000&climo1yr2=2018&climo2yr1=2000&climo2yr2=2018&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=-90&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=on&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&ywave1=&ywave2=&cwavelow=&cwavehigh=&cwaveint=&coi=0&Submit=Create+Plot
  1786. Unpublished manuscript: "Assessing climate model projections of anthropogenic warming patterns" [https://eartharxiv.org/ahq4p/download?format=pdf ; https://twitter.com/henrifdrake/status/1151226869720555522 (http://archive.is/Xb1Vq)]
  1787. "Process-based decomposition of the decadal climate difference between 2002–13 and 1984–95"
  1788. "State of the climate in 2018"
  1789. "A positive iris feedback: Insights from climate simulations with temperature-sensitive cloud–rain conversion"
  1790. "Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity"
  1791. "Glyphosate, neurological diseases – and the scientific method"
  1792. "The deluge of spurious correlations in big data"
  1793. "Chocolate consumption, cognitive function, and Nobel laureates"
  1794. "Milk, chocolate and Nobel prizes" [DOI: 10.1136/practneurol-2012-000471]
  1795. "Does chocolate consumption really boost Nobel award chances? The peril of over-interpreting correlations in health studies"
  1796. https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
  1797. https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/atmosphericwarming.html
  1798. "Sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks"
  1799. "On the vertical extent of atmospheric feedbacks"
  1800. "Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms"
  1801. "Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal, vertical and geographical structure"
  1802. https://www.pattern-recognition-in-physics.net/ [http://archive.is/IPeeL]
  1803. https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_xYy1Z4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra
  1804. https://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/pressrelease/faculty_most_influential_in_their_fields [http://archive.is/6JRaf]
  1805. "Storks deliver babies (p = 0.008)"
  1806. "New evidence for the Theory of the Stork"
  1807. "Last Millennium Reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling" [data addition: "Additions to the Last Millennium Reanalysis Multi-Proxy Database"]
  1808. https://judithcurry.com/2015/03/05/2-new-papers-on-the-pause/ (http://archive.is/VnjbA#selection-387.138-391.157; "My take on how the pause will play out is summarized in the stadium wave post: I expect that the natural variability will contribute to a continuation of the hiatus into the 2030’s, with solar and volcanoes being a wild card.")
  1809. http://judithcurry.com/2015/01/16/warmest-year-pause-and-all-that/ (http://archive.is/JKe8P#selection-291.136-291.477; "I’ve made my projection – global surface temperatures will remain mostly flat for at least another decade.  However, I’m not willing to place much $$ on that bet, since I suspect that Mother Nature will manage to surprise us. (I will be particularly surprised if the rate of warming in the next decade is at the levels expected by the IPCC.)")
  1810. https://judithcurry.com/2013/06/14/week-in-review-3/ (http://archive.is/uczqT#selection-247.0-247.501; "Attention in the public debate seems to be moving away from the 15-17 yr ‘pause’ to the cooling since 2002 (note: I am receiving inquiries about this from journalists).  This period since 2002 is scientifically interesting, since it coincides with the ‘climate shift’ circa 2001/2002 posited  by Tsonis and others.  This shift and the subsequent slight cooling trend provides a rationale for inferring a slight cooling trend over the next decade or so, rather than a flat trend from the 15 yr ‘pause’.")
  1811. "Influence and seepage: An evidence-resistant minority can affect public opinion and scientific belief formation"
  1812. "Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880"
  1813. "A high-resolution 1983–2016 Tmax climate data record based on infrared temperatures and stations by the Climate Hazard Center"
  1814. https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/08/08/no-pressure-alone-does-not-define-surface-temperatures/
  1815. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/23/quantifying-the-greenhouse-effect/
  1816. https://www.unibe.ch/news/media_news/media_relations_e/media_releases/2019/medienmitteilungen_2019/the_climate_is_warming_faster_than_it_has_in_the_last_2000_years/index_eng.html [http://archive.is/qQmsC#selection-831.0-879.99 ; image: https://www.unibe.ch/e796/e803/e59463/e805/e751801/e753172/e847220/media_service847225/e847266/20190719_MediaReleaseUniBE_Global_Warming_Graphic1_EN_eng.jpg [http://archive.is/w5dPj])
  1817. "Eunice Foote, John Tyndall and a question of priority"
  1818. "Analysis of global and hemispheric temperature records and prognosis"
  1819. https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
  1820. "What caused Earth's largest mass extinction event? New evidence from the Permian-Triassic boundary in northeastern Utah"
  1821. https://www.epa.gov/ocean-acidification/understanding-science-ocean-and-coastal-acidification [http://archive.is/dLRMT#selection-609.0-651.81]
  1822. "Scientists’ warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change"
  1823. "Middle atmosphere temperature trends in the 20th and 21st centuries simulated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)"
  1824. "Cosmic rays, aerosols, clouds, and climate: Recent findings from the CLOUD experiment"
  1825. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-carbon-dioxide-makes-u/
  1826. https://skepticalscience.com/CO2-trace-gas.htm [http://archive.is/vmLgN]
  1827. "Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver"
  1828. https://www.theepochtimes.com/swedish-researcher-pushes-human-flesh-eating-as-answer-to-future-climate-change-food-shortages_3068833.html [http://archive.is/yCyLJ]
  1829. "The amplitude and origin of sea-level variability during the Pliocene epoch"
  1830. http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/icecore_merged_products.html [http://archive.is/nBYYO]
  1831. "Causes of climate change over the historical record"
  1832. "On the detection of robust multidecadal changes in Earth's outgoing longwave radiation spectrum"
  1833. "Observation-based decomposition of radiative perturbations and radiative kernels"
  1834. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052015/willie-soon-out-headlines-still-crosshairs [http://archive.is/7mSnW; image: https://insideclimatenews.org/content/graphic-11-times-willie-soon-failed-disclose-fossil-fuel-fundinghttp://archive.is/AJDX5]
  1835. https://skepticalscience.com/ipcc-overestimate-global-warming.htm [http://archive.is/50gAg]
  1836. "Climate change impacts in the United States: The third national climate assessment"
  1837. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html [http://archive.is/DKLix ;  ; update to: "The role of carbon dioxide in climate forcing from 1979 to 2004: introduction of the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index"]
  1838. "Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty" [https://web.archive.org/web/20191015031452/https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf]
  1839. "CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models"
  1840. "Cosmic rays and climate" [DOI: 0.1016/j.asr.2017.07.028]
  1841. Youtube, potholer54's video: "Response to Tony Heller"
  1842. "The impact of elite frames and motivated reasoning on beliefs in a global warming conspiracy: The promise and limits of trust"
  1843. "Interglacials of the last 800,000 years"
  1844. "Global warming has increased global economic inequality"
  1845. "Reply to Rosen: Temperature–growth relationship is robust"
  1846. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production"
  1847. "Measuring global ocean heat content to estimate the earth energy imbalance"
  1848. "Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices"
  1849. "Attribution of the influence of human-induced climate change on an extreme fire season"
  1850. "A thousand-year record of temperature variations for Germany and Central Europe based on documentary data"
  1851. Youtube, potholer54's video: "How to Argue with Assholes"
  1852. Youtube, potholer54's video: "6 dumbest ideas politicians have about science"
  1853. "Role of greenhouse gas in climate change" [Manabe's video on this: Youtube, Vetenskapsakademien's video: "Role of greenhouse gas in climate change"]
  1854. "Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide"
  1855. "Consilience: the unity of knowledge" [https://web.archive.org/web/20191108212605/http://wtf.tw/ref/wilson.pdf]
  1856. Youtube, potholer54's video: "Conspiracy theories conspiracy"
  1857. "Econometric estimates of Earth’s transient climate sensitivity"
  1858. "Emergent constraints on Earth's transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming"
  1859. "Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming"
  1860. "Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change"
  1861. "Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years"
  1862. "The effect of obliquity‐driven changes on paleoclimate sensitivity during the Late Pleistocene"
  1863. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1197700895884136450 [http://archive.is/Tx8DP]
  1864. https://denierlist.wordpress.com/2013/10/04/anastasios-tsonis/ [http://archive.is/FdP5n#selection-69.0-149.12]
  1865. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/06/unforced-variations-vs-forced-responses [http://archive.is/NGGih]
  1866. "Objectively combining AR5 instrumental period and paleoclimate climate sensitivity evidence"
  1867. "Reconciling climate model/data discrepancies: The case of the 'trees that didn't bark'"
  1868. "Emergent scale invariance and climate sensitivity"
  1869. "Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata"
  1870. "Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models"
  1871. "Net cloud thinning, low-level cloud diminishment, and Hadley circulation weakening of precipitating clouds with tropical west Pacific SST using MISR and other satellite and reanalysis data"
  1872. "Ocean warming: From the surface to the deep in observations and models"
  1873. "A multicointegration model of global climate change"
  1874. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_05/ [http://archive.is/Dyksq]
  1875. "Modeling quiet solar luminosity variability from TSI satellite measurements and proxy models during 1980–2018"
  1876. "An early prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25"
  1877. "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992"
  1878. "Group sunspot numbers: A new solar activity reconstruction"
  1879. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/the-soon-fallacy/ [http://archive.is/wQO7Q#selection-261.46-359.118]
  1880. "Estimating mortality due to cigarette smoking: Two methods, same result"
  1881. "Smoking and all-cause mortality in older people: Systematic review and meta-analysis"
  1882. "Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000"
  1883. "Systematic review of cigar smoking and all cause and smoking related mortality"
  1884. "Tobacco smoking and all-cause mortality in a large Australian cohort study: findings from a mature"
  1885. "Health consequences of smoking 1–4 cigarettes per day"
  1886. "Health effects of light and intermittent smoking: A review"
  1887. "Association of long-term, low-intensity smoking with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the National Institutes of Health–AARP Diet and Health Study"
  1888. "Non-daily cigarette smokers: mortality risks in the US"
  1889. https://climateconference.heartland.org/speakers/ [http://archive.is/5bQgJ]
  1890. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/11/does-nasas-latest-study-confirm-global-warming/ [http://archive.is/ch7HZ#selection-813.0-813.88]
  1891. https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/Books/Why%20Scientists%20Disagree%20Second%20Edition%20with%20covers.pdf
  1892. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/patrick-moore--iccc9-july-8-2014
  1893. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/william-happer-iccc-12-keynote-independence-now [http://archive.is/GOgDm]
  1894. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos-climate-change/fred-singer-iccc3
  1895. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos-climate-change/robert-carter-iccc6
  1896. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/willie-soon-iccc-12-panel-1b-climate-science
  1897. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/don-j-easterbrook-iccc-12-panel-1b-climate-science
  1898. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/ross-mckitrick-iccc4
  1899. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos-environment/stephen-mcintyre-iccc4
  1900. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos-environment/nils-axel-mrner-iccc4
  1901. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/tony-heller---iccc9-july-8-2014
  1902. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos-environment/garth-paltridge-iccc4 [http://archive.is/MsMyO]
  1903. "Merchants of doubt: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming"
  1904. "The Atlas Network: a “strategic ally” of the tobacco industry"
  1905. https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0215/Documents-reveal-Koch-funded-group-s-plot-to-undermine-climate-science [http://archive.is/7uw1J]
  1906. https://thinkprogress.org/exposed-the-19-public-corporations-funding-the-climate-denier-think-tank-heartland-institute-2b4a345ab636/
  1907. https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/exxon_report.pdf ("Smoke, mirrors & hot air: How ExxonMobil uses big tobacco’s tactics to manufacture uncertainty on climate science")
  1908. https://ncse.ngo/files/nipcc.pdf ("Debunking the Heartland Institute’s efforts to deny climate science: A message from the National Center for Science Education")
  1909. https://climateinvestigations.org/who-is-paying-for-heartland-institute-climate-denial-palooza/
  1910. Youtube, Evidence Squared's video: "Heartland Institute's tobacco denial"
  1911. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/12/how-good-have-climate-models-been-at-truly-predicting-the-future [http://archive.is/gKRc3]
  1912. https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1202271427807678464 [http://archive.is/CdxzD]
  1913. http://www.exxonmobil.com/contributions/public_info.html [http://web.archive.org/web/20011031010631/www.exxonmobil.com/contributions/public_info.html]
  1914. https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Heartland_Institute_and_tobacco [http://archive.is/smsLd]
  1915. https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Heartland_Institute [http://archive.is/MtK2K]
  1916. "When good arguments do not work: post-dialectics, argument assemblages, and the networks of climate skepticism"
  1917. "The creation of industry front groups: the tobacco industry and “get government off our back”"
  1918. "Industry front groups: a tobacco case study"
  1919. "The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007"
  1920. "A new compilation of globally gridded night‐time marine air temperatures: The UAHNMATv1 dataset"
  1921. "Reconstructed global monthly land air temperature dataset (1880–2017)"
  1922. https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/its-true-that-the-current-carbon-dioxide-level-is-higher-than-any-time-in-human-existence/ [http://archive.is/NvNvd]
  1923. "Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model"
  1924. "The response of the ocean thermal skin layer to variations in incident infrared radiation" [further discussion in: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/09/why-greenhouse-gases-heat-the-ocean/ (http://archive.is/A4evB ; "Why greenhouse gases heat the ocean")]
  1925. https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/America_Misled.pdf ["America Misled: How the fossil fuel industry deliberately misled Americans about climate change"]
  1926. "Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years"
  1927. "The spectroscopic foundation of radiative forcing of climate by carbon dioxide"
  1928. "Mapping the climate sceptical blogosphere"
  1929. "Structure and content of the discourse on climate change in the blogosphere: The big picture"
  1930. https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport_spring09.pdf ("Is the U.S. temperature record reliable?" ; https://web.archive.org/web/20191215081031/https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport_spring09.pdf)
  1931. "Earth atmospheric land surface temperature and station quality in the contiguous United States"
  1932. "On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record"
  1933. "Benchmarking the performance of pairwise homogenization of surface temperatures in the United States"
  1934. "Homogenization of temperature data: An assessment"
  1935. "Quantifying the effect of urbanization on US Historical Climatology Network temperature records"
  1936. "Urban heat island assessment: Metadata are important"
  1937. "An intercomparison of temperature trends in the US Historical Climatology Network and recent atmospheric reanalyses"
  1938. "Evaluating the impact of US Historical Climatology Network homogenization using the US Climate Reference Network"
  1939. "Benchmarking homogenization algorithms for monthly data" (DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-89-2012)
  1940. "Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends" [https://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2011/05/13/anthony-watts-contradicted-by (http://archive.is/tONte)]
  1941. "An evaluation of the proposed mechanism of the adaptive infrared iris hypothesis using TRMM VIRS and PR measurements"
  1942. "Examination of new CERES data for evidence of tropical Iris feedback"
  1943. http://www.climate.be/textbook/chapter4_node7.html ("4.2.1 Water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks" ; http://archive.is/AK2Ug)
  1944. "A decade of EU-funded GMO research (2000 - 2010)"
  1945. "Comment on "The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity""
  1946. "Response to "Comment on "The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity"""
  1947. "Estimating sea surface temperature measurement methods using characteristic differences in the diurnal cycle"
  1948. Youtube, UQx Denial101x Making Sense of Climate Science Denial's video: "UQx DENIAL101x 5.2.3.1 The role of clouds in climate change"
  1949. "Special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate"
  1950. "The Anthropocene equation" [DOI: 10.1177/2053019616688022]
  1951. "100 years of progress in understanding the stratosphere and mesosphere"
  1952. "Tobacco industry response to a risk assessment of environmental tobacco smoke"
  1953. "Constructing “sound science” and “good epidemiology”: tobacco, lawyers, and public relations firms"
  1954. https://www.who.int/tobacco/media/en/TobaccoExplained.pdf ("Tobacco explained: The truth about the tobacco industry …in its own words")
  1955. "Evaluating models' response of tropical low clouds to SST forcings using CALIPSO observations"
  1956. "Re-examining the first climate models: Climate sensitivity of a modern radiative–convective equilibrium model"
  1957. "Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise"
  1958. "Anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, and the uptake, transport, and storage of excess heat in the climate system"
  1959. Youtube, UQx Denial101x Making Sense of Climate Science Denial's video: "UQx DENIAL101x 3.3.1.1 The greenhouse effect"
  1960. "An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations"
  1961. https://principia-scientific.org/more-scientists-question-whether-hiv-causes-aids/ [http://archive.is/4nd9i]
  1962. https://principia-scientific.org/opening-a-new-debate-on-hiv-and-the-causes-of-aids/ [http://archive.is/exVGo]
  1963. https://principia-scientific.org/how-the-academic-governmental-industrial-complex-stifles-scientific-innovation/ [http://archive.is/0GBs1]
  1964. https://principia-scientific.org/junk-scientist-michael-mann-now-promoting-hiv-aids-misinformation/ [http://archive.is/MPhfE]
  1965. "A human-induced hothouse climate?" [DOI: 10.1130/G131A.1]
  1966. "The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public's views of global warming, 2001–2010"
  1967. "Weather, climate, politics, or God? Determinants of American public opinions toward global warming"
  1968. "“Global warming” or “climate change”? Whether the planet is warming depends on question wording"
  1969. Stramma and Schmidtko's: "Global evidence of ocean deoxygenation"
  1970. "Manifestation, drivers, and emergence of open ocean deoxygenation"
  1971. "The ecology of plant extinction: rates, traits and island comparisons"
  1972. "New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants"
  1973. "The shape of things to come: Why is climate change so predictable?"
  1974. "Resource Letter GECC-2: The greenhouse effect and climate change: The intensified greenhouse effect"
  1975. "Inferred net aerosol forcing based on historical climate changes: A review"
  1976. "An emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical warming in CMIP6 models"
  1977. https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2014/09/30/frankenfoods-just-like-natural-counterparts-health-wise-at-least-if-youre-a-farm-animal/ [http://archive.is/Lu3e2#selection-451.0-467.337]
  1978. "Prevalence and impacts of genetically engineered feedstuffs on livestock populations"
  1979. "Bias from farmer self‐selection in genetically modified crop productivity estimates: Evidence from Indian data"
  1980. https://www.nature.com/articles/news990610-10 [http://archive.is/08Ypr#selection-955.672-955.914 ; "Genetic modification the natural way"]
  1981. "Four intracellular genomes direct weevil biology: nuclear, mitochondrial, principal endosymbiont, and Wolbachia"
  1982. "Impacts of mandatory GE food labeling: A quasi-natural experiment"
  1983. "A natural experiment: Using immersive technologies to study the impact of “all‐Natural” labeling on perceived food Quality, nutritional content, and liking"
  1984. "Natural experiments: an overview of methods, approaches, and contributions to public health intervention research"
  1985. "Making the ‘right’ choice based on experiments: regulatory decisions for food and health"
  1986. "Maternal benzene exposure and low birth weight risk in the United States: A natural experiment in gasoline reformulation"
  1987. "Ambient air pollution and adverse birth outcomes: a natural experiment study"
  1988. "Biological invasion as a natural experiment of the evolutionary processes: introduction of the special feature"
  1989. "Does climate determine broad‐scale patterns of species richness? A test of the causal link by natural experiment"
  1990. "Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment" [https://web.archive.org/web/20191013204337/https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf]
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  1992. "Observations of the rate and acceleration of global mean sea level change"
  1993. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level [http://archive.is/N3APb]
  1994. "Climate change 2013: Working Group I: The physical science basis; Chapter 1; Introduction"
  1995. https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/gd/2017/09/13/modern-day-sea-level-rise/ [https://web.archive.org/web/20191125143439/https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/gd/2017/09/13/modern-day-sea-level-rise/]
  1996. "Climate change 1995: The science of climate change; Technical summary"
  1997. "Rebuttal to climate myths" [DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-5757-8_24]
  1998. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/1912-article-global-warming/ ["Coal consumption affecting climate" ; http://archive.is/YtjP7 (https://www.facebook.com/SustainableBusinessNetworkNZ/photos/a.403513914925/10154115514619926/?type=3&theater {http://archive.is/81FrA})]
  1999. "On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar"
  2000. "The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature"
  2001. "The carbon dioxide theory of climatic change"
  2002. E. O. Hulburt, 1931: "The temperature of the lower atmosphere of the Earth"
  2003. Youtube, greenman3610's video: "Climate science 1956: A blast from the past"
  2004. Youtube, cheezwhizerd's video: "Climate change and industrial activity - Excursions in Science Radio Program from 1950s" ["Climate and industrial activity" from "Excursions in science", made by the General Electric Radio Program from 1956 - 1957]
  2005. Youtube, Dan Frederiksen's video: "Global warming film from 1950s"
  2006. Youtube, scudchasers' video: "The Unchained Goddess 1958 - Bell Science Hour (Discusses Weather / Climate Change)"
  2007. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/nov/05/scientists-warned-the-president-about-global-warming-50-years-ago-today [http://archive.is/OXyyo]
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  2009. September 17, 1969 letter to Richard Nixon from John Ehrlichman: https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/documents/jul10/56.pdf [https://web.archive.org/web/20191008195632/https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/documents/jul10/56.pdf]
  2010. "The far-infrared Earth" [DOI: 10.1029/2007RG000233]
  2011. https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/the-earth-was-not-warmer-in-medieval-times-town-hall-gregory-rummo/ (http://archive.is/Aw2Dd#selection-706.1-723.18)
  2012. "Donald Trump and vaccination: The effect of political identity, conspiracist ideation and presidential tweets on vaccine hesitancy"
  2013. "Populist politics and vaccine hesitancy in Western Europe: an analysis of national-level data"
  2014. "Vaccine hesitancy: More than a movement"
  2015. "What will Donald Trump’s presidency mean for health? A scorecard"
  2016. Letter to the editor: "Concerns about the attitudes of President Trump toward isolationism, vaccination, and climate change"
  2017. "It’s not all about autism: The emerging landscape of anti-vaccination sentiment on Facebook"
  2018. "Processing political misinformation: comprehending the Trump phenomenon"
  2019. "Vaccines do not cause autism: Pediatricians fight back against anti‐science"
  2020. "A survey instrument for measuring vaccine acceptance"
  2021. "Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations"
  2022. "Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition" [Discussion: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/11/resplandy-et-al-correction-and-response/ (http://archive.is/13zdh) ; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1585-5 (http://archive.is/SXDWa)]
  2023. "Record-setting ocean warmth continued in 2019"
  2024. "The climatological record of clear‐sky longwave radiation at the Earth's surface: evidence for water vapour feedback?"
  2025. "Comparison of observed and modeled cloud-free longwave downward radiation (2010–2016) at the high mountain BSRN Izaña station"
  2026. Youtube, AGU's video: "The Tyndall History of Global Warming Lecture GC43B" [title of presentation: "Early Agriculture: Land Clearance and Climate Effects"; author: William F. Ruddiman]
  2027. "The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago"
  2028. "The early anthropogenic hypothesis a year later"
  2029. "The early anthropogenic hypothesis: Challenges and responses"
  2030. "Can natural or anthropogenic explanations of late Holocene CO2 and CH4 be falsified?"
  2031. "Does pre-industrial warming double the anthropogenic total?"
  2032. "Late Holocene climate: Natural or anthropogenic?"
  2033. "Geographic evidence of the early anthropogenic hypothesis"
  2034. "Mitigation system threat partially mediates the effects of right‐wing ideologies on climate change beliefs"
  2035. Youtube, potholer54's video: "The cause of Australia’s bushfires – what the SCIENCE says"
  2036. Zharkova et al.: "Reply to the reviewer comments to paper 3 in SR", for: "Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale" [https://web.archive.org/web/20200128075803/http://mpee.northumbria.ac.uk/staff/slmv5/kinetics/Editor_Reviewer%20comments_v3b.pdf]
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  2041. https://skepticalscience.com/lessons-from-past-climate-predictions-akasofu.html [http://archive.is/1XEsc]
  2042. https://skepticalscience.com/comparing-global-temperature-predictions.html [http://archive.is/bsFqL]
  2043. https://www.quora.com/Do-you-feel-that-we-will-suffer-catastrophic-climate-change-in-your-lifetime-due-to-not-doing-enough-to-global-warming [http://archive.is/34kVb]
  2044. "A new merge of global surface temperature datasets since the start of the 20th century"
  2045. "Carbon dioxide, global warming, and Michael Crichton's “State of Fear”"
  2046. https://ensia.com/voices/climate-communication-michael-crichton-darth-vader/ [https://web.archive.org/web/20200130172147/https://ensia.com/voices/climate-communication-michael-crichton-darth-vader/]
  2047. "Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes"
  2048. "The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere"
  2049. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions"
  2050. "How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?"
  2051. "Potential problems measuring climate sensitivity from the historical record"
  2052. "Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data"
  2053. "Climate sensitivity from both physical and carbon cycle feedbacks"
  2054. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1225266569845993473 [http://archive.is/I8I0b#selection-4643.0-4815.16https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQEFcyCUEAUuCLT?format=png&name=900x900 (http://archive.is/mDnCU)]
  2055. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/01/uah-global-temperature-update-for-december-2018-0-25-deg-c/#comment-336247 [http://archive.is/l7LQo#selection-2407.0-2407.163 {"In the ensuing 10 years, I now would probably say my “best guess” is that more than half of warming since the 1950s was human-caused (consistent with the IPCC AR5). From a practical viewpoint, though, this means the Lewis & Curry observation-based energy budget estimate of 1.5-1.7 deg. C equilibrium climate sensitivity (which assumes ALL of the warming in the last 100+ years being human-caused) is lowered to about 1 deg. C."}]
  2056. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/01/on-its-hundredth-birthday-in-1959-edward-teller-warned-the-oil-industry-about-global-warming [http://archive.is/RfB92]
  2057. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/09/half-century-dither-denial-climate-crisis-timeline [http://archive.is/MbURX]
  2058. Edward Teller's: "Energy patterns of the future" in "Energy and man: A symposium"
  2059. "Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study"
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  2061. Youtube, potholer54's video: "How accurate are scientific predictions about climate?"
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  2063. http://archive.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2006/07/27/utilities_paying_global_warming_skeptic/ [http://archive.is/wip/oIyhc]
  2064. https://www.cato.org/publications/testimony/what-cost-examining-social-cost-carbon ["At what cost? Examining the social cost of carbon" ; http://archive.is/nnab9]
  2065. "Global atmospheric downward longwave radiation over land surface under all‐sky conditions from 1973 to 2008"
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  2067. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-confirms-2019-second-hottest-year-record [http://archive.is/U95XF]
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  2072. "Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading"
  2073. https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/3c-world [http://archive.is/KMTl3]
  2074. "When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?"
  2075. "September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100"
  2076. "Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice-free state"
  2077. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/voulgarakis_01/ ["Could Arctic Sea Ice Retreat Drive Changes in Air Pollution Levels?" ; http://archive.is/wip/R8brE]
  2078. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/SeaIce [http://archive.is/d4AA1]
  2079. "Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study"
  2080. "Climate change and trace gases" [DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2052]
  2081. "Pliocene climates: the nature of the problem"
  2082. "Middle Pliocene sea surface temperatures: a global reconstruction"
  2083. "Pliocene warmth, polar amplification, and stepped Pleistocene cooling recorded in NE Arctic Russia"
  2084. "Atmospheric CO2 decline during the Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations"
  2085. "Reconstruction of a continuous high-resolution CO2 record over the past 20 million years"
  2086. "CO2 over the past 5 million years: Continuous simulation and new δ11B-based proxy data"
  2087. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/199704_pliocene/page2.html [http://archive.is/tZ8Qd]
  2088. "Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic"
  2089. "Evidence for elevated mid-Pliocene temperatures in the Arctic Ocean based on marine Ostracoda" (Likely re-named version of this: "Microfaunal evidence for elevated Pliocene temperatures in the Arctic Ocean")
  2090. "Contribution of SST change to multidecadal global and continental surface air temperature trends between 1910 and 2013"
  2091. "Medical metaphors for climate issues" [DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9084-8]
  2092. "Climate change literacy and education: history and project overview"
  2093. "Global temperature stability by rule induction: An interdisciplinary bridge"
  2094. https://physics.ucf.edu/~britt/Climate/Reading1-Last%20great%20warming.pdf [Lee R. Kump's: "THE Last Great Global Warming"]
  2095. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/291/5504/566.1 ["It's official: Humans are behind most of global warming"; https://sci-hub.tw/10.2307/3082200]
  2096. "Global carbon budget 2019" [DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019]
  2097. https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/claims-of-a-coming-30-year-mini-ice-age-are-not-supported-by-science-the-sun/ [http://archive.is/wip/GaC0Z]
  2098. "A new methodology for assessing the energy use–environmental degradation nexus"
  2099. "The problem of the commons: Still unsettled after 100 Years"
  2100. http://ccdatacenter.org/documents/TempIncreaseExpectations.pdf [https://web.archive.org/web/20200211211911/http://ccdatacenter.org/documents/TempIncreaseExpectations.pdf]
  2101. https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/multimedia/global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide [http://archive.is/Y1GfF]
  2102. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/ [http://archive.is/bQlsl]
  2103. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/earth-just-hit-a-terrifying-milestone-for-the-first-time-in-more-than-800-000-years [http://archive.is/64fgR]
  2104. https://skepticalscience.com/schmittner-finds-low-climate-sensitivity.htm [http://archive.is/arqq6]
  2105. https://skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-serial-deleter-of-inconvenient-data.html [http://archive.is/pqYpJ#selection-2425.0-2625.88]
  2106. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-15858603 [https://web.archive.org/web/20200211213323/https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-15858603]
  2107. https://twitter.com/dan613/status/1227752880775450624 [http://archive.is/H3Xmo#selection-4268.0-4364.0 ; https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQnavFpWsAAOoe6?format=jpg&name=900x900 (http://archive.is/wip/VVhzL)]
  2108. "Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates"
  2109. "What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections?"
  2110. "Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity"
  2111. "Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing"
  2112. "Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth"
  2113. "The amplitude and origin of sea-level variability during the Pliocene epoch"
  2114. "Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy"
  2115. "Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO"
  2116. "The global ocean imprint of ENSO"
  2117. "ENSO-related global ocean heat content variations"
  2118. "Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise"
  2119. "Climate heretic: Judith Curry turns on her colleagues("I do receive some funding from the fossil fuel industry. My company [...] does hurricane forecasting [...] for an oil company, since 2007. During this period I have been both a strong advocate for the IPCC, and more recently a critic of the IPCC, there is no correlation of this funding with my public statements." ; https://archive.is/BL5R)
  2120. https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Judith_Curry [http://archive.is/7DF0T#selection-595.0-615.309]
  2121. https://www.desmogblog.com/judith-curry [http://archive.is/yqOQM#selection-945.0-963.69]
  2122. https://twitter.com/curryja/status/945371251861725184 [http://archive.is/kfQ0u#selection-7231.0-7840.0]
  2123. https://twitter.com/curryja/status/1213530840677810176 [http://archive.is/YPcro#selection-861.0-1107.87]
  2124. https://twitter.com/curryja/status/1201160237232934912 [http://archive.is/PQqpE#selection-5988.1-6253.20]
  2125. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/reasoning-analogy/ ["Analogy and analogical reasoning"; http://archive.is/84COF]
  2126. "Analogical reasoning" in "Encyclopedia of the Sciences of Learning" (DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-1428-6_788]
  2127. "Analogical reasoning and conceptual change: A case study of Johannes Kepler"
  2128. "Overcoming misconceptions via analogical reasoning: abstract transfer versus explanatory model construction"
  2129. "Developing a construct‐based assessment to examine students' analogical reasoning around physical models in Earth Science"
  2130. "Collaborative and self-generated analogies in science education"

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